Posted on 09/10/2009 2:27:17 AM PDT by BGHater
As Scoring Soars, One Professor Sees Parallels in Nature; the 'River Basin' Theory
When the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans open the NFL season Thursday night, they will headline a brand of football that is nearly unrecognizable from the days when Jack Lambert and Mean Joe Greene were pulverizing ball carriers at the line of scrimmage.
Today's NFL offenses spread out across the field, stretching defenses and creating wider holes of flow and penetration. In this game, balletic receivers like Pittsburgh's Santonio Holmes are the NFL's defining talents.
The NFL has become so fast and efficient that last season, teams each scored 22.03 points per game, the highest since 1967, while all the league's 32 teams combined for 11,279 points—the most in NFL history.
The game has become less cluttered. Offenses averaged just 3.09 turnovers (interceptions and fumbles) per game, the lowest of all time by more than 10%, and offensive lines allowed just 4.04 sacks per game—also the lowest ever. Even place kickers set a new mark: They made a record-high 84.5% of their field-goal attempts.
Some football thinkers believe these numbers speak to a temporary period of offensive dominance in the NFL—just one more high point in an endlessly fluctuating historical curve. But if you venture a bit beyond the particulars of football, to the principles of science, there's another argument to be made: that the NFL's high-speed, high-scoring offenses are a reflection of one of the laws of nature—the tendency of all things to evolve toward efficiency.
Adrian Bejan a professor of mechanical engineering at Duke University, likens the NFL's evolution to a river's effect on its basin. (Stay with us, here.)
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Specifically, while the average human has gained about 1.9 inches in height since 1900 ...
I thought it would be more than that. I’m 5’10”, just slightly over average. When I visit museums and check out the old clothing I’m always amazed at how small people were. The WW I uniforms on display are absolutely tiny. My father was a WW II vet and stood 5’8” - about average with his contemporaries. I check out my grandson and his friends and have to look up at them - they are over 6’ and still in their middle teens.
Paralysis by analysis.
The NFL has intentionally and incrementally tied the defense’s hands. Soon tackles will be abolished to be replaced with two-hand touch and a polite suggestion that the ballcarrier take a knee or step out of bounds.
The result is inflated scores and a cynical manipulation of results that would make the NBA hang its head in shame.
“The average human” is not the average American.
Offense, defense, passing, running, scoring, special teams...all stats that pale before the only one that really matters...Ratings.
Guess not. We must be growing faster than most.
that the NFL's high-speed, high-scoring offenses are a reflection of one of the laws of nature—the tendency of all things to evolve toward efficiency.
OK, but wouldn't that apply to the defense as well as the offense? Shouldn't the defense also evolve towards efficiency?
Over time, a river relentlessly wears away its banks and, as a result, water flows faster and faster toward its mouth. When obstacles fall in its way, say, a tree, or a boulder—or in the case of an NFL offense, beefy linebackers like the Baltimore Ravens' Ray Lewis or the Chicago Bears' Brian Urlacher—it will figure out how to wear those away, too.
Ray Lewis is a far cry from an inanimate rock or pile of dirt. In fact, Ray Lewis represents a defensive evolution. I daresay the stats against the Ravens are below the league average.
I'm not a big football fan, but I do agree with other posters that the rules have changed to benefit the offense. At some point, a genius coach will come along and figure out new ways to defend against the new offenses, and a new process of adjustment will begin.
Plus, the Steelers defense is outstanding, a clear contradiction to the thesis that offenses are dominant.
Big Ben is a proven winner, but he doesn’t have to put up gaudy passing numbers.
Thus defenses aren't allowed to sneeze at the QB without some kind of penalty. Now known as the "Brady Rule".
Yes, that was the thrust of my point, possibly not articulated very well. Defense rules the game, still.
Warhead vs. armor -- there's no such thing as an impenetrable defense. In the race for optimization, offense wins out over defense in the long run because defense is reactive to offense.
Except that armor is inanimate, like the river rocks and dirt. It's another false analogy. The offense has the ball, and calls the play. But the defense is active. It's not simply absorbing the blows, is it?
When the defense confuses the offense with complicated blitzes, with various players up on or near the line of scrimmage, they are technically on defense, but they are acting offensively--attacking.
It seems to me the offense has to react to innovations in defense just as much as the other way around. Wasn't the shotgun, and the west coast offense, a reaction to the way defenses were pressuring the quarterback? Like I said, I'm a casual football observer, so I could be wrong. But it seems to me the offense has to react to the defense. Or else why call audibles? Why play action? That's all "defending" against the defense.
I don’t see how the hashmarks change much. Yes when the ball is spotted on the college marks it means the near sideline is closer, but the far sideline is further, the over width of the field is the same. The only scoring I see as easier is field goals, with the ball always inbetween the posts the kicker has a lot less necessary steering. But the rest shouldn’t change that much, scoring tends to be higher in college, though that could be as much about the lack of experience in the defensive players as anything else.
One thing missing from the analysis of why scoring has increased is the change in how missed field goals are handled -- the 7-8 years of extra field position given up on a missed field goal has encouraged fewer teams to settle for 3 and play more aggressively, which I believe has added to, if only in small amount, the number of touchdowns scored.
By making one side of he field shorter, it becomes easier for the defense to defend runs to that side, and they can overload the "long side" more to stop that side as well. By making them spread out more evenly, it gives runners (and receivers on short passes) more chances to find gaps and weak spots, because they have two "good" sides to choose from.
Right, like the meandering lower Mississippi prior to channelization.
Yeah the guy is missing the leapfrog of NFL change. The NFL is a copycat league, somebody does something new and cool on offense and everybody steals it, then somebody does something cool on defense and everybody steals it. The Bears won the Superbowl with the 46 and other teams tried it out (given the risk levels of that defense it never really caught on as a base, but teams still use it once in a while). Then came the Niners and their West Coast Offense and not only did other teams steal it the stole the coaches that coached it (the “Walsh Tree” covered nearly half the league at one point). Then came the Pittsburgh’s rise back to regular contention on the strength of the Zone Blitz and 3-4 defense it works best with (at one time The Steelers and the Ravens were the only teams basing in the 3-4) and yup it spread. Then somebody (I think the Rams) imported the Spread Offense from college and that’s still being stolen. But never fear because the Pats brought in the Show Blitz And Don’t Blitz defense largely to confuse Peyton Manning but like so many other things that too has spread. Now, possibly, the hot new thing is the Wildcat, but I don’t think it has the consistent results necessary to be stolen, we’ll see.
It’s an interesting topic, actually. Thanks for the reply. I saw a good show on the NFL channel one sleepless night that broke down the various changes in offense and defense over the years. It taught me quite a bit about the evolution over the years. Based on what I know, I tend to think the various offense-friendly rule changes are probably the most significant factor. It’s been the same in baseball, except that it’s more a matter of field dimensions and equipment than rules—smaller parks, lighter bats, livelier balls, lower mounds, no high strike calls (anything above the belt is a ball), less tolerance for chin music. Sports organizations want offense. It’s only the die hard fan of a sport that likes a tight, low scoring contest. Gimme a 2-1 baseball game, cleanly played, 2 hours and change any day. But people like the long ball. And in football, they like big plays, lots of scoring. Who likes to see a defense grinding it out?
Nice synopsis. That’s exactly the stuff I’m talking about. I don’t know the specifics as well as you do, but yeah, that’s what I’m saying.
But the offense can overload that side as well. Extra tightends for run blocking, or bunched receivers. Plus there’s going to be a built in assumption of the play going to the wide side so reversals should have a better chance of succeeding.
I love to see defenses grinding it out. But I’m a freak. I think the best Superbowl ever played was Iron Curtain vs Purple People eater, 0-2 at the end of the first half, THAT’S football.
It’s simple...
Used to, receivers had to earn their way open. Now, they don’t.
The NFL is slowly but surely turning the game into two hand touch.
Yes sir.
Well, us Steeler fans don't mind so much. ;)
Personally, a well-played, hard-fought game is just as exciting to me if it's 3-0 or 51-49 (or that 1-0 nailbiter in baseball) -- I'm also a soccer fan, though, and you tend to get used to low scoring there as well.
“Sports organizations want offense. It’s only the die hard fan of a sport that likes a tight, low scoring contest. Gimme a 2-1 baseball game, cleanly played, 2 hours and change any day.”
By the way: I say the same thing when someone thinks international soccer is booring. A team holding on to a one point lead for the last 20 minutes of a game can be very exciting.
Yeah, you gotta be a deep, diehard. In any sport. I'm a baseball guy, and I LOVE seeing two dominant pitchers go at it. Hell, I've gone to Yankee Stadium several times to watch my Yankees get beat by excellent pitchers, just because I admire great pitching so much. I watched Glavine beat em in his prime. The Big Unit. Even Pedro, when he was with the Expos (he fanned 13 as I recall.)
My problem with football is that I don't think the camera captures the totality of the action. If follows the ball. I'd like to see more wide shots of the whole field. I'd like to see the QB dropping back, but also see the receivers going downfield, all in one shot. After all, that's the view the coordinators choose to look at. They don't want closeups. They want to see the whole spread.
If you get a good analyst, they can show replays and diagram what the linemen did, which way they blocked, etc, but it's all after the fact. You won't see a receiver bust a move on a defender until after it's happened. You don't really see the actual action, just ball movement. That may be one reason why viewers like big passes, big runs, and don't like to watch defense--you don't really get to see what's going on. Does that make any sense?
Same with hockey. In those sports, you have to care about the team. If you do care, then it’s very suspenseful. It’s almost like the whole game is one big sudden death. But if you don’t care a lot about either team, you don’t feel the tension. You don’t care if the offense is swarming the goal. You don’t feel the suspense. You don’t get that release when they score. So they try to make it like a summer blockbuster movie—lots of “action”, no plot.
I've often said you become a "sophisticated" view of this type of "ball sport" when you are watching the things that happen "off the ball". In basketball, it's seeing the player lay a screen or make a cut to get open for a layup... maybe even "see" the steal before it happens. In football, it's noticing the mismatches, catching the holding penalty before the flag is thrown, and watching how the linebackers react to the play-action fake. In soccer or hockey it's seeing the flow of the attack and anticipating who's going to be in position for the shot or redirection.
On the lines, the roles are reversed. Offensive linemen are essentially defensive in nature (protect the QB, protect the ball carrier, etc), while defensive linemen are offensive in nature (go after the ball carrier, try to sack the quarterback).
One of the things I love about Frank Beamer's "Beamerball" is that he emphasizes that offense, defense, and special teams ALL have opportunities (and really, the responsibility) to score points.
Very well put.
I am a barely occasional hockey viewer, but there are those times when you can just feel a goal coming. Even though it's damn hard to see the puck sometimes.
Good point. Hell, some aggressive d-backs are pretty offensive at reading the QB and intercepting the ball.
Count me in as well. One of the best games I ever attended was watching the local high school defend a 7-2 score through the pouring rain against their rival. Of course, I had a rooting interest in the game.
I'd say more mismatched teams in college ball. In the NFL, the difference in tallent between worst and first is a very small margin.
I’m not sure exactly what effect the hash marks make on the game. I think in high school, where they are even farther out, and talent is often mis-matched, they contribute to the success of sweeps and runners being able to break around the line.
'For all the sophistication of today's game—the greater number of coaches and players, the complexity of the plays, the emphasis on wide-open passing games, the rule changes that favor offense—scoring has scarcely increased. In 1959, the average number of points in an NFL game was 42.7. In 2008, the average number of points scored per game was 44.0.'
It's not as if the Offensive is dominating the Defense. The Defense evolves as well, the amount of specialist for every position is impressive and the evolution continues.
One of the things the Steeler offense has been able to do over the years, and do it by design, is hold the ball and win the 'time of possession' game. First, the other teams 'speed' does not mean a thing if they are sitting on the bench. Second. Playing defense is more physically demanding than offense. If you can force the opponents defense to spend too much time on the field, by the 4th quarter, they will be physically exhausted and prone to mistakes.
Style points don't matter and a flashy 80 yard bomb does not put any more points on the board than a 10 minute long smash mouth 80 yard touchdown drive. But the 10 minute drive does far more damage to the other team's chances of scoring or stopping future scores.
Games are shorter now because of clock rule changes (to keep games ~3 hours, but provide commercial time). You’d have to factor that in somehow before an honest comparison could be made.
I’ve seen that on Dish Network a few timesbefore, where they have the regular game telecast on one channel, and have other channels that offer other camera views.
Watch the NFL films show on Herb Adderly. Almost every tackle he made would be a penalty today. Players like Nitschke and Butkus would be fined every week.
I like your idea re: camera views. I feel that way about baseball. I’d prefer to watch at bats from behind the catcher, not behind the pitcher. And if it’s gonna be behind the pitcher, I’d like it dead on, not at an angle. It’s be awesome if it were like a video game, and you could cycle through 3 or 4 different angles. Heh, for all our troubles these days, things can’t be THAT bad if this is what I’m complaining about .
I don’t know if you have to be a deep fan, I’m not a big fan of baseball but I prefer a pitchers duel over a shootout. I think you have to be a fan of tension. In a defensive battle, regardless of the sport, both teams are one screw up from losing, and that’s very exciting to watch, every pitch matters, every swing could win the game.
You totally make sense, a lot of the football writers complain about the ball follow cameras and want the coach’s camera view (which the networks get but only ever use on replays). Hopefully as the age of technology progresses we’ll be able to pick our own primary feed.
There’s a lot that plays into the higher college scores. Being a defensive football junkie I don’t watch much college, but I actually would like the college hashmarks in the NFL to make field goals harder, I’m getting tired of 50 yard+ field goals and I think if the kickers had to steer the ball more that would go away.
Ahem - 5-10 average my friend, hate to burst your bubble.
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