Posted on 05/01/2008 5:23:30 AM PDT by gate2wire
Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. said earlier this week that he could not imagine that a post position could get Big Brown beat on Saturday. That conviction will be put to the extreme test when Big Brown breaks from the outside post in a full field of 20 in the $2,211,800 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) at Churchill Downs.
Big Brown drew the 16th pick on Wednesday morning in the traditional pill pull that determined the selection for post positions. Dutrow and owner IEAH Stables had four other options—posts one, two, 18, and 19—by the time they chose their spot in the afternoon selection program at 4th Street Live in downtown Louisville.
The Derby has been run with 20 or more starters 15 times, and the only winner from post 20 was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. The wide draw did not sway Churchill oddsmaker Mike Battaglia from making Big Brown the 3-to-1 morning-line favorite for the 134th Derby.
(Excerpt) Read more at thoroughbredtimes.com ...
Horse, (sire), jockey, trainer, and morning-line odds
1. Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft), Julien Leparoux, Nick Zito, 20-to-1;
2. Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat), Eibar Coa, Barclay Tagg, 15-to-1;
3. Anak Nakal (Victory Gallop), Rafael Bejarano, Nick Zito, 30-to-1;
4. Court Vision (Gulch), Garrett Gomez, Bill Mott, 20-to-1;
5. Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song), Gabriel Saez, Larry Jones, 20-to-1;
6. Z Fortune (Siphon [Brz]), Robby Albarado, Steve Asmussen, 15-to-1;
7. Big Truck (Hook and Ladder), Javier Castellano, Barclay Tagg, 50-to-1;
8. Visionaire (Grand Slam), Jose Lezcano, Michael Matz, 20-to-1;
9. Pyro (Pulpit), Shaun Bridgmohan, Steve Asmussen, 6-to-1;
10. Colonel John (Tiznow), Corey Nakatani, Eoin Harty, 4-to-1;
11. Z Humor (Distorted Humor), Rene Douglas, Bill Mott, 30-to-1;
12. Smooth Air (Smooth Jazz), Manoel Cruz, Bennie Stutts Jr., 20-to-1;
13. Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack), Richard Migliore, James Kasparoff, 20-to-1;
14. Monba (Maria's Mon), Ramon Dominguez, Todd Pletcher, 15-to-1;
15. Adriano (A.P. Indy), Edgar Prado, Graham Motion, 30-to-1;
16. Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday), Calvin Borel, David Carroll, 20-to-1;
17. Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway), John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 20-to-1;
18. Recapturetheglory (Cherokee Run), E.T. Baird, Louie Roussel III, 20-to-1;
19. Gayego (Gilded Time), Mike Smith, Paulo Lobo, 15-to-1; and
20. Big Brown (Boundary), Kent Desormeaux, Richard Dutrow Jr., 3-to-1.
Monba Monba Monba....
can’t eliminate Big Brown, but statistics are against him. Grade 1 races are won by GRADE 1 HORSES, as James Quinn said 25 years ago, and that really only encompasses for the KD, FIVE HORSES, and they are: Both Pletcher horses: MONBA and Cowboy Cal ,Colonel John, Tale of Ekati, and Big Brown. Those are likely to be the top five and two of them are longshots. Add the two “Vision” horses as possible longshots to sweeten a superfecta, and you’ve got a potential big payoff. But I am going with BOTH Pletcher horses, especially MONBA to finish first, in a suprfecta that will pay handsomely. GRADE ONE RACES ARE WON By GRADE ONE HORSES> That limits the possibilities to about SEVEN (OUT OF TWENTY) at the most. COUNT ON IT.
In a 20 horse race, too many things can happen. Picking a 3 to 1 horse is not a good bet.
Yeah, I read The Handicapper’s Condition Book a long time ago.
Not to try and talk anyone out of Monba, but his best Beyer is a 92...must improve a ton.
Weak field this year, Big Brown a standout despite all the questions.
Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Z Fortune, Pyro will be in my supers.
For amusement only.
I’ll take 3-1 on a deserving favorite EVERY TIME and laugh all the way to the bank.
Perhaps. But coming from the 20th position, it will take a perfect race from the best horse to win. It will not be an easy task for even the best horse, so I wouldn’t touch that bet.
If he stays at 3-1, I’ll be in with both fists...and loving it.
You might remember that I’m the guy, last year, who had a superfecta ticket that put Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin and Sedgefield 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th. THat was the line up but a few yards from the wire when wildandcrazyguy ran down Sedgefield, the longest price in the field, exactly DOUBLE the odds of the 29-1 longshot wildandcrazyguy. THAT super paid about $29000. MINE would have paid $100,000/
There will be another inevitable big superfecta on Saturday. I have been analyzing this race for a few hours now. I will post a complete horse by horse evaluation and analysis on the Derby later tonight. FOR AMUSEMENT ONLY of course. And should I say again, but this time mumbling-—
“Monba, Monba, Monba? But just wait till you see my analysis and possible Super combos. God, I love the Derby season.........what odds do you think Monba will be? Can’t see him going off at the ML 15-1. Think it will be no higher than 10-1. Anyway a full report follows before midnight tonight.
I like Colonel John, Pyro and Tale of Ekati.
Longshot:
Visionaire
Eight Belles for me, the racing version of gender politics. LOL
I won’t be voting for Hillary in the election.
I’ve been analyzing this race since January, and Big Brown is a man among boys(and a girl.) :-)
I’ve been a bit quiet because so much can happen before they even get to Louisville.
Anyway, I remember what you did last year.
Look forward to your post tonight.
I absolutely agree that supers are the way to go to hit a huge number.
I want to see the surrounding races for pk-4s.
Big Brown got the last slot in the Florida Derby and it didn’t seem to bother him. But that was 12 not 20.
Will definitely use Pyro and Visionaire, might toss Col. John in.
Think Ekati is too slow. They were crawling at the end of the Wood. Slow Beyer.
Good luck.
I would not be surprised to see the filly run well. At least she has run a decent speed figure.
True. In this case, BB has the whole length of the stretch(a long stretch) to get in position and the other speed is also outside. Bob Black Jack should be the first to the rail. Expect BB to get over just fine.
I think Monba will get a lot of play. 8 or 9 to 1 maybe.
Is that mint ready?
Funny, I didn’t realize it was this weekend, I just heard it on the radio. To answer your question, ready or not here they come.
Ah, I see, you don’t care about the racing, you’re only interested in the drinks. :-)
Hey, a fan’s a fan. ;^)
Now that I’ve seen the Racing Form, I’m of the opinion that, as long as Desormeaux doesn’t fall off, Big Brown wins by 10.
http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08CDkentuckyderby.pdf
For those so inclined, the Oaks/Derby double—Pure Clan, Big Brown.
I'm still looking for my horse. Bob Black Jack's connections choosing # 13 when they could have had the 2 hole tells me they're not wrapped too tight, so I'm now looking for another long shot as a back-up to my as yet unselected main horse.
HERE < AS PROMISED, is my analysis and appraisal of
what I consider to be the contenders in the 2008 DERBY:
I will list the first 14 horses in order of their
AVERAGE EARNINGS PER START ( a handy guideline I always use just for the hell of it) and then make comments on the horse himself. Predictably most of the horses likely to be
favorites are in the first tier:
#20-—BIG BROWN aeps: $ 221,000
-—ON PAPER, YES, he does look like a superhorse:
3 wins from 3 starts, and all by healthy margins.
ALL on the lead, but one , the Fla. Derby from the #12
post. ALL also in good times, and the last two Beyers both 106. SO, the real consideration is not that he is in any way “cheap speed” but that now he goes off from the #20 post, meaning that 19 other horses inside him are going to be vying to save ground, get to the rail or establish position. So far, he has dominated his fields by being the first out and not only staying there but extending his lead in the final stages. Does he know how to close? Can he change his running style for just this race, or is he counting on being “sent” and leading wire to wire the way he’s used to? He’ll be 5-2 or lower, but I wouldn’t bet on him: he may be able to win ONLY ONE WAY, and I don’t count on him doing the for the first time, or breaking the hex on post #20
#9 PYRO aeps $150,000 NOT a win candidate for me, though he has performed well in 2 of his 3 G. 1 races.
What happened to him in the Blue Grass? My horse, Monba, beat him and NINE others. I see him possibly in the top 4.
He too is a closer, but not as dramatic a closer as a few others in here.
#10 COLONEL JOHN aeps $128,000
Obviously a quality horse—has raced EXCLUSIVELY on polytrack, with only one workout on the Churchill surface, which was a quite fast 57.8 Breeze. So, to me, he looks like one who will go out too fast, show speed for
a mile or more , then fade. Could get 3rd or 4th though.
#2 TALE OF EKATI -—aeps-—$128,000
He doesn’t have competitive Beyers, but he did win a G. 1
race. He looks to me like an improving horse, who may just “pop” and run the race of his life on Saturday.
LIKE HIM A LOT.
#19 GAYEGO aeps $124,600-— TO ME, even though this is his first G. 1, and that would seem to disqualify him, he might freak in this race, and make a good showing of himself, maybe taking 3 rd or 4th in the superfecta.
A geniune sleeper who should be paid attention to.
#14 MONBA aeps $115,000 -—My personal sentimental
favorite because the first time I saw him, in the Blue Grass just weeks ago, I picked him as the OBVIOUS winner, and bet him handsomely, and he paid nearly $20 to win.
I think he will be very tough coming down the stretch, possibly with BIG BROWN, and a few closers threatening in the final 8th. He seems to me a horse that is always learning and finding his way and meeting challenges. As good as any horse in the Derby because of that. AND an interesting fact, to me anyway,is that Monba and the likely favorite BIG BROWN , are the most lightly raced horses in the Derby, Monba with 5 and Brown with 3 races.
Monba won’t be a real longshot, though, more likely 8-1.
#11 Z HUMOR aeps : $77,550 —— could only manage THIRD in the very small Illinois Derby field (7 horses)
Has not won a G. 1 race-—I think he is sure to get lost in this field and finish way up the track, easily the bottom 10.
#6 Z FORTUNE aeps: $64000 An intriguing horse, even without a G. 1 race in his PPs. He will be pretty long, and looks to me like he is another who could close for 3rd or 4th.
#13 BOB BLACK JACK aeps $63100
Another horse who has raced only on Polytrack.
He will definitely be bet—he owns a huge 109 Beyer, but
for a 6f sprint at Santa Anita. I can’t fault him for anything, but he is another who looks more like he excels at sprints, and may go out too fast too early and burn out.
Don’t see him conceivably doing any better than 4th.
#4 COURT VISION aeps $61000
Like the other “Vision” horse, VISIONAIRE, I find him very intriguing.Got a VERY close up 3rd in the WOOD after
closing from the clouds. The Derby may set up even better for him, with its slower pace. Has the look of a potential MAJOR UPSETTER in the Derby, probably at a “good price” I will put him in most or all Superfectas.
END OF PART ONE
will post PART TWO tomorrow night.
Of course, I have no idea what I’m talking about.
But I AM opinionated, and I put my money where my mouth is.
Thanks but did you pick your tagline right after reading my analysis?
HERE IS PART TWO OF MY ANALYSIS:
Horses who have NO chance of getting into the top four, and so can be eliminated from super wagering
# 1 Cool Coal Man, Anak Nakal, Eight Belles, Big Truck,
Z Humor, Adriano, Denis of Cork, Recapture the Glory.
That’s 8 out of 20 horses.
Denis of Cork will be along price, but also overbet anyway because every Irishman in the world will have a few bucks on him.
The horse that doesn’t seem to be getting much buzz at all is SMOOTH AIR, but he ran behind BIG BROWN very creditably in the Fla. Derby.Could surprise and get into the super.
On paper the best horse in the race looks like Colonel
John, but you know he won’t get more money than BIG BROWN,
who’s already been anointed as a superhorse who will prove it on Derby Day. People are expecting Secretariat’s Belmont from him, but I don’t think they’ll get it.I can see the COLONEL winning, more than I can see BIG BROWN winning.
****************
By far the most interesting thing to watch for in this Derby is what the strategy of BIG BROWN will likely be:
With NINETEEN horses to his left, will he wing it and try to clear the field in one fell swoop, or just settle for
getting in the first tier a quarter mile out of the gate, gauging position and how and when to move?
How many of the other nineteen horses , many of whom are going to TRY to win this Derby, are going to ALLOW BIG BROWN to clear them in the early stages, fearing it will likely be all over if they do, knowing how he’s won his other races. Another factor to consider is that Pletcher may be putting out COWBOY CAL to engage BIG BROWN, assuming
BB gets out front right out of the gate, and burn him out, with MONBA stalking the pace , and waiting to make a stretch run. Either way, in a field this big I don’t expect more than one or two of the TOP FIVE in odds to make it into the superfecta>
The horses I like for the top four spots are
Monba, Court Vision, Tale of Ekati, Big Brown, Colonel John,Gayego and Smooth Air.
That’s enough for now. I have to look up the classic
Mint Julep recipe.
Crap!! If I’d had ANY idea Monba would be going off at
30-1 , I wouldve bet him big to win. Instead I bet a healthy win/place on Court Vision, who’s somewhat less I think right now. Have about $50 worth of $1 supers, 3 box 4-14 exactas and win/place only on COURT VISION. 19 minutes to post. GOOD LUCK TO ALL>
Pathetic! MONBA finishes LAST! Someone must have known something , since he by all rights should’ve been 10-1, and he winds up going off at THIRTY to ONE. THe longshot filly finishes second but the effort literally kills her, and she’s euthanized on the track. Surprisingly Denis of Cork finishes 3rd, and another horse I was hot on, Tale of Ekati, finishes fourth. ONE favorite and THREE longshots yields a $58,000 superfecta. PYRO, it seems was compromised and knocked out of it right out of the gate, and no one seems to know what happened to Colonel John.
COWBOY CAL seemed to be in contention somewhere around the stretch, but it was all BIG BROWN once Desormeaux put him in gear. Truly awesome
to watch the live race, then see two replays, one from
an aerial view, and hear Desormeaux’s narrative. THIS looks finally like a Triple Crown Winner. It will be a great day for the sport, NOT TO MENTION UPS~~~
Hillary/EIght Belles wound up getting second , but it killed her.
This game keeps you humble.
Had the winner...can’t celebrate. Heartbroken about the filly. Can’t believe some of the trash I’m reading on other threads. Some folks find this funny...amazing.
That track vet has been getting some serious TV airtime these past few years. I'm thinking NBC keeps a camera handy real close.
What a heartbreaking ending.
I’m almost getting to the point where I don’t want to watch these races anymore.
I hear you. Seen it too many times...but it’s part of racing/life.
Have no doubt her connections are already back at work...life goes on. :-(
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