Posted on 03/21/2008 1:37:20 PM PDT by ShadowAce
For the first time in ages, the sale of new PCs with Windows as a percentage of the PC market is declining sharply. The new winner is the Mac, but, while no one does a good job of tracking the still-new, pre-installed Linux desktop market, it's also clear that Linux is finally making impressive inroads into Windows' once unchallenged market share.
The Mac numbers are especially revealing. NPD, a global market research company, has revealed that Apple's share of the U.S. computer market jumped to 14 percent in February 2008. This was up from 9 percent in February 2007.
In comparison to the overall market, U.S. PC retail shipments only grew 9 percent in units shipped and a mere 5 percent in revenue in the last year. Macs, in the meantime, saw a 60 percent growth in unit sales with an even more impressive 67 percent gain in revenue growth over the same period.
In an investors' research note based on the NPD data, Pacific Crest Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves said that Apple did especially well with its laptops. Better still, though, "MacBook Air sales appear to be additive to total sales, rather than replacing MacBook Pro sales. We believe a new set of corporate customers makes up a meaningful portion of MacBook Air buyers," said Hargreaves.
At the same time, while, to the best of my knowledge, no analysis firm is tracking Linux desktop sales yet, empirical evidence makes it clear that Linux desktops are moving into customers' hands at a quick pace.
For example, according to the Amazon's Bestsellers: The most popular items in Computers and PC Hardware list of March 21, the best-selling computer is not a Mac. It's the Asus Eee PC 4G Surf. Simultaneously, other retailers, such as Best Buy and Sears, are also offering low-priced Linux PCs.
While HP still hesitates from being the last of the major PC vendors to commit to desktop Linux, others are predicting great things from the Linux desktop. Asus, the Taiwanese OEM (original equipment manufacturer) behind the Eee Linux PC line, is predicting that it will sell 2 million Linux PCs in 2008.
I see two strong trends here. On the high end, people are buying Macs instead of Windows PC. On the low end, Linux is eating Windows alive.
Windows finds itself being confined to the middle ground.
This is happening because Vista, SP1 and all, has proven to be a commercial flop. Even Microsoft seems to be backing off Vista and looking ahead to its next operating system, Windows 7.
I've long predicted that Vista would be a failure and that this failure would give the Linux desktop its shot at the big time. That's no longer a prediction.
It's an observation of the facts.
This year is proving to be the year of desktop transformation. I see Macs continuing to gain strength with users who want the best of the best and are willing to pay the price. At the same time, the low end is going to be completely owned by Linux. From there, thanks to PCs and laptops from Dell, Lenovo and, eventually, HP, Linux will start moving up the PC ecosystem. Microsoft will be forced to a very unusual position: a defensive battle.
How Microsoft deals, or fails to deal, with this new challenge will determine if Windows continues to be the dominant desktop operating system. Distracted by its Yahoo buyout plans, its courtroom failures and its leadership changes, Microsoft is in trouble, and that means the other desktop operating systems have their best chance ever to knock Windows off the top of the desktop hill.
Tracking pre-installed linux sales is likely to severely underestimate linux deployments. I can’t count how many old windows machines I have slapped linux on to. Maybe a better proxy would be to track versions of adobe Flash that get downloaded, or their pdf viewer. Even new Windows machines often don’t have these apps on them, and this is a once only activity, unlike counts of browser hits on a web site. I suppose even there this would only track client type machines and miss server deployments.
LOL! Great cartoon!
Which would mean that any numbers reported via such mechanisms, should be considered to be under reported.
Suck it, Gates. We are coming for your scalp.
-ccm
True insider geek humor, right up there with “God is real unless declared integer.”
I used Vista for the first time last week. I am astonished that people would pay money for such a steaming heap of dung. Everything seems to take 30 or 40 percent more clicks to get done than in XP.
The only Windows that was worth a damn was Windows 2000. XP with Service Pack 2 is tolerable. Vista is dung.
-ccm
/(bb|[^b]{2})/
LOL, Linux is eating Apple’s dust, much less posing any sort of threat to Microsoft.
I see Bill’s sending his minions out to spin.
Yeah - the flash thing sort of popped into my mind - I haven’t run across flash on Fedora Core distros (what I usually use) but maybe I missed it or maybe it’s really not there. Or maybe something like itunes might work (for clients).
Anyway I think there is a lot of stealth linux usage out there under the radar. You take an old, retired window machine, you use the distro CD’s you copied from a friend - how is that going to make it into anyone’s numbers?
Maybe you can help me.
How does one burn a CD video I would like to make a copy off of you tube or something like it like a online video.
I have Nero but never used it and have no clue how to use it!
Thank you for your help.
I can capture youtube videos (google youtube-dl), and convert them to avi. Once that is done I can do it, but I'm not sure I can explain the process since we use different OSes, and different apps.
I'd help more, but I don't use it. You using Nero 3 for Linux, or Nero 8 for windows?
Thank you I bookmark that page.
Yea, well, then any site using those methods don't get accurate readings from me. Because I don't allow those scripts to run. I don't accept cookies from all but a small few whitelisted sites. I don't even run JS here, and Noscript is reporting that besides FR, google-analytics wants to run a script.
Nope!
Guess that will skew the results. And I imagine people running Linux, or people who have set up Linux for others, are using similar protections.
It doesn't bother me that some sites I visit don't have all sorts of flashy graphics, or ads, or JS applets running all over the place. If there is so much that I cannot access the information I need; I'll go elsewhere rather than turn on all sorts of things.
Are you using Linux or Windows or?
Windows
We just bought two new machines with XP at huge discounts on Dell Outlet, a very fast Quad Core desktop, and a fast and very sturdy business laptop, d830, so we are good to go. We shall cruise thru the Visduh era without a stop.
I am not opposed to buying a Mac, but XP has run perfectly for us with not one BSOD or any other problem, for 6 years now, so I am unwilling to spend the extra $ for Apple machines over what I have been getting good XP machines from Dell Outlet for.
I will Bookmark and ponder this!
Thank You
Microsoft has abandoned the low end of the PC market. Vista is so bogged with DRM and user-antagonistic stuff, they can no longer compete in the realm of the ASUS eee and other similar boxes. As for the high end, Apple simply makes a better product. Gamers and the great unwashed who don’t know any better are the ones who’ll be stuck with this dog of a product.
Even the creator of DirectX isn't too hot on Vista for gaming.
> The Mac numbers are especially revealing. NPD, a global market research company, has revealed that Apple’s share of the U.S. computer market jumped to 14 percent in February 2008. This was up from 9 percent in February 2007.
Misleading short-term numbers. This is the month that Apple introduced the Macbook Air, a machine unusual (and geekily attractive) in several ways, not the least of which is as the first computer to (loudly) advertise a solid-state drive.
Show me what March and April’s numbers are, then we’ll talk. :)
(FD: I’m a multi-OS guy, recently introduced to OS X and it’s driving me crazy.)
That’s too funny. I know some one on FR has the tagline “Sudo is a jedi mind trick”
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