*** Free (individual) Past Performances for ALL KD starters:
"Brisnet's weekly updated PDF past performance file of Kentucky Derby hopefuls"
(includes video for many prior races):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contender-pps
Posted on 05/02/2009 6:17:31 AM PDT by gate2wire
Churchill Downs officials confirmed trainer Jeff Mullins has scratched I Want Revenge from the May 2 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). A press conference will be held at 9 a.m.
I Want Revenge was the morning-line favorite for the Derby. The son of Stephen Got Even had won his last two starts impressively, the Wood Memorial (gr. I) and Gotham Stakes (gr. I). He had a bullet work on April 28 but a physical problem has forced him to be withdrawn from the race.
Bred by David Lanzman, he is owned in partnership by Lanzman, IEAH Stables, Puglisi Racing, Charles Winner, Michael Dubb, and Steven Marshall. I Want Revenge is trained by Jeff Mullins and was to be ridden by 19-year-old jockey Joe Talamo.
Less than two weeks ago, favoritism in the Derby appeared to be between Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Quality Roadand I Want Revenge. Now, neither will run, with Quality Road battling quarter-crack problems.
In the advance wagering on-track May 1 for the Derby, Friesan Firewas the pick at 9-2.
Hate when that happens...
What a bummer.... I was planning on watching I Want Revenge win the Derby today.. Damn shame for Talamo.
I met my retired ex-Boss yesterday.. he had a early period bet on IWF at 18-1!!! I’m sure he’s bummed today.
I still love Friesan Fire.. but, at 3/1? Or lower? I dunno.
I might have to put a little on Dunkirk today. I just have a feeling... of course, that may just be remorse.... for all the money I left at Churchill yesterday.
Good Luck All!
Daaaamn... Well, there’s still a field of 19. Excellent opportunity for some comparatively large show payouts, even with favorites. I’d figure that even a 3 or 4 to 1 shot will pay about $5.00 for show. ie, a $200 show bet returns $500 ($300 profit).
*** Free (individual) Past Performances for ALL KD starters:
"Brisnet's weekly updated PDF past performance file of Kentucky Derby hopefuls"
(includes video for many prior races):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contender-pps
For more info at the site (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/), hover your mouse pointer/cursor over "Racing Information" and select from the drop-down menu.
_______________________________
Countdown to the Crown (ESPN):
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown09/index
_______________________________
National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA):
(Free official Past Performances for many of the big stake races)
http://www.ntra.com/
In my last post to this thread, last night, I said
“I just don’t think I Want Revenge will win”.
I AM A GENIUS.
HE WON’T WIN
This leaves it open for a whole bunch of horses,
namely Gen. Quarters, West Side Bernie, the two
“Arab” horses, Pioneerofthenile,etc. Papa Clem.
Unfortunately the money that woulda flowed to IWR
making him a heavy fave, will now be distributed
evenly among 3 or 4 others, with probably only tepid
favorites, which might be good, but also generate more $$$$ distributed among horses that woulda been big longshots, which could be bad, as far as payoffs are concerned.
Wow! He must be feeling pretty sick about now, although it was far from a sure thing that IWR would have put in another powerful race after the last one.
Now I have to restructure everything. I had Revenge everywhere. Tri’s, supers, pk 3s, pk 4s...once I get over this hangover, see what I can come up with.
Ankle injury. ANOTHER one bites the dust...
Is that what it was?
I'm not familiar with how betting on horse races works. What happens to the bet if the horse is scratched from the race? Does the bettor get his money back, or is that just part of the risk of making an early bet?
Just heard it on Fox News. Couldn’t find a thing about the press conference on line, but there was something about two vets being present and then Fox said, “Ankle injury.”
... filling was discovered in an ankle...
The soft tissue injury was discovered the morning of the race. Dr. Foster Northrup watched as I Want Revenge jogged on the blacktop, and “he jogged fine,” the equine practitioner said at a press conference. But, “the inflammation was there.
“He X-rayed normal and the ultrasound was normal,” Dr. Northrup said. “There is no diagnosis at this time. More sophisticated tests will need to be done.”
If the bet is in the early pools, you lose it. If made at the track yesterday or today, you get it back.
Yea... I watched the news conference here on local TV. He had some inflammation in a front ankle, couldn’t run it off.
Funny, Mullins mentioned that they were concerned about the track being sealed and hard... but, the weather people are saying
NO MORE RAIN!!!!
I’m about 95% sure the track will be FAST by race time. We got a lot of rain last night, but... I’m sure the rack was sealed all night. Supposed to have some sun and wind today.. it will dry fast.
Yesteday, POTN was up to 8-1. He’s getting TRASHED by the local radio people.. because he hasn’t run on dirt...
I dunno.. that horse EXPLODED in the RB Lewis when he was afraid he wouldn’t win... I think, he’s back on the top of my tickets... with FF
Doesn’t sound too serious other than it occurred on Derby morning. Glad to hear he will probably be fine except for missing his chance at the BIGGIE. Probably he’ll be back for the Preakness in good order unlike some of the others who have had to drop out.
Every where I’ve ever bet you got your money back if you “cashed” it in or “changed your bet” right up to the time the gates opened. If your jockey falls off and the horse comes in first or last, you lose.
Thanks for the info. I’ve gotta work today and won’t be able to get to a track to place a bet...but if I could it would be...
$2 perfectas...Chocolate Candy with (and reversed)...
Musket Man
Mr. Hot Stuff
Hold Me Back
$5 perfectas...Chocolate Candy with (and reversed)...
Fresian Fire
Papa Clem
Dunkirk
$20 perfecta...Chocolate Candy with (and reversed)...
Pioneer of the Nile
$82 Total Bet
Good luck horseplayers! I’ll check back tonight to pick up my imaginary windfall.
You work too much.
Get your priorities straight, will ya. :-)
I just went to the DRF site, and as of yet they don’t even have the news of IWR being out.
But FWIW, here, as far as I can determine is what the
anal-retentive (yet horseracing genius) Steven Crist
proposes as a good Derby bet. Done yesterday, he still has
IWR along with Dunkirk as the two keyed favorites/
I have substituted Pioneer for IWR/
This would be a good super, whether for multiples of
ten cents , or $1. If GQ gets 2nd or 3rd at 10 or 15-1, with a longie
fourth , it COULD be a spectacular superfecta.
15,16 with 6,7,12 with 5,6,7,12,16 with ALL
with either of two faves winning, that probably
will never make a $29 K superfecta, like in ‘07
but I find it interesting, and just found out
these picks that Crist obviously favors General
Quarters, like I do. GQ is #12, and he puts him 2nd
and 3rd.
“once I get over this hangover....”
——try a little hair of the horse that bit ya.
*** Free (individual) Past Performances for ALL KD starters:
"Brisnet's weekly updated PDF past performance file of Kentucky Derby hopefuls"
(includes video for many prior races):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/racing-information/contender-pps
Too many horses. It’s a given that not all will run.
My picks are Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Just on the names and my usual Derby ‘feeling’.
More often than not I have the winner or my picks are in the top three. Lets see.
My late father always picked the gray horse( if there was one). This year it’s Dunkirk. He would have bet a lot on that horse because of the name( military man) and the color.
The Derby is always fun to watch. Let’s see if any Freepers can pick the win/place/show!
I pick based on name, look and I’m a bit of a stickler for pedigree. My pick this year is General Quarters. He looks cool, I like his name (a military term for a call to battle), and his pedigree nearly gave me a heart attack (I found 5 Derby winners in his pedigree going back 5 generations: Northern Dancer (64), Secretariat (73), Seattle Slew (77), Affirmed (78), and Unbridled (90)
Summer Bird is ‘fresh’ in the sense that he’s had only 3 prior races. However, all 3 of his races have been run in a relatively short period of time. Not so good. But hey, ya never know! Once again, show payouts are usually very good for triple crown races. The combination of large fields with everybody and their brother betting the race usually assures it (loads of inexperienced horse players). ie, the more money bet on a horse to win, place or show determines how much it will pay for win, place or show (each is a separate betting pool). Inexperienced horse players typically make their choices based on anything but a horse’s true abilities. This brings UP the odds on the serious contenders, whether it be for win, place or show.
Me too. Order of finish ... 12-6-16.
I know the feeling. I had a nice 14-1 ticket on Buddha. (The difference is that Buddha would have won.)
ML/NJ
Hey, Why didn’t they rerun the whole race from start to finish like they always do? WTF?
Don’t know. I didn’t notice. I lost my ass watching the first time...didn’t need to watch it again. :-)
What a wild finish to on otherwise great day.. I hit 6 exactas in a row from the 3 through 8th... then, things cooled off a little.... I hit (ONCE AGAIN) on Einstein... some things never change. It amazes me that people would bet against that horse.
I feel so freakin stupid... I made all my Derby bets at ~ 3 pm. Just before I went to make them, I was looking through the program, and noticed that I had stratched out Calvin Borel’s horse... I actually said to my guest, “I don’t understand what Borel is doing on such a dog!”. My guest bet a $3 ticket on him after that... but, of course, I didn’t.
I swear, if I’d seen that he was 50-1, I would have dropped $5 on it.. but, where I was at the time, I couldn’t see the board... and, later, I didn’t make the connection.
That... is just stupid. But, hey! The Woodford was starting to kick in by then. :-)
Fantastic weather... beautiful horses... and, WOMEN!
For any of you living in Louisville, my wife is prominently featured in a C-J photo... the one of Kid Rock. Our hospitality suite was situated directly on the Red Carpet!
Valerie Bertenelli and Kim K are smokin!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.