Posted on 04/06/2008 4:00:10 PM PDT by Zuben Elgenubi
Myriad story lines have already materialized in advance of this week's upcoming Masters Tournament. Tiger Woods, the Augusta weather, course conditions -- win or lose, wet or dry, difficult or, well, really difficult, we'll be discussing each of these ad nauseam between now and when the final putt drops on Sunday evening.
Others will develop along the way -- an unfamiliar challenger to the green jacket, an unseen controversy lurking in the locker room.
With that in mind, the Weekly 18 examines the biggest questions entering the year's first major, beginning with the one guy everyone has his eye on.
1. One for the thumb?
From last year's pre-Masters edition of the Weekly 18:
"For those scoring at home, [Tiger Woods has] four Masters titles in 10 starts as a professional -- a .400 batting average that leaves him just two Augusta victories shy of Jack Nicklaus' career record."
After falling two strokes shy of Zach Johnson in '07, Woods is now 4-for-11 -- still batting a pretty respectable .364 amongst the azaleas, but far below the standard he's set for himself.
While Woods is the prohibitive favorite every single time he tees it up -- and even more so at the Masters -- recent history proves he's far from a sure thing. After beginning his pro career as a 50 percent winner (3-for-6) at Augusta National, the number has dropped to 20 percent (1-for-5) since 2003.
That said, everything certainly looks to be in place for Woods to score green jacket No. 5. The world's top-ranked golfer is playing what he calls the best golf of his career and he's already said winning all four majors is "easily within reason" this year.
Catching Jack may be only a matter of time, but it remains to be seen whether Woods can inch one step closer this week. At least one thing is certain: Victory or not, Tiger Woods will be the talk of the town come Sunday evening.
2. Still getting even?
Four years ago, Phil Mickelson buried that BPTHNWAM (lest ye forget, that's Best Player to Have Never Won a Major) label in the bottom of Augusta National's 18th hole, clinching his initial major victory. Two years later, he triumphed once again in impressive fashion. Based on that pattern, we can assume Lefty is a virtual Masters lock in even-numbered years, right?
Maybe not, but he does have some positive vibes going into next week. "I've had a good couple of weeks of practice," Mickelson said before the Houston Open on Wednesday. "Last week, I guess, and was at Augusta and had a good couple of practice sessions. Expect to play well."
3. Time for a youth movement?
What do Adam Scott, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia each have in common? They're all under 30, among the world's top 15 golfers and have never won a major. Experience plays a major factor at Augusta, and though these guys are young, each has captured a top-10 here in the past.
Any -- or all -- of them could be hanging around the leaderboard come Sunday, but do they have what it takes to become the first twentysomething major champ since Geoff Ogilvy in 2006? That remains to be seen.
4. Big Easy ... finally?
File this under the category of "Just when you least expect it": There have been so many times when Ernie Els entered the year's first major as a popular pick to win … and so many times he has come up just short. From 2000 to 2004, he finished between second and sixth place each time.
This season, the Big Easy already has a win at the Honda Classic but also has struggled at times and had to withdraw from this past week's Houston Open due to an illness. The result? Though Els may be on the short list of players who can win this week, he hardly heads the list of favorites. It's been said for years that his 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame is built to wear a green jacket; could it finally happen this week?
5. Mother, may I?
What does Mother Nature have in store for Augusta this week? Well, if those little vertical dotted lines emerging from the clouds in the weather forecast graphic are accurate, we're in for a wet Masters. That means we'll see a course playing every bit the 7,445 yards it says on the scorecard, leaving big bombers licking their lips in anticipation.
6. What will be the phrase that pays?
Last year's terminology of the tournament was "fast and firm," as cool climes and gusting winds caused the course to play like something we usually see at the British Open. If the rain does indeed reign this week, expect to hear the emergence of "long and strong" to describe not only how Augusta National is playing, but the big-hitting players who will invariably find themselves in contention.
7. Par for the course?
Last year's winning score of 1-over-par 289 was tied for the highest final total in Masters history. So it stands to reason that a course that will potentially play much longer will yield an even higher number, right?
Wrong. With added length from the rain comes softer greens, so expect to see a rise in players' greens in regulation stats. Sure, the course's state-of-the-art SubAir system will keep 'em from firing at the flagstick too often, but expect to see more darts landing pin-high.
8. How low can they go?
The best-ever single-round score at the Masters? A 9-under 63, shot by Nick Price in 1986 and equaled by Greg Norman 10 years later. Last year, Padraig Harrington and Paul Casey came closest to matching this feat, but they were still five strokes off the pace, firing matching 68s in the second round. Can someone get red-hot this time around? Past history indicates that, well, they may not want to. After all, neither Price nor Norman went on to win the green jacket.
9. Back-to-back Zach attacks?
The defending champ recently told us the secret to succeeding at Augusta National. "Hitting it fewer times than everyone else," said the wannabe jokester. Gee, thanks for the news flash, Zach. So, can he do it again one year later? An encore presentation seems unlikely, but don't expect Johnson to vary from his strategy of laying up on each of the par-5 holes and relying on his wedge game to make red numbers.
10. Could an unknown emerge?
Rich Beem, Shaun Micheel, Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton have each captured major championships this decade, despite owning previous low profiles. Last year, Johnson became the unlikeliest Masters champ since Larry Mize in 1987 (or Sandy Lyle in '88, if you consider the fact that no Brit had ever won before). Granted, the Masters' limited field doesn't leave much room for any sleepers even getting through the front gates, but someone unfamiliar to the casual fan will find himself in the mix. The trick is figuring out who.
11. Europe, who's up?
Ireland's Padraig Harrington broke a string of 31 straight major championships without a victory for Europe when he claimed the Claret Jug at Carnoustie last year. So, will the blokes from the other side of the pond have to wait another eight years before finding their next major winner? Don't count on it.
But the next European champ may not be a youngster like Garcia or Rose. If recent -- and not-so-recent -- history holds true, a thirtysomething veteran will be the next one to reach the record books. Lee Westwood, Paul Casey and, once again, Harrington all fit the bill.
12. Will the local guys make good?
It's been 21 years since an Augusta native won his hometown event, dating back to Mize's infamous 50-foot chip-in to defeat Norman in a playoff. Mize will be one of three locals in this year's field, along with Charles Howell III and Vaughn Taylor.
How much more does the tournament mean to a guy who grew up with it in his backyard? Just ask Howell: "Growing up as a kid, my motivating factor every April was the Masters -- and not just for me but for every junior golfer in Augusta. The Masters was what excited every junior golfer, every kid, to play. That said, to someone growing up in Augusta, the Masters takes on a little different meaning."
13. What's the power of 3?
Call it coincidence, call it circumstance, call it an accident waiting to happen. Whichever way you slice it, there's no good explanation for the fact that in 48 previous editions of the annual Par 3 Contest, no winner has ever repeated victory four days later on the big course. Not that players don't give it their best shot.
"I was kind of thinking, 'I have a better chance of winning the Par-3 than I do the tournament,'" said Johnson, who missed a final-hole chip that would have tied him with eventual champ Mark O'Meara last year. "You know, it's got to happen at some point."
14. Will amateur hour extend to the weekend?
No nonprofessional has made the Masters cut since Ryan Moore finished T-13 in 2005. This year's amateur class features a foursome that includes U.S. Mid-Amateur champ Trip Kuehne, British Amateur champ Drew Weaver and U.S. Amateur runner-up Michael Thompson. (Reigning U.S. Amateur and PubLinks champ Colt Knost relinquished his amateur status late last year, thereby forgoing his qualification for this tournament.)
The best bet to make some noise? Kuehne, 35, a lifetime am who says he will retire from competitive amateur golf after this week. There aren't many would-be pros who take such a route these days, but tourney founder Bobby Jones, who owned a similar career path, will be smiling down on Kuehne this week.
15. Will left be right?
Three of the past five green jackets have been presented to fellows who hit from the "other" side of the ball. Were those two wins by Mickelson and one by Mike Weir simply by coincidence? Or does Augusta National favor southpaws? If it's the latter, then that's good news for Nick O'Hern, Richard Green and Steve Flesch, who join the two past champions as the only lefties in this week's field.
16. Still nifty over 50?
Count on this: One former Masters champ over the age of 50 will make the cut this week. Too low? OK, more than one. Last year, Ben Crenshaw, Craig Stadler and Fuzzy Zoeller each stuck around for the weekend rounds. This year's best bets include baby boomers Bernhard Langer (three Champions Tour wins since hitting the Big 5-0 late last year) and Lyle (who made the cut as a spry 49-year-old in '07).
17. Do you believe in schadenfreude?
At some point, someone, somewhere, will have things go terribly wrong. There was Scott Hoch's choke from 18 inches away in '89, Chip Beck's layup in '93 and Norman's collapse in '96. You'll want to hang your head and cover your eyes … but, of course, you won't. Because you know that, well, sometimes it's just fun to watch guys lose.
18. Where's the drama, mama?
Maybe we just got a little too greedy, a little too expectant of the ultimate in entertainment value. In 2003, Weir defeated Len Mattiace in a playoff. The next year, Mickelson finally broke through for his first major by sinking a dramatic birdie putt on the final hole. And one year later, Tiger holed that all-timer on 16, then beat Chris DiMarco in extra holes.
Since then, the past two Masters have been determined by -- yawn -- two-stroke differentials. Hey, we just want to see a half-dozen of the world's top players all tied for the lead with a few holes to play come Sunday afternoon. Is that too much to ask?
Here’s+my+educated+guess%3A%0A%0A1)+ETW%0A%0A2)+Steve+Stricker%0A%0A3)+jim+Furyk%0A%0A4)+Andres+Romero%0A%0A5)+K.J.+Choi%0A%0A6)+Padrig+Harrington%0A%0A7)+Stewart+Appleby%0A%0ALET’S+GET+IT+ON!
1. Eldrick
2. Ogilvy
3. Henrick Stensen
4. Adam Scott
5. Paddy Harrington
6. Stricker
7. Choi
Freddy is a sentimental favorite, along with Cink, and would love to see them do well, but don't think they crack the top-10. Lefty is currently changing putters like most guys change socks, and that isn't the way to head in to Augusta.
Over the years I have learned not to make Masters picks with any money on the line. Even though I have won money a few times, the event is so much more enjoyable if I have no expectation of anyone, other than Phil screwing up.
I am not a fan of tricked up courses. You can make them hard without super-fast greens and waist-high rough two yards from the fairway.
I like to see narrow, tree-lined fairways with graduated rough, and large undulating greens that are plenty difficult at normal speeds. I a 20-foot putt has six different breaks in it, not many will go in....but the guy who hits it stiff will be rewarded.
Test+ping,+test+only!
Back when Phil first started having success, he was playing Yonex equipment. Yonex liked him so much that when he asked them to make him a left handed version of his Dad's putter, a Wilson Staff 8802 (right hand only), Yonex paid Wilson for permission to reverse the specifications and made Phil a one of a kind putter. It's that same putter Phil keeps going back to every time he starts having trouble with one of his Callaway Odyssey putters.
I have a Wilson Staff 8802 putter I got 15 years ago that stayed in my bag until just last year when I finally gave into new technology and bought an Odyssey #7. The 8802 now hangs on the wall in my office along with my Staff Tour Blades and Persimmon woods.
The problem with this is that it interferes with spectators. At Augusta National, for instance, look at a picture of the right side of the 11th fairway from ten years ago and take a look at it now; it is hardly recognizable, mostly because of the number of trees that the National has removed in order to be more patron friendly. Indeed, I think this article even mentions that they removed yet more trees from last year. That really changes the dynamics of that hole and makes it considerably easier. The 11th green is quite difficult, so it remains a relatively tough hole, but if they have to speed up the green a bit to compensate for the lost trees, that's OK with me.
By the way, in terms of a penalty, what is the difference in being in the trees off the fairway and being in six-inch rough like at the US Open? I think I'd almost rather have the rough, because at least I might get a decent lie. If you go into the woods, you're dead. There's been more than one Masters lost with a pulled drive into the woods on 15. In fact, I seem to recall Vijay Singh yanking one into the woods on 15 a few years ago on Sunday when he was within a stroke or two of the lead.
I miss the way they had Augusta back in the 70's and even early 80's when there was no rough. If you caught the wrong spot of the fairway on your drive, the ball would roll into the woods where you would have to deal with a tree or two in your way. #10 used to give everyone fits if they didn't catch the mound that would send them down the hill on center. #10 is still my favorite of all holes on tour. There are a couple of holes at Pine Valley that might be better, but you have to watch old reruns of Shell's Wonderful World of Golf to see them.
15, no. I meant 13.
I think 10 is a highly under-rated hole that doesn’t get a lot of attention, except for a few years back when Len Mattice totally choked in losing the Masters to Mike Weir. I think that year illustrated the thin line between success and disaster on ten.
How many times are you going to hit that 3-Wood on Number 1?
Fred Couples in 1998: double-bogyed 13 on Sunday, after going into the woods with his drive. He later eagled fifteen but still lost by a shot to Mark O'Meara. Basically, 13 cost him a second Master's.
#10 is also a tough hole to televise due to the elevation change. If your down where the drives are landing, you can see the tee box. A camera tower on the outside corner would be great, but would also be an eyesore.
#10 is also a tough hole to televise due to the elevation change. If your down where the drives are landing, you can't see the tee box. A camera tower on the outside corner would be great, but would also be an eyesore.
I fixed it
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