Posted on 06/17/2021 3:32:53 PM PDT by blam
It is definitely new territory.
I may make a decision tonight as a new realization has come upon me.
We seem to be on the same road as Venezuela.
Probably not... That's why their called "Idiots".
One of my signals is product we buy.
The output after all is analyzed will be our own price increases.
So yes, product lines in and out are components.
I’m somewhat immune to all of what is coming. I own my home and am debt free. Although I’m on a fixed income. Property taxes are the only mandatory expense I can’t mitigate, easily.
I can go off grid and have plans to do so.
So inflate.
At some point, inflation will cause everybody to quit spending. Then the money will run out as our economy depends on the flow of money through the economy. If the flow stops, you are back to caveman survival mode.
Unlike Venezuela for example, Americans will not disarm and the Democrat Party government will have trouble controlling Americans. I personally don’t give a rats behind for Democrats and their cities, so, no great loss to me and most Americans. However for Democrats it will be a disaster.
If that is what it takes to crush the Democrat Party bring on the inflation and following Depression. I’m ready.
Are you saying those are components for manufacturing?
I’m actually thinking of leaving the country.
Iceland, Switzerland, Poland amd the Czech Republic lead the way.
If I must live in Socialism, it won’t be here. Too many “non Europeans”...
Well, sort of by nature inflation is transitory. Sometimes there are deflationary periods but more or less it goes up every year. Sometimes more than others. The real question is “how transitory” and “what’s the new normal”. When, if ever, will it fall back under 2% annually?
I am expecting inflation and shortages in commodities going deep into 2022 at least. Not just because of covid and not just because of the money supply and low rates.
I purchase source materials that are used in all kinds of industries from health care, beauty, textiles, industrial products, consumer products you name it.
These items are generally cheap. They are input into manufactured goods and resold as finished products or used to finish products (like, say, scotch guard some textile), so consider them part of the “producer price index” or “input cost”. But the prices for them have gone through the roof. Part of it is because a lot of this comes from Asia and there are a number of issues impacting it - there is a palm oil shortage for one, because of an embargo on Indonesia. Of course, all the Indonesians will do is sell them to China or Phillipines or somewhere else, repack it and reship it. But that’s going to add cost. Then there is a container shortage. Used to be to ship a container from Asia to Pacific Coast USA was about $1000. Now, its $5000 and climbing. That is not just because of fuel costs, it’s because they are running out of containers! They ship us so much stuff and the containers just sit here because we don’t have anywhere near as much stuff to ship back. Shippers are loathe to send an empty boatload across the ocean. For low cost low margin goods, that adds a lot. Worse, the higher margin goods like TVs and iPhones are paying shippers to jump the line because they can afford to grease their way in front, but the commodities guys and bulk shippers don’t have so much extra room to pay off the transport schedulers. So you have shortages and lead time problems, demand outstripping supply and thus price increases.
One day I received 2 price increases on the same day. An item that used to cost 78 cents a pound is now costing me $1.26 a pound. That’s small money, but big money considering it is used in just about everything and ships by the tonnage.
I had a transitory love once.
Well, probably more than once.
Everybody has a fit about inflation but it’s better than deflation.
So what is the magic inflation number where everybody will be happy, kind of like an economic Gaia will be pleased with us.
And can we control inflation to stay at that number forever?
2% inflation is very low compared to the average over the last 50 years. Now everybody acts like it’s lethal.
That is remarkable like being shelled by enemy artillery. Any move you make, including standing still, can result in the round killing you.
“Well, sort of by nature inflation is transitory.”
True, it was transitory in Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Argentina, etc. “Transitory” is the latest weasel word.
Good riddance to this now banned TROLL!
Bank of America is not a good source for sound investment advice. They also have a low stock valuation, trading under $40 a share.
If I bought BOA stock on Jan 4 1837 at $120 and sold June 17 2021 at $39.85.
I’m down $80.15 over the 184.5 year period.
If Bank of America can’t grow their own stock worth a shit.
Why should I listen to their economic predictions?
If you can tolerate drastic market swings over time, a simple investment approach IMHO would be to: (1) Invest based on dollar-cost-averaging. (2)Invest in a S&P 500 index fund or etf with low fees, e.g., Vanguard.
As I look back over the years, I see that I made the mistake of many investors, which was bailing when the heat (losses) became too great. It's difficult to hold-pat, when the market tanks and you see your investments lose 40% of their value. However, if you have the nerve and patience to hold fast, you will eventually see a rebound if history repeats itself.
VFIAX - lifetime (20.5 yrs) return - 265%; Lifetime annual average - 12.9%.
Why Index Funds Beat Actively Managed Funds:
https://www.thebalance.com/why-index-funds-beat-actively-managed-funds-2466411
Most of these advisory sources are just propaganda merchants as far as I'm concerned.
When it comes to stock, you gotta know how to analyze them before you purchase them, and not go on what some slick propaganda guy says.
Don't invest money you are not willing or able to lose.
I still have BAC stock that I bought in the 1990’s at about 13 bucks per share. Most of it I sold before the 2008 melt down. I only have a couple of hundred shares left.
Does this mean tech stocks or cash investments?. . . .
It means, get out of cash and get into commodities, now while there are still some you can afford.
My money is in weed, gold, tech, and Michael Burry’s positions...
Meanwhile groceries and gas are up 20%+.
Housing is up AT LEAST that much in the last year...whether rent or purchase.
So those who spend the bulk of their income on groceries, gas (and all energy) and housing are feeling the hammer.
That’s about 90% of the country.
But govt says core inflation is under 3%.
I say they’re full of shit.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.