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Threat Matrix 2021
Godzilla

Posted on 01/01/2021 7:36:15 AM PST by Godzilla

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To: WildHighlander57

This initially affects 10 states iirc. It has bearing across the US but I don’t think the judge has made a national hold on this mandate.


741 posted on 12/01/2021 7:15:02 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla; WildHighlander57
It has bearing across the US but I don’t think the judge has made a national hold on this mandate

Don't usually like Reuters as a source but this looks fairly accurate:

-----------------------------------------------

Nov 30 (Reuters) – The Biden administration was blocked from enforcing two mandates requiring millions of American workers to get vaccinated against COVID. U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty in Monroe, Louisiana, temporarily blocked the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) from enforcing its vaccine mandate for healthcare workers until the court can resolve legal challenges.

Doughty’s ruling applied nationwide, except in 10 states where the CMS was already prevented from enforcing the rule due to a prior order from a federal judge in St. Louis.

Doughty said the CMS lacked the authority to issue a vaccine mandate that would require more than 2 million unvaccinated healthcare workers to get a coronavirus shot. “There is no question that mandating a vaccine to 10.3 million healthcare workers is something that should be done by Congress, not a government agency,” wrote Doughty.

Separately, U.S. District Judge Gregory Van Tatenhove in Frankfort, Kentucky, blocked the administration from enforcing a regulation that new government contracts must include clauses requiring that contractors’ employees get vaccinated.

The White House declined to comment.

----------------------------------------

Have some selfish interest in this since Montana's AG was so heavily involved due to the potentially disastrous impact of the mandate on the largely rural healthcare sources in the state. Already got staff shortages statewide and the mandates would nuke the small-town facilities, forcing 400 mile journeys to the Big Time places that would be down to half-staff or worse themselves.

I said "disaster" and it would be worse than that for some folks.

742 posted on 12/01/2021 11:00:47 AM PST by Unrepentant VN Vet (Whom shall I send, and who will go for us? And I said, Here am I; send me.)
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To: Unrepentant VN Vet; Godzilla

Thanks for the info on the Kentucky ruling


Separately, U.S. District Judge Gregory Van Tatenhove in Frankfort, Kentucky, blocked the administration from enforcing a regulation that new government contracts must include clauses requiring that contractors’ employees get vaccinated.

The White House declined to comment.

Is the Kentucky ruling applicable nationwide?


743 posted on 12/01/2021 2:19:27 PM PST by WildHighlander57 ((The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers.) )
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

________________________________

Wuhan virus -

Omicron mania is increasing almost exponentially for a variant little is known about.

biden is scheduled to speak on his plans to combat this new variant. Although biden tried to quell alarm over the omicron variant, saying it was a cause for concern but “not a cause for panic.” his minions are doing just the opposite. One leaked item is that the Biden administration will extend requirements for travelers to wear masks on airplanes, trains and buses and at airports and train stations through mid-March, sources briefed on the matter told Reuters, amid concerns about a new COVID-19 variant.Biden plans to discuss the U.S. strategy for fighting COVID-19 this winter.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is ordering airlines to turn over the names of passengers who have recently been in any of eight southern African countries where the COVID-19 Omicron variant is known to be spreading. It requires all airlines to collect and turn over names and contact information for all travelers who have been to Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa or Zimbabwe in the past 14 days. The CDC is also looking to increase its “surveillance” at airports. Identified airports for increased surveillance measures will be implemented at the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City, Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, and San Francisco International Airport.

However, these ‘efforts’ are too late as a “fully vaccinated” individual in Kalifornia reportedly is the first known case in the US. The person was a traveler who returned from South Africa on Nov. 22 and tested positive Nov. 29.

In a recent interview Dr. Fauci called for testing of everyone coming into the country within 24 hours of their entry — except illegal aliens.

OMICRON OBSERVATIONS - Incredible hype that hasn’t been reflected in public opinions IIRC. It would seem that biden is hiding behind his machine to preserve his ‘ratings’ and letting the minions run rampant. Democrat globalist/leftists need to keep fear high to justify further restrictions and controls. This may be a first run attempt to use a variant as a tool to override elections reforms instituted after the 2019 elections.

A panel of U.S. health advisers on Tuesday narrowly backed a closely watched COVID-19 pill from Merck, setting the stage for a likely authorization of the first drug that Americans could take at home to treat the coronavirus.
The Food and Drug Administration panel voted 13-10 that the antiviral drug’s benefits outweigh its risks, including potential birth defects if used during pregnancy.
NOTE last sentence - there are serious risks, yet they will try to force this on us.

More court losses - Montana Department of Justice. - “U.S. District Court Judge granted Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen’s request for a preliminary injunction against the COVID-19 CMS vaccine mandate, which was set to take effect Monday, December 6, 2021,” the Montana DOJ wrote. “The vaccine mandate is now stayed in Montana and all other states.”

_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The Canadian federal government announced that it will pump millions more into its “voluntary” COVID isolation site program to “help” temporary foreign workers forced to isolate as well build a new virus camp. Canadian Minister of Health Jean-Yves Duclos said in a press release last Friday that more than $5 million will be provided for COVID sites and programs in the province of British Columbia through “Canada’s Safe Voluntary Isolation Sites Program.”

The chief of the European Commission has said EU nations should consider making Covid-19 vaccinations mandatory because too many people still refuse to have them voluntarily. German chancellor-designate Olaf Scholz said he would back a proposal to mandate coronavirus vaccines for all next year.
The EU-wide vaccination rate is 66%, and unexpectedly high case surges in much of the 27-nation bloc have led many member countries to renew mask and testing requirements, and to take other steps to curb infections.
“It is understandable and appropriate to lead this discussion now – how we can encourage and potentially think about mandatory vaccination within the European Union,” Ursula von der Leyen said. Health policy remains a national prerogative in the EU, and making jabs mandatory remains a controversial issue.

Greece Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced in a televised statement that the COVID-19 jab will now be required by law for people aged 60 and over. The prime minister said that for every month citizens 60-years and up go without a coronavirus vaccine, they will be slapped with a 100-euro ($114) fine.

Eighty House Republicans voted with Democrats on Tuesday to pass the Immunization Infrastructure Modernization Act, which if passed by the Senate and signed into law would fund a federal vaccination database.
According to the bill, also called H. R. 550, the government would provide $400 million in taxpayer dollars to fund “immunization system data modernization and expansion,” a system otherwise defined as “a confidential, population-based, computerized database that records immunization doses administered by any health care provider to persons within the geographic area covered by that database.”
OBSERVATION - Another step closer to a national wuhan passport.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - More countries are continuing to increase the tyrannical policies towards the unvaxxed. These countries should be viewed as examples of what the biden globalists eventually want to put into place here. First step now is the 7 day quarantine for certain travelers for Omicron.
_____________________________

Economy -

The Govt is facing a shut down this Friday. There are rumors that an agreement has been made to avoid this. Watch for details.

DOW flipped around 700 points on the announcement that Omicron has reached the US. Buckle up for more bumps.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The biden administration is withholding the annual Entry/Exit Overstay Report, which covers the number of illegal aliens who remain in the United States after their visas expire. The public release of this report isn’t optional, but its delivery to congress is mandated by law

Hundreds of illegal aliens congregated in recent days under a bridge in Del Rio, Texas, according to reports. Just a couple months ago thousands packed in the area. Most of the migrants hailed from Cuba, Venezuela, and Guatemala, authorities told KENS 5.
______________________________

Biden watch -

A recent poll released by the Trafalgar Group has revealed that Biden’s approval rating in November has continued to fall, landing at 36.3 percent.
NOTE - Poll numbers vary from polling firm to polling firm. Trend is the key in all of them and they all are pointing down, down, down.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Americans continue to arm to the teeth. On Black Friday, the FBI conducted 187,585 National Instant Criminal Background System (NICS) checks on gun sales, according to reports. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), Black Friday 2021 NICS checks surpassed those of 2020, which was 186,645.

Capitol Police arrested dozens of abortion rights supporters who sat down in a crosswalk near the courthouse, obstructing traffic, as hundreds staged dueling rallies in front of the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday.

Another day, another trial. Officer Kim Potter is on trial for the shooting of Daunte Wright. Wright attempted to flee from officers during a traffic stop due to outstanding arrest warrants and was shot and killed by Potter after he crashed in to a concrete barrier. Potter is charged with First and Second-Degree Manslaughter.
On Tuesday night in Minneapolis at a BLM protest against the jury selection for the Kim Potter trial, rioters swarmed & attacked a vehicle. They tried to open the doors to pull the driver out.
Daunte Wright has an extensive criminal history. He was charged with carrying an illegal .45 Ruger, skipping his initial court date before being stopped by police officers in April of 2021. In the wake of the shooting, his social media showed him flashing gang signs and using drugs.
In the days following the incident, nearly a hundred people were arrested as they tried to break in to the Brooklyn Center Police Department and threw projectiles at officers.

OBSERVATION - This trial has the potential for serious violence if an acquittal is the outcome.
_________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Three senior aids to VP harris have quit in the past two weeks.

19 democrat congress critters have announced they will not run for reelection next year and retire
NOTE - They won’t get their pension if voted out. They are taking our money and running.
_____________________________________

China -

The World Tennis Association has cancelled and pulled out of China due to China’s treatment of Peng Shuai. While this will cost the WTA millions, the insult to China is significant and may provide more leverage to boycott the Olympics.

China and the US are preparing for a meeting between their top military officials amid rising tensions over Taiwan and an arms race over the most lethal hypersonic weapons.

China told Indonesia to stop drilling for oil and natural gas in maritime territory that both countries regard as their own during a months-long standoff in the South China Sea earlier this year, four sources told Reuters
____________________________________

North Korea -

The U.S. and the Republic of Korea are expected to announce this week they will begin writing a new war plan for North Korea that takes into account Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile launch advances, two U.S. senior defense officials said Tuesday.
At their annual Security Consultative Meeting in Seoul on Thursday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Republic of Korea Defense Minister Suh Wook will announce new strategic planning guidance “to start the process of developing a new operational war plan,” said one of the officials, who briefed reporters traveling with Austin to Seoul. “The DPRK has advanced its capabilities. The strategic environment has changed over the past few years,” the official said. “It’s appropriate and necessary that we have an OPLAN that is updated.” The officials noted that the current war plan for North Korea is around 10 years old.
___________________________________

Russia -

See related discussion under Ukraine
____________________________________

Ukraine -

UK Foreign Secretary has just held a meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Stockholm amid growing concern among western allies over a build up of Russian troops around Ukraine and the potential for another invasion.

Putin made very specific demands this week: No additional eastern expansion of NATO & legal guarantees of same, no foreign long range missiles in Ukraine, no foreign military basing in Ukraine.

Observers have noted that the current build up has exceeded the one this past spring. Blinken said yesterday it is unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, but said that “he’s putting in place the capacity to do so on short order, should he so decide.” “by evidence that Russia has made plans for significant aggressive moves against Ukraine,” including “efforts to destabilize Ukraine from within, as well as large scale military operations.”

There are reports of Ukranian armored units moving eastward.

PM Lukashenka at the meeting with head of Russian State Duma Volodin: “we have an understanding of the need to preserve that civilization that existed at our joint Fatherland”, “joint Fatherland is Belarus and Russia”, - he explained, also hopes Ukraine will join this “joint Fatherland”

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Situation has gotten more serious. Putin is taking an increasingly harder line looking to leverage the fact that he has the forces on the ground to accomplish what he wants and a shut down of natural gas to Europe in his back pocket. He may be close to painting himself into a corner and have to launch some kind of attack. NATO is partially hamstrung in that Ukraine is not a NATO member, but is petitioning to become one. As I’ve noted, Putin sees Europe/NATO as a strategic threat. He covertly tried to get a Russian friendly government installed like in Belarus, but failed, initiating his capture of Crimea and eastern provinces of Ukraine under the guise of a separatist rebellion.
Absent US ‘backbone’ Europe is struggling to respond but resistance to Putin is stiffening. Putin is threatening but so far Ukraine and NATO haven’t taken the bait to initiate actions. I think Putin may do something limited if NATO forces move into Ukraine.
A very dangerous game of chicken is developing.
____________________________________

Israel -

Israel PM Bennett told US Secretary of State Blinken in a phone call: Iran is carrying out “nuclear blackmail” - there should be an immediate halt to negotiations and harsh measures by the powers
____________________________________

Iran -

Iran gives European nuclear deal parties drafts on sanctions removal, nuclear issues. according to state media. A European diplomat confirmed it, according to Reuters

Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an expert on the Iran nuclear program, told JNS that “if Iran comes to talks with maximalist demands for sanctions relief and refuses to resume discussing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the P5+1 will quickly realize that Tehran’s game is one of extortion, and they could pivot to a united pressure front.”
OBSERVATION - Iran is pursuing maximalist demands.

AEA boss Rafael Mgrossi “I confirmed that Iran increased production capacity at its enrichment plant in Fordow. It’s very important they give unfettered access to my inspectors. If they limit access, then we do have a problem”
__________________________________

Black Swans -

The GPS meter in Grímsvötn shows that the ice cap continues to descend and it has sunk almost 9.87 m (32.4 feet) since it was measured highest on November 24, 2021, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) reports.
Running water has now appeared in Gígjukvísl and the water level there has risen gradually yesterday and last night.
According to Benedikt Gunnar Ófeigsson, deformation scientist at the IMO, there is every indication that the Grímsvötn volcano is ready to erupt. The last eruption of this volcano took place in 2011 — it was a large and powerful VEI 4 eruption.

OBSERVATION - as noted earlier, major eruptions have followed these melting episodes. Such eruptions have shut down air travel in the UK and even portions of Europe. Such would impact the economies of these countries and may even worsen the current excessive cold weather being experienced due to sunlight blockage.


744 posted on 12/02/2021 6:51:28 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla

“Incredible hype that hasn’t been reflected in public opinions IIRC. It would seem that biden is hiding behind his machine to preserve his ‘ratings’ and letting the minions run rampant. Democrat globalist/leftists need to keep fear high to justify further restrictions and controls. This may be a first run attempt to use a variant as a tool to override elections reforms instituted after the 2019 elections.”

*****

Looks to me like they are setting up Biden to be the reluctant lockdown guy, who regretfully has to lockdown because enough people didn’t get vaccinated.

Also, regardless of how many mutations Omicron has, and whether vaccines work or not, the variant will be used to push vaccines.

It’s like everything they do is to push the vaccines.

I’ve said it before, if your top worry is a pandemic, you don’t fire nurses over not getting the vaccine. There’s lots of good reasons not to mandate vaccines.

The only way to make sense of what they do is to look at as if the vaccinations are the top priority by far, more important than public health, the economy, elections, anything.


745 posted on 12/02/2021 7:09:43 AM PST by BusterDog
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To: BusterDog
Looks to me like they are setting up Biden to be the reluctant lockdown guy, who regretfully has to lockdown because enough people didn’t get vaccinated.

My point entirely - you said it better.

746 posted on 12/02/2021 7:13:08 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla
Omicron mania is increasing almost exponentially for a variant little is known about.>>>>>>>>>

The Dems have their Lemmings all cranked up while JoeBlow is doing the false quelling of the disturbed masses. They mean to contextualize the Nov mid terms right in the center of this mania....and double down on the election steal.

RUN FOR YOUR LIVES ....ITS Obamacron Virus!

VOTE BY MAIL, VOTE BY DROP BOX, RED CHINA'S ALREADY PRINTING THE BALLOTS.

747 posted on 12/02/2021 11:51:51 AM PST by Candor7 ((Obama Fascism:http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html))
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, war etc.

________________________________

Wuhan virus - YELLOW, trending upward
OMICRON is the new kid on the block and has spread to at least 5 states, although there is no evidence of it being more lethal. It is driving the extension of and new oppressive measures to ‘combat’ it.

biden’s wuhan plan is just more of the same. However, he’s looking to increase pressure to jab those 17 and younger.

The White House is considering mandating vaccinations for domestic air travel following the discovery of the Omicron variant in the United States.”I would say that nothing is off the table, so, including domestic travel,” said Press Secretary Psaki when asked about future rules.
OBSERVATION - Incrementalism, setting the stage for national passport.

The World Economic Forum issued a neutral statement concerning Omicron saying not much is known about it or its effects. “Early data from South Africa shows the rate of hospitalization is rising among COVID-19 patients. However, there is no evidence so far that directly links infection with Omicron with an increased need for hospital treatment. “

Court ordered Pfizer and FDA to release documents pertaining to the development and approval of the mRNA jabs. A lot of revelations that have been hidden. Among early discoveries, there were a total of 42,086 case reports for adverse reactions (25,379 medically confirmed, 16,707 non-medically confirmed), spanning 158,893 total events. More than 25,000 of the events were classified as “Nervous system disorders.”

The World Health Organization has questioned the UK government’s decision to roll out hundreds of millions of booster jabs to its population, asserting there is “no evidence” they would offer “greater protection” to the healthy.
Dr. Mike Ryan, head of the WHO’s emergencies program, questioned the logic behind this decision.
“Right now, there is no evidence that I’m aware of that would suggest that boosting the entire population would necessarily provide any greater protection for otherwise healthy individuals against hospitalization and death,” he said.

An abstract published American Heart Association “Circulaton” warns mRNA vaccines dramatically increase risk of developing heart disease. AHA issued a disclaimer that there are errors in the abstract that need to be fixed and in its current version may not be reliable.
_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward
Powers that be still trying to get pieces together. Global governments are increasingly moving to universal jab mandates and establishing quarantine camps for the unjabbed. In some instances they are using Omicron to justify the increased tyranny.

On Thursday Merkel and Olaf Scholz, the vice chancellor who will be replacing Merkel next week, unveiled new Covid mandates: Mandatory Covid shots for hospital, care-home employees. Access to restaurants, theaters only for vaccinated, recovered. Access to non-essential stores only for vaccinated, recovered. Tighter contact restrictions for non-vaccinated people. Nightclubs closed in places with high infection rates. Limits on number of spectators at large public events. Expanded crisis unit to coordinate federal, regional action.
OBSERVATION - Germany is setting the stage for universal vaccine mandates for all.

An investigation by experts in Spain has concluded that vaccine passports have no significant impact on reducing COVID-19 infection rates. Details of the study, carried out by Spain’s inter-regional Covid committee, were obtained by El Pais and reported on by the Telegraph.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-news-cases-deaths-booster-jab-coronavirus-omicron/#update-20211201-0922
The researchers also concluded that vaccine passport schemes “contribute to a false impression that vaccinated people do not get infected,” when in fact “around 40 per cent of those vaccinated are susceptible to infection and transmitting the infection,” the report states.

A Swedish biohacker and advocate for human augmentation is promoting the use of microchips implanted in the hand to record COVID certificate status. Response of biblical proportions . . . . .
_____________________________

Economy - ORANGE trending upward

Congress passed a stop-gap bill yesterday to fund the govt to Feb 2022. Kicking the can down the road 11 weeks.

Jobs report came out - results were half what was expected. 210K non farm jobs added, but 550K were expected (down a stunning 336K from October’s upward revised 546K), and the smallest monthly increase since December! Unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%.
Also in the report, the revelation that REAL US Average Hourly Earnings growth YoY fell to -1.378%. Income being far outstripped by inflation.
biden is expected to try to put lipstick on this pig this morning in an announcement.
NOTE - these unemployment numbers are so perverted that they are not believable anymore.

The California drought conditions are so dire the Department of Water Resources has issued its earliest ever 0% water allocation heading into 2022, signaling even further issues for water conservation in the most populous state in the U.S. One symptom, the largest, Lake Oroville, is only at 30% capacity, which is half of what is normal for this time of year,
OBSERVATION - Remember, Kalifornian is a bread basket for the US and much of the world. 0 allocation means fewer crops (only those with independent water sources).

biden claims the reduction of gasoline prices of 2 cents/gallon as a ‘victory’ They fail to mention that prices rose well over a dollar since the first of the year.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward
Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

The Biden administration announced Thursday that it is ready to re-implement the Trump-era “Remain-in-Mexico” policy in response to a court order to do so, after making changes to secure the agreement of the Mexican government – while still seeking to abolish the program entirely.
“As required by a federal court order, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been working in good faith to re-implement the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) program,” the Department of Homeland Security said in a statement. “Today, in coordination with the Departments of State and Justice, DHS announced key changes to MPP to address humanitarian concerns raised by the Government of Mexico and shared by the U.S. Government.”
OBSERVATION - Expect feet dragging on this ‘implementation’ as it has been biden’s common tactic on this as well as other court mandated actions.
______________________________

Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward
Mental facilities being questioned by leftist media and even 0bama’s doctor.

Biden says he went to Israel during the Six Day War to act as a liaison. He’s lying. That never happened. Totally normal.

LL Cool J introduced the president and first lady Jill Biden on Thursday evening at the National Christmas Tree lighting ceremony, which was held at the Ellipse south of the White House, but the cheering crowd had to wait nearly two minutes for the pair to show up.
Music played for part of the time — the rest was filled with silence until the rapper spoke up again and said, “We’re going to do it again.” He then told the crowd to sit down again. Someone else could be heard asking for applause before LL Cool J again introduced the Bidens....
OBSERVATION - Tardiness to events is becoming an increasingly common issue.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward
New trials are stimulating BLM violent protests. Potentially may also leverage a reversal of Roe v Way for addition violence.

Kathleen Casillo, 52, appeared in Manhattan Criminal Court on Wednesday after she was accused of driving through Manhattan BLM protestors last December. Casillo rejected the court’s offer for a plea deal, which would have given her six days of community service and one year license suspension, in favor of a trial. She claimed the demonstrators at the protest last year had come up to her car and called her ‘a white privilege b**ch’ before banging on the vehicle. She also told police at the time that she panicked and hit the gas as they started banging on her car. BLM protestors gathered in front of the court room on Wednesday as they awaited justice for Casillo’s actions. They had been angered over Casillo’s ‘lenient’ sentencing after she was only charged with reckless assault in the third degree on February 22

OBSERVATION - The right of self defense in these cases is not well established. This has been likened to another Rittenhouse scenario. These ‘road blocks’ by BLM/Antifa were an increasingly popular method of terrorizing the local citizenry.

Gov DeSantis announced the formation of a state militia known as the Florida State Guard. It mission - “The establishment of the Florida State Guard will further support those emergency response efforts in the event of a hurricane, natural disasters and other state emergencies. The $3.5 million to establish the Florida State Guard will enable civilians to be trained in the best emergency response techniques.”
OBSERVATION - With the exception of “other state emergencies”, this organization looks like it is initially poised for disaster relief. In many ways it resembles the CERT program I was in. However, this is a MILITARY force exempt from federal control as a way for states to circumvent Department of Defense regulations. Intrastate emergencies or interstate power contests may pit federal troops against state forces if a governor defies the Pentagon.

With arguments at the USSC over abortion ‘rights’ over, the decision is not expected for several months. However, the tea leave readers seem to think that Roe will be drastically pulled back if not eliminated outright. Pro-Aborts will likely use the decision to rally large protests and try to make the issue a key one for the 2022 midterm elections. Moderate potential for violence, mostly aided and abetted by BLM/Antifa elements that use the protests as a cover for them to spring board off from.
_________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments - BLUE trending neutral

U.S. surveillance planes carried out a record number of sorties along China’s coast during the month of November. According to a Chinese think tank, U.S. surveillance and maritime patrol aircraft conducted 94 close reconnaissance flights along China’s coastline, a 30% increase from previous months. A majority of the flights were conducted by U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.
_________________________________

Russia - YELLOW TO ORANGE *change from previous week*
Increased potential for military action against Ukraine Four courses of action as i see it -
1. No invasion, but maintain turmoil and NATO will have no interest in bringing Ukraine into the Alliance.
2. Limited invasion, most likely in the Southeast Ukraine to make a land bridge to Crimea. Note increasing Russian talk about a Ukraine attack to recapture Crimea - nothing the Donbas region. Alternative limited scenario would see Russia claiming Ukrainian military movements toward/vicinity of Line of Contact (LOC) as justification/act of war (AOW) for moving conventional troops, weapons, and equipment into separatist regions.
3. Russia maintains pressure and orchestrates a change of Ukraine government to one favorable. Gains a buffer with NATO
4. Full invasion of Ukraine- worst case scenario.

Right now winter forecasts bode ill to united NATO response to any Russian incursions. Russian military is well-equipped to conduct a winter assault. In contrast, NATO would likely struggle to traverse the continent after winter conditions set in under threat of engagement by Russian long-range precision fires.

It all boils down to the extent of NATO involvement in Ukraine. Russia urgently needs guarantees that NATO will not move eastward, “it cannot continue this way,” the Kremlin said.

Russia hold the high cards so far and the game of chicken is entering a most dangerous stage IF warnings of a winter offensive by Russia hold true.

Talks between the United States and Russia over Ukraine have seemingly fallen apart, with both sides seemingly resigned to the possibility of conflict.

Russia has deployed its Bastion coastal missile defense system to a remote part of the Kuril island chain in the Pacific near Japan, the Ministry of Defense’s Zvezda TV channel said on Thursday.
Japan lays claim to the Russian-held southern Kuril islands that Tokyo calls the Northern Territories, a territorial row that dates back to the end of World War Two when Soviet troops seized them from Japan.
____________________________________

Ukraine - YELLOW to ORANGE *change from previous week*
Increased potential of an attack by Russia.

Ukraine’s military intelligence says militants in occupied Donbas led by Russia’s 8th CCA command are holding drills to exercise putting troops on hight combat alert. Besides, their artillery is also training hard.
____________________________________

Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
Ongoing threat from Hezebollah and Iran continues.

Mossad openly promised that Iran will never get nuclear weapons.
____________________________________

Iran - ORANGE

Iranian negotiators led by deputy FM Ali Bagheri Kani presented in Vienna this week two new drafts for an agreement on sanctions relief and for an agreement on measures Iran needs to take in order to roll back its nuclear program in compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal

Blinken: Washington is not optimistic about the Iranian nuclear talks in Vienna
__________________________________

Belarus - YELLOW trending upward
Migrant ‘crisis’ still a severe concerns in EU, but recent events appear that Belarus is potentially deescalating the situation. Increasing trend in that it will support/participate in Russian military action against Ukraine

The US has imposed new sanctions on Belarus in response to the migrant crisis on the border with Poland and ongoing human rights violations by the Lukashenka government
________________________________________


748 posted on 12/03/2021 8:08:50 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla; Whenifhow; null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; 2ndDivisionVet; ...

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749 posted on 12/03/2021 8:28:36 AM PST by bitt (<img src=' 'width=50%>)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Life happened yesterday so a little catch up today.
________________________________

Wuhan virus -

In a Friday press release by the Kyodo News Service, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare warned of myocarditis and pericarditis issues related to the mRNA COVID vaccines. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare today decided to raise alertness to “serious side reactions” from normal warnings and require doctors to report symptoms of myocarditis and pericarditis reported more frequently in young men after the new coronavirus vaccinations made by Pfizer and Moderna. It was approved by the expert subcommittee of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare which analyzes the side reaction.
Japanese medical magazine Med Check examined the coronavirus vaccine’s serious side effects and deaths. The publication’s editor-in-chief, Rokuro Hama, revealed that in the elderly and health care workers, a disproportionate number of people died of various cardiovascular causes after the Covid gene-therapy jab compared to the general population. Furthermore, people in their twenties have seven times higher risk of death from vaccination than from COVID-19.

OBSERVATIONS - The cardio threats due to the jabs are becoming harder and harder to hide as more and more research comes out making the connection even firmer. This the latest out of Japan.
The cardio impacts exposed by themselves would have shut these ‘vaccines’ down in the past. The globalist influence cannot allow this to happen, but right now they are losing the effort to keep it under wraps.

GENERAL OMICRON - Medical authorizes still not the effects of the monster variant are mild, leading to few hospitalizations. Major concern it that many of the cases are in “fully vaccinated” individuals - indicating that the current ‘vaccines’ are ineffective against it. Mixed signals also continue be flex between the end of the world and ho-hum nothing burger. This has made it hard for the ‘narrative’ to gain traction unlike Delta.
_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

The Oregon Health Authority (OHA) met on Thursday for about two hours to begin the process of drafting an order to make the state’s indoor mask requirement permanent.

Victoria Australia is set to grant the Premier Daniel Andrews broad authority to dictate new wuhan restrictions with very little oversight, removing that authority from state health agencies.

Over 40,000 people marched in Vienna, Austria against new lockdown measures and compulsory vaccination. Protests formed across Italy this weekend ahead of the government’s new “super green pass,” which will ban Italians who are unvaccinated and cannot prove they have recovered from COVID-19 from most public spaces. In Canada, unvaccinated travelers over the age of 12 won’t be able to board a plane or train beginning today, and a negative COVID-19 test will no longer serve as a substitute for most people.

More than a dozen people have been forcibly placed in government isolation facilities in Germany. The 15 individuals, who allegedly violated at-home isolation requirements for COVID-19, include 11 in Munich, two in Stuttgart, and one each in Düsseldorf and Frankfurt, Welt am Sonntag reported. The full number of cases is likely higher, as authorities Berlin and Leipzig did not provide figures to the paper.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for forced vaccinations for all citizens within the European Union; and the removal of the prohibitive Nuremberg Code.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - More efforts at using the wuhan chaos to increase tyrannical powers of govts. Know full well that the wuhan powers that be here in the US are monitoring these efforts closely in order to duplicate the efforts here.
_____________________________

Economy -

CEOs and corporate insiders have sold a record $69 billion in stock in 2021, as looming tax hikes and lofty share prices encourage many to take profits. As of Monday, sales by insiders are up 30% from 2020 to $69 billion, and up 79% versus a 10-year average, according to InsiderScore/Verity.
OBSERVATION - This has set off a chain of conspiracy theories that these insiders are in the know of an impending market crash and are getting out at the top of the market.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The Biden administration has yet to present to Congress a report detailing the number of Afghan refugees in the United States and on overseas military bases—in violation of a law that required those disclosures by Dec. 1. The violation of a congressionally mandated deadline comes as more than 124,000 people were airlifted out of Afghanistan by Aug. 30, the last day of the United States’ presence in the country. Of those, the White House says it anticipates up to 95,000 Afghans will be resettled in the United States. Many of the Afghans who arrived in the United States this fall lacked identification paperwork, raising terrorism and public safety concerns.
______________________________

Biden watch -

Biden showing effects of a ‘cold’ he says he caught from a grandchild.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Massive crime waves are hitting dark blue metropolitan areas on both coasts. Of recent note in the news, workers in Manhattan have been warned to ‘dress down’, with many now taking special shuttles provided by their companies to avoid the subway systems. In LA, violent crime is spreading into the liberal “wealthier enclaves” of the city. Not sure if the wealthy liberals being bit directly on the rear will generate a pro cop movement, but the current movement is coming from the middle class fleeing the increased crime and violence for safer parts of the country.
_________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Congress struggling to push key biden legislation through before the Christmas recess. Doesn’t look like Senate democrat moderates are going to cooperate.
_____________________________________

India/China -

Buried in other news, working talks have resumed, both China and India have reinforced their air and ground assets. China has advanced fighter jets at three air bases within striking distance of Indian military positions. Some analysts are now predicting that It is likely that China will again initiate armed skirmishes along disputed border regions to test the Biden Administration’s will to defend U.S. allies.
__________________________________

Russia -

Biden-Putin talks set for Tuesday amid Ukraine tension: Kremlin

OBSERVATION - Though I’m still inclined in my analysis that Putin will hold off invasion because he’ll be able to extract the NATO pledge he demands, nothing is off the table. His continued positioning of forces, time table and other combat multipliers (such has the control of natural gas to Europe) gives him a lot of tools to play with. If he does execute the worst case scenario (discussed under Ukraine below), NATO is poorly positioned to do anything but submit strongly worded commendations.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

Russian forces have capabilities in place along the Ukraine border to carry out a swift and immediate invasion, including erecting supply lines that could sustain a drawn-out conflict, Numbers of men and equipment are essentially double what Russia deployed this spring. Current estimate of 175,000 soldiers will be in the border area with Ukraine by the end of the month. Ukraine’s defense minister said he believes an invasion could happen as early as next month

Two updates on Russian units prepositioning near Ukraine. Firstly, at Dzankoi Airbase in Crimea presumably an air defence unit was established between 9-14 November. This is in addition to an S-400 battalion already deployed at the base.
Second one: A new motor rifle regiment was possibly established within the 3rd Motor Rifle Division at Valuyki/Soloti. It is based on BMP-3Ms we saw moving towards Valuyki two weeks ago.

OBSERVATION - Putin isn’t going to backing down. If all the 175K are deployed, it is estimated they can hit Ukraine from three directions. One via Belarus (possibly with belarus military involved), second along the broad eastern border and a third via Crimea and a potential amphibious assault between Crimea and Odessa. Many see an advance as far west as the Dinpro River - a significant natural barrier with several lakes and associated marshlands.
____________________________________

Iran -

A huge explosion has been heard in Badroud region near Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility. Fars news says a bright light has been seen in sky. NourNews, close to Iran’s security forces, says a loud explosion heard in Badroud near the Natanz nuclear facilities was from an air defense missile. Contrary to other reports, it says the missile was fired as a controlled test and there was no hostile drone.

OBSERVATION - Test or spooked operators?

The Biden administration quietly waived sanctions on Iran to allow the hardline regime to sell electricity to Iraq. These join other sanctions the administration has waved in recent months to ‘lure’ Iran back to the bargaining table.
__________________________________

Turkey -

The two-decade economic boom that lifted millions of Turks into the middle class is beginning to unravel, threatened by a currency crisis that has people lining up for subsidized bread, cutting back on meat and fleeing for a better life in Europe.
The Turkish lira has lost as much as 45% of its value this year, making ordinary Turks poorer. The pandemic-era consumer-price increases that have plagued economies across the world are supersize in Turkey, where inflation stands at more than 21%. People here are rushing to trade their shrinking wages for dollars and gold, are eating out less and are having more trouble finding imported goods, including medicine.

OBSERVATION - Economic woes have worked to curtail some of Turkey’s expansionist desires and the public demands money be spent in country, and not on out of county military operations .
______________________________________

Poland -

See Belarus below
______________________________________

Belarus -

Belarusian Border Guards claimed Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter violated Belarusian airspace near Novaya Rudnia. Ukrainian border guards say that neither violation of border by Ukrainian helicopter was recorded, nor message about violation received from Belarusian side as it claimed
________________________________________


750 posted on 12/05/2021 7:00:49 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla
‘Explode It’: ISIS Using China’s TikTok To Plot Terror Attacks In The West.
5 Dec 2021

Chinese social media platform TikTok is being used by ISIS to recruit followers to carry out terrorist attacks in the West.

An investigation by The Sun found “dozens of accounts on the social network, which is popular with children, posting ISIS propaganda and inciting hatred against non-Muslims.”

Content included in the videos included calls urging supporters to carry out mass-casualty terrorist attacks over Christmas.

One of the videos posted this week urged supporters to launch mass-casualty terrorist attacks in the West during the Christmas holidays.

The video features moody background sounds and starts by describing Christmas as “the celebration of the Kufar [non-Muslims] & Crusaders.

“They do not believe in Allah, and they make fun of the sacred. They are Shaytan [Devil] slaves,” one video begins before showing scenes of Christmas markets and celebrations. After the holiday montage, the narrator adds:
“Prepare yourself, O soldier of Allah to shed the blood of these Kufar.”

The video also calls for ISIS followers to become suicide bombers, explaining how to “enter the crowds disguised in their clothes.”

“Explode it and plant panic and terror in their hearts,” the video encourages.

The Sun found “dozens” of accounts sharing similar content, including a “woman in a burka who posted an apparent surveillance video of buildings and structures in Germany. Captioned “May Allah accept you into Paradise,” the video begins with the sound of police sirens.

The platform’s unearthed ties to Islamic terrorism follow a Trump administration crusade to ban the platform from operating in the U.S. – an effort recently quashed by the Biden White House – over credible fears related to the app’s national security and data privacy threats.

Beyond national security concerns, the company’s founder has also pledged to use ByteDance to promote “socialist core values” and foster adherence to the Chinese Communist Party’s “ideology, political thinking, and deeds.”

https://thenationalpulse.com/news/isis-using-tiktok-to-incite-terrorist-attacks/

751 posted on 12/05/2021 12:22:49 PM PST by Oorang (Politicians:-a feeble band of lowly reptiles who shun the light and who lurk in their own dens. )
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

________________________________

Wuhan virus -

No one has died with the new super mutant Omicron Covid variant despite the strain being spotted in 38 countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) has revealed. The Omicron variant has now been discovered in 38 countries.
_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Nevada on Thursday became the first U.S. state to impose a surcharge on workers who have not gotten a COVID-19 vaccine, though the penalty doesn’t take effect until the middle of next year. The penalty consists of a surcharge of $55 a month on unvaccinated workers.
OBSERVATION - Control via punishment. Start of a new trend in blue states.

Mayor Bill de Blasio announced a sweeping Covid vaccine mandate for all private employers in New York City on Monday morning to combat the spread of the Omicron variant. Blasio said the aggressive measure, which takes effect Dec. 27 and which he described as the first of its kind in the nation, was needed as a “pre-emptive strike” to stall another wave of coronavirus cases and help reduce transmission during the winter months and holiday gatherings.
OBSERVATION - If this is co critical, why wait 3 weeks before implementation? Also of note, DeBlasio also only has less than a month before being replaced as mayor.

Police fired teargas and used water cannons on Sunday to disperse protesters pelting officers with cobblestones and fireworks as a demonstration in Brussels over government-imposed COVID-19 restrictions turned violent. Demonstrators were protesting rules imposed in October that oblige people to show COVID-19 passes to access bars and restaurants.

_____________________________

Economy -

Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics are predicting that annual inflation will remain above 2% over the next three years as a result of rising wages and strong demand for goods and services. NABE panelists project that the overall consumer price index will rise 6% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to September’s forecast of 5.1%. CPI inflation is expected to remain elevated by the end of 2022 at 2.8% year-over-year, compared to September’s forecast of 2.4%.
OBSERVATION - Note that they’ve stopped talking about “transitory’” inflation. Prolonged high inflation will pressure the fed to raise their prime rates, with the equivalent danger of crashing the economy.

Oil rose by more than $1 a barrel to above $71 on Monday as hopes that the Omicron coronavirus variant may cause mostly mild symptoms boosted riskier assets and as the prospect of an imminent rise in Iranian oil exports looked less likely.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Over 100,000 ‘got aways’ reported for October.
______________________________

Biden watch -

See Harris discussion under Political.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

A group called the “Patriot Front” marched through D.C. this weekend. It was quickly identified as a false flag operation on many counts - one of which being the specialized shields they carried. That and the fact that BLM/Antifa didn’t fall on them like white on rice. “The far-right rally was not pre-announced so antifa were unable to organize an effective counter direct action ahead of time,” wrote Andy Ngo. “One account blames capitalism for this.” IE, they had jobs and couldn’t get off. Another factor was the secrecy of the event.
OBSERVATION - False flag operations are becoming less conspiracy theory and more reality. Fed agents stuck out like a sore thumb at a recent protest against the treatment the j6 defendants are receiving. The Malhur standoff in Oregon had more infiltrators than actual protesters. Recent ‘kidnapping’ plot against the Michigan governor - planned and manned by FBI agents. And finally, evidence of govt provocateurs during the J6 events. Patriots are finally getting smart and starting to identify these individuals and executing better OPSEC/PERSEC. But that won’t stop a determined deep state from trying to instigate something that will permit them to gain intelligence on civilians or support crackdowns on rights.

BLM activist, Cortez Rice, 32, has been arrested in Waukesha, Wisconsin for intimidating the judge in the Kim Potter trial.
Former police officer Potter is facing manslaughter charges in the April shooting of Daunte Wright. Rice has been charged with felony harassment with aggravated violations — tampering with a juror or retaliating against a judicial officer, according to a report from KSTP. He is reportedly a relative of George Floyd.
OBSERVATION - Threats tend to become reality, however, very little happened after Rittnenhouse.

News crews and stations are rethinking live reporting of looting and riots not that they have become targets for looters in recent weeks.
_________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Vice President Kamala Harris is described as a “bully” in a new report that brands her as the “common denominator” behind a recent exodus of high-level staffers. Harris’ allegedly “soul-destroying” management style was revealed by staffers to the Washington Post just days after spokesperson and longtime aide Symone Sanders announced her departure.
Harris is also losing support of the liberal media, which has started to turn into attack dogs against her.
OBSERVATION - Democrats continue to struggle with what to do about Kamala. They cannot remove biden while she is VP.
_____________________________________

China -

China wants to put its first Atlantic Ocean military base in Equatorial Guinea, U.S. intelligence shows. This would be a nightmare scenario.

(Reuters) – China Evergrande Group has set up a risk management committee as the cash-strapped property developer inches closer to a debt restructuring that has loomed for months over global markets and the world’s second-largest economy.
The real estate giant, which is grappling with over $300 billion in liabilities and is at risk of becoming China’s biggest ever default, said on Monday that the committee included officials from state entities and would play an important role in “mitigating and eliminating the future risks” of the group.
OBSERVATION - This disaster continues to lurk in the background. A Lehman’s brothers disaster times 10, it would not only severely hit China, but globally.
____________________________________

Japan -

Japan PM says Tokyo will fundamentally strengthen its defense posture by looking into options including acquiring the capability to strike enemy bases.
NOTE - A threat directed towards China.
____________________________________

Russia -

Reports that there are more units from the Central Military District near Ukraine now than in the spring. This allows Russia to reinforce this area quickly with western and southern district units, which means Russia will have the forces necessary to start a large-scale invasion on short notice.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

Russian continues to position equipment and personnel forward. The west is supplying weapons/munitions to Ukraine while treating further actions. Biden and Putin to discuss deescalating the situation in an upcoming call.
____________________________________

Iran -

The German Foreign Ministry: Iran’s proposals on the nuclear agreement in the Vienna talks are unacceptable.

Iran FM Amir Abdolahian: We do not consider an interim agreement as a good agreement for us. An agreement needs to be comprehensive & Iran must be able to benefit from lifting of sanctions We will not be after plan B while negotiating [in Vienna]. The Western parties in the Vienna talks were not serious about our proposals.

OBSERVATION - Negotiations going Iran’s way. They will either get sanctions dropped or will blatantly ignore them and face on consequences.
__________________________________

Poland -

Polish Border Guards: Yesterday 35 attempts to cross it illegally were recorded at the Poland-Belarus border. Border guards officers issued 8 decisions to leave the territory of the Republic of Poland.
OBSERVATION - Conditions continues to be dialed back over what it was a couple weeks ago.
______________________________________


752 posted on 12/06/2021 7:26:14 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

A DAY THAT WILL LIVE IN INFAMY. . . . . .

Today there are many threats and means that can be used for a surprise attacks on the US. We are no longer safely isolated by the Alantic and Pacific oceans. 9/11 reaffirmed that and now 20 years later the methods and consequences have increased almost exponentially. Our enemies smell our weakness and that will only embolden them to strike knowing that any response will be muted. We are in probably the most dangerous time of our country and most are blissfully ignorant of the threat to themselves and their families.
________________________________

Wuhan virus -

Global Omicron reports a delta-level infection rate, but still substantially lower mortality - I’ve yet to see any deaths attributed to this variant.
_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

More aftershocks from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen public call for the repeal of the Nuremberg Code as a step to mandate the jab across the entire EU. The specific provision of the Nuremberg Code that will need to be jettisoned says: “The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential,” in reference to medical experiments performed on human beings.
OBSERVATION - Increasing pressure by globalists to force the jab on all. In the EU, Austria has complied, Germany is close behind. We are seeing one form of how it may be forced on the US.

A news report was from 7 News in Australia shows that pressure to be jabbed is headed to a new level. According to the report -
“People hoping to receive an organ transplant in Queensland may be denied the potentially life-saving procedure if they refuse to get vaccinated for COVID-19. Queensland Health has confirmed patients have “a minimum requirement of two doses of an approved COVID-19 vaccine prior to receiving a kidney, lung or heart transplant”. The mandate has been put in place because those who undergo such an operation have weakened immune systems, the authority said.”
OBSERVATION - Withholding lifesaving procedures, already has reared its head in parts of the US being made government policy in
Australia.

Pushback to DeBlazio’s jab mandate in NYC is coming hard and fast. He is using the excuse of Omicron to push the mandate. This is already on top of draconian measures. His legal authority on the mandate is also questionable.
OBSERVATION - NYC is already bleeding businesses from his previous policies that have turned it into essentially a third world hell hole. As a lame duck he lays this on his successor to clean up.
_____________________________

Economy -

Urea is a key component in fertilizers and is in severe short supply. it also has a second use and that is a key ingredient found in diesel ­exhaust fluid (DEF) – also known as AdBlue. Used to reduce diesel pollution, shortages of DEF threaten to put thousands of trucks on the side of the road, because newer diesel engines will go into a “safe mode”, restricting top speed. China is the world’s leading source of urea an recently banned its export in order to preserve its own fertilizer production.

OBSERVATION - Global agriculture has been hard hit from other factors the past two year from floods, drought and other sources (war, etc). Fertilizer is essential to maintain high yields ago feed the world. Nothing starts unrest and wars more than hungry stomaches. China recognizes this and is pulling its exports in for its own purposes. However, China seems to forget that it must import most of its food and if yields are reduced, those countries that feed it may withhold their exports to feed their own people.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

Biden has slashed the deportation of illegal migrants from 25 cities by roughly 90 percent.Only 18,713 illegals were formally “removed” — deported — from 25 interior cities, such as Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, from January to July in 2021, according to the data from the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. The 2021 removal number includes only 6,000 migrants convicted of serious crimes, such as MS-13 migrants.
By comparison, 2019, under Trump, 186,019 migrants were removed from the 25 cities, including 17,553 migrants convicted of serious crimes.
______________________________

Biden watch -

Phone call with Putin today. Reportedly no transcripts of the call will be released by the WH.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Lawlessness continues to run rampant across the kalifornina with the epicenter being the Bay area. Not only have high end department stores been looted but Cannabis shops have been hit as gangs of thieves broke into more than 15 shops throughout November during the series of ‘smash and grab’ robberies plaguing California.
Meanwhile, much of SF’s upscale shopping district is boarded up with few shoppers following the recent smash and grab robberies.
_________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance flights over the Black Sea region are increasing in frequency. Russia is complaining that these flights are reckless and threaten commercial traffic.
_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

The Delta-Montrose Electric Association (DMEA) is a member-owned and locally controlled rural electric cooperative that serves more than 34,000 customers in Colorado’s Montrose, Delta, and Gunnison counties revealed last week that it had discovered a breach of its internal network on November 7. The hacker attack resulted in disruption to phone, email, billing, and customer account systems, as well as documents, spreadsheets, and forms getting “corrupted.”
It is being suggested that the hack was a file-encrypting ransomware attack that wasn’t successful.

Microsoft announced on Monday that it had disrupted the cyberspying of a state-backed Chinese hacking group by seizing websites it used to gather intelligence from foreign ministries, think tanks and human rights organisations in the US and 28 other countries, the vast majority in Latin America.
The company said a Virginia federal court had granted its request last Thursday to seize 42 web domains that the Chinese hacking group, which it calls Nickel but which is also known as APT15 and Vixen Panda, were using to access targets typically aligned with China’s geopolitical interests. It said in a blog that “a key piece of the infrastructure the group has been relying on” in its latest wave of infiltrations was removed.
_________________________________

China -

biden announced a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics. China responded saying that they will take “countermeasures” . Australia, whose ties with China have nosedived over a range of disputes, has also raised the possibility of a diplomatic boycott. Many others out there are calling for a full boycott of the games.
NOTE - China has already made attendance by diplomats by invitation only, and is severely limiting attendance by non-diplomats.
____________________________________

Japan -

Japan’s recent announcement that they are looking to expand their capability to strike the bases of potential enemies (read China) has raised the specter that they are developing a first strike capability.
____________________________________

Russia -

Phone call with biden, continued military and rhetorical build up against Ukraine.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

Putin and Biden to discuss tensions around Ukraine, NATO’s advance towards Russian borders and Russian President’s initiative on security guarantees. biden’s big threat are unspecified ‘sanctions’.

US State Department: Blinken and Ukrainian President agreed to restore sovereignty over Crimea.

Downing Street says Boris Johnson and the leaders of the United States, Italy, France and Germany have agreed to present a “united front” against Russian threats towards Ukraine

OBSERVATION - The constant drum beat of war warnings now almost seem to be trying to prepare us for a real conflict. Lines are being drawn in the sand and they are boxing Russia in - to the point that conflict is their only option.
The world and our allies are closely watching this call since the US suffers severe credibility issues from the “cut & run” from Afghanistan.
____________________________________

Israel -

See Syria - airstrike
____________________________________

Syria -

Overnight Israeli jets struck Syria’s Latakia port, causing damage to a number of shipping containers, the state-run SANA broadcaster reports. Strike area matches exactly to the port area where cargo ship Artabaz unloaded ISO containers. Fires reported to be burning in the port.
__________________________________

Black Swans -

Various medical sources out there are already warning that the next pandemic will be far more deadly. This follows the discover of small pox vials and Bill Gates talking about a small pox pandemic.


753 posted on 12/07/2021 6:38:08 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

________________________________

Wuhan virus -

WHO and Pfizer are saying that current ‘vaccines’ are effective against Omicron . HOWEVER, I still am not seen deaths associated with Omicron being reported.

Another Israeli study documenting the superiority of natural immunity versus the jab.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full.pdf

A federal judge in Georgia issued a nationwide injunction that prevents the U.S. government from enforcing a COVID-19 vaccine mandate on federal contractors, temporarily shutting down the last remaining vaccine requirement by the Biden administration.
U.S. District Judge Stan Baker in Savannah, Georgia, said Congress did not clearly authorize the president to use procurement to impose a vaccine requirement on contractors that will have “vast economic and political significance.”
OBSERVATION - Current court orders have negated all of biden’s mandates issued in September. Appeals will continue by the administration, but the strength of the decisions.
_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern smashed any hope that the small country intends on moving past the increasingly ineffective and dangerous coronavirus injection.
During an interview with Mihingarangi Forbes of New Zealand’s “The Hui,” the Kiwi Dictator said in part that there will be no “endpoint” to the country’s vaccination program. “You know I don’t ever think I will be satisfied so long as there’s someone whose eligible whose choose… you know who – whose eligible and hasn’t been [vaccinated],”
“That’s were I’ve said – there’s not going to be an endpoint to this vaccination program. Once we’ve…obviously we’re rolling out boosters now so we’ve got another wave of people that we need to make sure we’re protecting again. So those who were vaccinated six months ago we really need them to come back or we need to go to them.”

Starting Saturday, December 4, New Brunswick will allow grocery stores to ban unvaccinated people from buying food, True North reported. The province announced the measure as part of the so-called “winter action plan”. The plan will allow businesses to ban unvaccinated individuals if they wish to do so. Grocery stores are among the businesses allowed to ban unvaccinated individuals.
The plan raises serious questions about human rights infringements as the province will legalize discrimination that could prevent individuals from obtaining food and feeding their families.
The Trudeau government has recently banned unvaccinated individuals from travelling within the country or to other countries using trains and airplanes.
OBSERVATION - Control the food, control the population. This is a huge civil rights violation.

Biden administration will continue to force Americans to wear masks on airplanes, trains, buses, airports, and train stations through mid-March at the very least, sources told Reuters.
Sources told Reuters that a formal announcement extending the compulsory measures through at least March 18th is expected on Thursday. The White House and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reportedly declined to comment. TSA previously had extended their forced masking order in August to run through January 18th.
_____________________________

Economy -

President Biden has accepted Saule Omarova’s request that her name be withdrawn for the nomination for Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, per a statement from him.
OBSERVATION - She was the latest of a line of extremely radical socialists. In her case she couldn’t lie her way out of her paper/speech trail.

The U.S. Treasury Department, as part of its efforts to combat corruption and terrorism, proposed a new rule Tuesday that requires companies to identify who owns and controls them, rather than the names of the people who formed the company. The proposal will “help close the loopholes that undermine U.S. national security, bolster economic fairness, and protect the integrity of our financial system,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.
Companies would be required under the proposal to disclose any “beneficial” owners. These people either exercise “substantial control” over the company or own in some form at least 25% of the company, according to a Treasury Department summary.

House Democrats forced through a bill on Tuesday creating a one-time exception to the filibuster to raise the nation’s borrowing limit before next week’s deadline. It is expected to pass the Senate.
OBSERVATION - in the deal, the debt limit will only be kicked down the road a couple of months. Democrats have no power to do anything else and as the focus turned quickly towards the 2022 midterms it will hang as an albatross on their necks.
______________________________

Biden watch -

biden’s call with Putin is receiving underwhelming reviews by the MSM.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Prosecutors in San Diego filed charges against at least 10 anti-fascist protesters who allegedly tried to disrupt a pro-Trump rally earlier this year with “violent criminal acts.” The defendants “are self-identified to be affiliated with Anti-fascists or Antifa” and gathered on Jan. 9 in San Diego to take “direct action” against a pro-Trump “Patriot March,” according to the San Diego County District Attorney’s Office. “Direct action” is defined as “acts of violence such as assault, battery, assault with deadly weapons, arson, and vandalism,” according to the DA’s office.
ALSO TRENDING - Hell suffering from a sudden cold snap. This is one of the very few cases being brought against Antifa elements.

The holiday display Christmas tree in front of News Corp. at 1211 Sixth Ave. was set on fire early Wednesday. A suspect has been arrested. Very little out there yet on motive. However, the link with Fox news suggests that there is a leftist motive for the attack.
_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

Chinese hackers on November 27, attacked Queensland’s CS Energy in a sustained ransomware attack which sources familiar with the matter say was only stopped at the last minute before it had the potential to shut down the company’s two thermal coal plants.
Had the attack been successful, it could have taken 3500 megawatts of power out of the grid – enough to power between 1.4 and three million homes – illustrating the devastating potential of cyber attacks to cripple the nation.

OBSERVATION - China has emphasized cyberwarfare as a key component of its war doctrines. With Australia’s announced support for Taiwan and now joining the US in a diplomatic boycott of the China olympics I’d expect more Chinese based cyber attacks and probes against Australian interests.
_________________________________

China -

UK would not send any ministers to the Olympiad in protest of China’s genocidal policies, joining the US, Australia and Lithuania.
____________________________________

Russia -

Biden warned Putin of countermeasures- including a threat to shut down Nord Stream 2 - if Russia further invades Ukraine. But a video call between the two leaders produced no breakthroughs, and 100,000 Russian troops remain near Ukraine’s borders. Russia will respond IF NATO troops are sent to Ukraine. Kremlin’s aide says that Biden promised Putin to discuss issue of non-enlargement of NATO to the east with allies

OBSERVATION - Probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has risen as a result of this video call. Putin is fully versed in the political dumpster fire that biden has created here and knows full well that biden is all talk and little do.

Lets be real, Putin knows full well that
- Biden is suffering from dementia and other health issues that impair his decision making abilities
- His WH is in disarray, with a totally incompetent VP and staff infighting
- Democrats in congress are more interested in their power and creating a socialist nation (one that would be after Putin’s heart) than waste energy on global issues
- The US military is in disarray with incompetent generals and demoralized servicemen. It is in not currently capable of deploying in mass to counter a Russian move.

Following biden’s lead, NATO is hesitant to put together a cohesive response. Putin is apparently driven by two principles - restoration of a ‘soviet union’ and creating a buffer against NATO expansion eastward. On its current trend, Putin could have as many as 200,000 troops staged to support an invasion, not counting Belarus forces. I think his military strategists will not make the same mistakes as 2014 that resulted in the stalled situation in Dombas. However, his forces will still need to be able to execute a quick victory as it is estimated that Russian forces only have supplies/fuel to last a few days because Russia has not got the supplies for anything longer. The invading units will go for some logistic targets that will provide needed fuel and food, but that cannot be relied on.
A Russian invasion will do the opposite of what he desires, causing NATO forces to reply further east into Poland and the Baltic States. A Ukraine invasion would be easy justification as Russian demonstrates hostile / aggressiveness towards the west. Thus tensions will only continue to rise and not decline. If Russia attacks, Putin is basing it on the concept that the additional leverage he has controlling natural gas as well as military positioning will blunt any NATO response to Ukraine falling under the resurrected Russian (Soviet Union) influence.

My tea leaves suggest that January 2022 could be the critical go/no go month for a Russian attack is they don’t get the concessions from NATO and Ukraine they want.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

See Russian discussion above.
____________________________________

Europe General -

NATO warning of repercussions if Russia invades Ukraine. Still drawing short of deploying forces into Ukraine.
____________________________________

Iran -

The head of the Central Intelligence Agency said Monday that the United States does not have evidence that Iran has made a decision to weaponize its nuclear program. The US spy agency “doesn’t see any evidence that Iran’s Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei] has made a decision to move to weaponize,” CIA Director William Burns told the Wall Street Journal’s annual CEO Council, according to CBS News.
OBSERVATION - This has got to be one of the most ignorant statements by anyone in the biden administration. Iran has been enriching to 60% purity, only a small technical step away from the 90% necessary for weaponization.
__________________________________

Belarus -

The Biden admin is watching for the possibility that “Russia could actually use Belarusian territory to march on Ukraine and/or mask its forces as Belarusian forces,”
OBSERVATION - There is also a strong possibility that Belarus forces could join Russian forces in any attack.
_______________________________________


754 posted on 12/08/2021 7:10:18 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

________________________________

Wuhan virus -

WHO says the Omicron variant appears to be no worse than other coronavirus mutants. CDC says it still appears to be ‘mild’. Rochelle Walensky told the AP that out of the 43 known U.S. cases of Omicron, just one has been hospitalized.

European CDC: Out of hundreds of cases of Omicron here, not a single one involves severe illness. All cases for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild. No deaths have been reported among these cases so far.

OBSERVATION - The massive cry of “WOLF” over Omicron appears to be a nothing burger so far.
_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

DR. FAUCI: “I would prefer, and we all would prefer that people would be voluntarily getting vaccinated, but if they’re not gonna do that, sometimes you’ve got to do things that are unpopular, but that clearly supersede individual choices...”
NOTE - “individual choices” = rights.

Fauci said during a CNN interview on Wednesday that it’s only a matter of time before the definition of being fully vaccinated against COVID-19 changes. Fauci’s words came in response to a question from CNN host Kate Bolduan who asked, “Is it a matter now of when, not if, the definition of fully vaccinated changes?”

US Senate passed a bill to ban biden’s OSHA vaccine mandates for private employers.

Justin Trudeau regime will spend at least another $5 million to establish more “isolation” and “quarantine” camps in British Columbia.
Known as “Canada’s Safe Voluntary Isolation Sites Program,” the scheme is supposedly being expanded for the purpose of facilitating people who are unable to “self-isolate” at home and require “assistance” from the Canadian government. Since Fall 2020, the federal government of Canada has pumped around $100 million into its Safe Voluntary Isolation Sites Program, which currently has locations in not just B.C., but also Ontario, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia. While the claim is that these facilities will always be “voluntary,” the reality is that local health officials still have the ability to determine who needs to go to one. In other words, they can quickly become “mandatory” on a whim.

OMICRON OBSERVATION - See Wuhan above. It appears that much of the globalist world jumped the gun and the globalist powers that be were caught with an underperforming variant upon which to base their desires for increased restrictions and removal of individual rights.
_____________________________

Biden watch -

Scheduled to speak with the Ukraine president today.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

At least 12 major U.S. cities have broken their annual homicide records. Two other cities are on the verge of doing so.
The cities that have already suffered a record number of homicides are:
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Columbus, Ohio
Indianapolis, Indiana
Louisville, Kentucky
St. Paul, Minnesota
Portland, Oregon
Tucson, Arizona
Toledo, Ohio
Austin, Texas
Rochester, New York
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
The two cites that are likely to break their annual record before the end of the month are Minneapolis and Milwaukee.

OBSERVATIONS - Very little doubt this is linked to the BLM/Antifa riots of last year combined with the defund the policed efforts (and drastic reductions in police forces) as well as leftist governments and DAs refusing to prosecute criminals.

Some BLM elements are supporting Jussie Smollett and there are hints that violent protests could be triggered if he is found guilty.
_________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Recent polling indicates that only 22% want biden to run for president in 2024. Only 18% want harris. Democrats are in a serious pickle to retain control of the House and Senate with such unpopular presidential numbers.
_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The House passed the defense spending bill and the Senate expects to follow suit next week. Notable additions include $7.1 billion for a Pacific Defense Initiative, $4 billion for the European Defense Initiative, and removing female Selective Service registration from the final version. Overall spending increased by $25 billion above the President’s original request.
_________________________________

China -

Chinese property giant Evergande has defaulted for the first time, Fitch Ratings agency said Thursday, as authorities scrambled to avoid contagion throughout the world’s second biggest economy. Fitch also declared Kaisa, a smaller property company but one of China’s most indebted, had defaulted on $400 million of bonds. More than 10 Chinese real estate firms have now defaulted in the second half of this year.
OBSERVATIONS - Impacts still to be seen in global markets. Part of the delay has been China’s efforts to mitigate any fallout from the failure.

China has been flying military aircraft into the Taiwan ADZ on nearly a daily basis. There have been no large number sortiess lately.
____________________________________

India/China -

The Air version of Indian BrahMos supersonic cruise missile was successfully test fired from the supersonic fighter aircraft Sukhoi 30 MK-I at 1030 hrs from Integrated Test Range, Chandipur off the coast of Odisha on December 08, 2021.
OBSERVATION - This development has implications in the current standoff with China, providing India more flexibility in launching this standoff weapon that would be difficult for China to shoot down.

India’s Defense Chief General Bipin Rawat, his wife, and 11 other people were killed after a military helicopter they were traveling in crashed in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has said.
OBSERVATION - It is too early to tell how the death of Rawat will impact India’s defense posture along its disputed border with China.
__________________________________

Russia -

Putin was dutifully unimpressed by biden’s threats from yesterday’s call. Russia continues to make preparations for war. The leverage is clearly on Russia’s side right now, taking advantage of weak Western leaders, political environment, energy crises, and their proximity to potential targets

Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov at the meeting with Foreign military attaches, denied that Russia prepares to attack Ukraine, calls lies any information about it He further said 95% of Russian nuclear forces are ready for combat use and accused United States in training launches of cruise missiles against targets in Russia by strategic bombers
____________________________________

Ukraine -

Biden said Wednesday he would not deploy US troops to Ukraine to deter a possible Russian invasion, telling reporters the option was “not on the table.”

For the first time, Kyiv’s City Hall has issued a public service announcement about bomb shelters, and emergency alert systems. On its Facebook page, City Hall shared this post by Deputy Mayor – Secretary of the Kyiv City Council Volodymyr Bondarenko.

State Dept spokesman stated that the US is coordinating with allies “to ensure that we’re operating from the same sheet of music, that we have a common understanding of Russia’s plans, but also to see to it that we have a common understanding of what would need to happen” if Russia invades Ukraine.

Recent Russian battle preparations include sustainment and medical assets arriving in Ukraine’s border regions. A Russian “flying hospital” moved from the Central Military District (Moscow) to Rostov-on-Don, well within the so-called “golden hour” for many combat casualties. The aircraft likely delivered not only medical supplies and personnel but could serve as a staging area for hospital operations and evacuations. This indicates Russia is prepared to take and treat casualties, something not seen as a component of recent military exercises.
Communications networks have been deploying closer to the Ukraine border, with some stations now broadcasting for the first time in two years.

OBSERVATION - Some analysts suggest that the Baltics, Romania, and Poland are likely to send troops to Ukraine in the event of invasion. This would trigger NATO and US involvement in combat. The recent Russian deployments seem to reinforce the assumption that Russia if going to invade no matter what, taking advantage of a weak and indecisive US and expected delayed response by NATO forces/countries. Putin claims he wants NATO eastward expansion to cease, but may actually get just the opposite if he attacks.
____________________________________

Europe General -

Germany has tacitly agreed to cease gas flows from Russia’s NordStream I & II if Ukraine is invaded further. Their hesitance to agree is the result of a months-long scheme by Russia to reduce natural gas reserves in Europe. Winter storage levels are around 12-15% of capacity, meaning the Germans and several other European nations have mere weeks of fuel reserves. This will become a major geopolitical bargaining chip and touch-point for citizens in support of a conflict against Russia. Quality of life impacts will be felt immediately as rolling blackouts would become commonplace until at least the summer when alternative power sources become viable. (FO)
____________________________________

Israel -

US official tells reuters Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, is heading to DC this week, will discuss w Secretary of Defense Austin possible military exercises ahead of worst case scenarios in the event nuclear talks w Iran fail.
In one potential scenario Israeli strike plan in Iran will focus on 4 key sites: Isfahan, Arak, Fordow & Natanz,. IDF will mobilize over 100 planes for assault; satellites closely monitoring nuclear facilities to detect any changes and track Iranian progress.

Israel has completed its massive 30-foot wall at the Gaza Strip, and defense officials are calling it a “game-changer,” reports Newsmax Jerusalem correspondent Daniel Cohen.
The wall runs 40 miles, end-to-end, and covers the entire length of the Gaza Strip both above and underground.
“The barrier stops those who try to cross above ground and more importantly, below ground as well. [This is] an important countermeasure developed after Hamas militants used tunnels to blindside Israeli troops in a war in 2014.”
____________________________________

Iran -

Biden administration is moving to tighten enforcement of sanctions against Iran, according to senior U.S. officials, the 1st sign of Washington increasing economic pressure on Tehran as diplomatic efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal falter.
__________________________________

Iraq -

The Iraqi National Security Adviser announces the end of the combat missions of the international coalition forces in the country. This follows a Joint statement expected today on U.S. transition to non-combat roll in Iraq. “U.S. forces will remain in Iraq . in an advising assisting enabling an intelligence sharing role to support the Iraqi Security Forces in their fight against ISIS.”
_________________________________

Poland -

Poland’s PM ⁦Morawiecki after a meeting with Italian PM Draghi in Rome: on Sunday I will call on chancellor Scholz not to succumb pressure from Russia and not to allow NordStream2 to be used as instrument for blackmail by Russia
______________________________________

Belarus -

Belarus has opened a new military outpost on the border with Ukraine, near the town of Malorita in the Brest region. By the end of the year, the Belarusian Border Committee promises to open two more such outposts on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
_______________________________________

Black Swans -

Continuing in the inter webs are concerns that China may have hidden strategic rockets in containers stacked on ships around the world - particularly the US. This delivery method is not new, intial fears surfaced after 9/11 that Iran or Iraq could hide a simpler short range missile in the containers and launch against the US. Even the EMP concerns are relatively old. As I pointed out the last time I address this, such an attack does fit the Chinese asymetrical military doctrine of open warfare. Included in this are cyber and other attacks.

The uniformed have been quick to say the ‘big one’ is about to hit the Cascadia subduction zone due to a series of earthquakes hitting off the coast of Oregon, U.S. on December 7 and 8, 2021. The quakes are taking place at a shallow depth of about 10 km (6.2 miles), some 500 km (320 miles) W of Salem, Oregon.
These quakes are right lateral faults associated with the Blqnco Fault zone, a transform fault zone associated the the Juan De Fuca spreading zone. This spreading zone is on the western margin of the plate with the Cascadia zone on the eastern margin. Separated by distance, this swarm is unlikely to trigger the big one on their own. They do represent the active tectonic forces overall driving the plate beneath the Pacific Northwest which WILL trigger the next one. But on their own, don’t jump on the doom wagon.


755 posted on 12/09/2021 6:36:45 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla

As usual, your comments and analysis are much appreciated.

A few additional thoughts:

Russia would not be doing what they are doing militarily near the border with Ukraine unless they expected to gain something from it. Thus far it seems they have gained nothing.

The steps they have taken cost an unknown amount but are not free. And they create a negative impression of Russia in much of the world.

The negative impression may adversely affect Russia in a business sense.

It is even possible the Russian buildup will lead to increased military spending in the parts of Europe that feel threatened. (Talk is cheap, so I would not expect Germany, France, and the UK to actually do anything.)

So.. Given these negatives, what is Russia’s objective?

Personally, I think Russia can see the obvious: U.S. leadership is incredibly weak and our ability to respond is nearly non-existent. If Russia wishes to annex the portions of Ukraine with substantial populations of ethnic Russians to Russia itself, what better time to do so?

The next question is when?

Historically, winter in that part of the world is where armies go to die. But that applies to attacks on Russia. It may not be relevant if Russia’s objective is limited to something they can quickly achieve and then stop.

In that case, winter would work in Russia’s favor just as it has in the past. A western military response would be difficult, and the loss of Russian natural gas in western Europe would create civilian havoc.

If Russia EVER intends to add portions of Ukraine, they cannot risk waiting until next year’s elections in the U.S. change control of Congress. Next winter would be too late. Spring and/or summer would throw away their weather advantage.

So... My personal guess is any time between Christmas this year and the middle of next month. It is interesting that Putin very publicly stated that his military would be given two days off around New Year’s day. A statement like that could easily be designed to mislead.

If this is limited to a Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine, the world response will be all talk and no action. It will blow over within months.

A much worse scenario would include coordination between China and Russia. If China decides to take over Taiwan at the same time then things could spiral out of control.

However, from China’s perspective, the same U.S. weakness would work in China’s favor. China has the additional advantage of a near strangle hold on many things used in the U.S., such as medicines and medical supplies, and the raw materials used in modern electronics. If China took over Taiwan they would gain significantly in high tech chip/circuit manufacturing as well.

I’m sure you’re aware of all this, but I thought it might useful to put it in writing.


756 posted on 12/09/2021 10:28:13 AM PST by EternalHope
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To: EternalHope

Always good to write out thoughts. Russian deployments have gone far beyond an exercise, Russia wants Ukraine as a buffer.
Winter provides solid ground for armor movements. Eastern Ukraine is pretty marshy, not good for armor.
Watching China as the worst case scenario is in play particularly with recent joint exercises.


757 posted on 12/09/2021 12:03:41 PM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla

An additional thought:

I didn’t mention Israel/Iran in my previous post, but that area could also become relevant in the near term.

Iran and Israel have their own agenda and time table. Iran intends to destroy Israel, and is close to having the nukes to do so (assuming they could be delivered, no easy task). Israel has no intention of letting Iran get nukes.

In a worst case scenario war would erupt in the Middle East at the same time Russia attacked Ukraine and China attacked Taiwan. (An all out war between Iran and Israel would most likely include other nations in the area as well, and could potentially draw Russia in via Syria.)

If Israel is winning, Iran would almost certainly activate their sleeper cells in the U.S.

This, plus my previous post, could explain the seemingly stupid and irrational statements recently made by some high level politicians in the U.S. threatening first use of nuclear weapons.

None of us know the future, especially me. What I’ve speculated about COULD happen, but that does not mean it actually will.

We live in “interesting times”. (That’s an ancient Chinese curse..)


758 posted on 12/09/2021 12:46:22 PM PST by EternalHope
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

Morning - Note upgrades to Russian/Ukraine related topics.
________________________________

Wuhan virus - YELLOW *updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - OMICRON is a big nothing burger. Globally there have been no fatalities associated with it and its transmission is not significantly greater than Delta. .

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is saying that it needs a full 75 years in order to fully release all data concerning the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine against COVID-19. Previously, the FDA claimed it needed 55 years to release vaccine information such as safety, efficacy, test protocols, and adverse reaction reports, among other data.
OBSERVATION - Slow moving cover up.

Still no reported deaths associated with Omicron that i’ve been able to find.
_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Global powers that be (GPTB) backing off from hyping Omicron given its underwhelming threat. Countries and the US are moving forward for harsher treatment of the Unvaxxed anyway.

Illinois Representative Jonathan Carroll wants to push through a change to the state’s insurance law that would mean health insurers no longer have to cover unvaccinated people who get Covid, forcing people to pay their medical bills out of pocket.
OBSERVATION - Expect more attacks like this to strip away medical coverage for the unvaxxed as a way to coerce compliance to their rules.

biden ordered that the US government must be carbon neutral by 2050. He ordered that agencies start cutting emissions and to “buy clean.”.
OBSERVATION - Climate change is another key avenue being used by globalists to impose restrictions on the world. US govt purchases huge quantities of stuff - driving the market in many ways.

Pfizer chief: I think we’ll all need a fourth vaccine dose, and maybe sooner than we think. Echos what Fauci said in that the goal of ‘fully vaccinated’ will continue to change.

Governor Jay Inslee says unvaccinated Washingtonians are domestic terrorists. Inslee’s comment was made at a press conference last week. He made no caveats, nor did he approach the issue with a sense of nuance. “Thirty-four percent of Washingtonians are walking around with a time bomb in their backpack because they’re not vaccinated,”
OBSERVATION - Demonizng opposition is a common tactic used by leftists. Expect this trend to continue in blue states as well as countries trying to consolidate their wuhan derived powers.
_____________________________

Economy - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - US inflation continues to get worse. Setting record highs. Supply issues continue to get worse. Congress keeps kicking budget and debt ceiling down the road a month at a time. China’s Evergande has defaulted posing a threat depending on how well China is able to mitigate the damage.

November’s inflation rate came out at 6.8%. That would be the highest rate since Jimmy Carter was president in the early 1980s — and in the lifetimes of most Americans. And the CPI change since last year, according to the Federal Reserve of St Louis FRED is a staggering 16.262%. Some economists are saying that November will be the ‘high water’ mark and that inflation will drop to the 3% range in the next few months.

Next year, supply chains for automobiles, semiconductors, raw materials, and finished goods will likely see a declination of quality into Q2 2022 before realizing any improvement headed into the second half of next year.

Goldman Sachs expects that inflation will begin to normalize after “July 2022,” when Goldman says the Fed will start to raise interest rates. Goldman says “we expect a funds rate hike every six months,” and inflation “should settle 0.5% above the pre-pandemic level on average, in part because central banks have tweaked their goals accordingly.” Inflation is at 6.2% right now,

4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in August, and 4.4 million quit in September, totaling 5.39% of the workforce in the country. In 2022, job opportunities are expected to remain plentiful, with the “Great Resignation” lasting well into the year, according to ZipRecruiter Chief Economist Julia Pollak.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization finds that world food prices have increased 27.3% year over year as a whole since last November, pushing the food price index to an all-time high for the last decade.

Senate passes a ‘fast track’ debt ceiling bill bypassing the filibuster on a special case basis. Kicks the can into the January 2022.

Just when we have a trucker shortage getting shipments out of kalifornia, the global warming goons in that state take actions to further reduce the number of trucks. State regulators on Thursday voted to crack down on heavy duty trucks weighing more than 14,000 pounds (6,350 kilograms) — those big semi-trailers that make up just 3% of all vehicles in California but spend so much time on the road they account for more than half of all pollution from cars and trucks each year.

New rules will require these big trucks, including ones from other states passing through Califonria — to be tested at least four times per year to make sure they meet the state’s standards for particulate matter and ozone pollution. To enforce the rules, state officials say they will install roadside monitoring devices to catch trucks that pollute too much. Automated license plate readers would help authorities identify offenders, who could be cited if they refuse to make repairs. The state has two of these unattended monitoring devices in place and plans to install more. The devices resemble toll booths and capture a sample of the truck’s exhaust as it passes through without stopping.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

At least 54 people have been killed and scores more injured after the truck they were being transported in crashed in southern Mexico, authorities say.
More than 150 people, said to be migrants from Central America, were crammed into the truck’s trailer when it rolled in the state of Chiapas.

Yuma Mayor Douglas Nicholls proclaimed a local emergency at approximately 1:50 p.m. on Thursday, Dec. 9, due to the unprecedented numbers of migrants entering the city prior to being processed and released by Border Patrol. The influx of these undocumented persons entering the Yuma area is resulting in a humanitarian and border crisis.

Texas National Guard troops deployed to the southern border have apprehended over 2,600 illegal migrants since last Wednesday. The troops are stationed at the border as part of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s “Operation Lone Star,” which has mobilized state assets to counter illegal activity. Texas National Guard border public affairs officer Major Mike Perry told the DCNF that the Texas National Guard “is getting a lot of apprehensions right now.”
______________________________

Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade

During yesterday’s ceremony for former Senator Bob Dole, Biden initially stood next to Harris. Once he realized this he swapped places with his wife. Obviously the imaging is not favorable to a happy happy WH.

It was reported yesterday that Biden and other U.S. officials planned to advise Ukraine to cede land to appease Russia and prevent an invasion. White House press secretary Jen Psaki had to belay that ‘order’ again saying the reports were “absolutely false,”
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward
DISCUSSION - New trials are stimulating BLM violent protests. Potentially may also leverage a reversal of Roe v Way for addition violence.

Jessie Smollett was found guilty on 5 out of 6 counts of lying to police about a hate crime. Other than a statement from BLM activists in Chicago, no protests are scheduled.
_________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW *updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - Democrat infighting increasing. biden / harris split increasing and it is becoming clear there is an effort developing to replace harris.

See Biden watch for reactions to being seated next to harris
_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments - BLUE trending neutral

US air reconnaissance platforms have increased their flights in the Black Sea region monitoring Russian forces build up. Many of these flight are being intercepted / escorted by Russian fighter jets.
_________________________________

China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

The House voted 428-1 to ban the import of goods from China using slave labor. The bill (HR1155). The Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force and State Department will determine if the treatment of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang “constitute crimes against humanity or genocide” within 90-days of enactment Companies trading on U.S. exchanges will also be required to disclose their engagement with any entity using slave labor or mass surveillance programs.

The U.S. government imposed an arms embargo on Cambodia Wednesday over complaints about human rights, corruption and coordinated activities with China there. Cambodia’s leader Hun Sen is one of China’s closest partners in Asia.

The Chinese government created a new “supply chain organizer” called the Chinese Logistics Group to combat logistics and supply chain issues. China’s government formed the group by merging China Railway Materials, Huamao International Freight Limited (Shenzhen Branch), China Logistics, China National Packaging Corporation, and China National Materials Storage and Transportation Group. The group has investors, including COSCO Shipping, China Eastern Airlines, and China Merchants Group.

While debt in the property sector contributes to construction slowdowns, debt contributes to China’s economic downturn. The latest report from Evergrande shows that the real estate giant has defaulted. The Chinese government is trying to regulate the collapse, not through a bailout, but assistance in what some analysts call an “orderly break up” of the conglomerate.

China states it will attack U.S. forces that come to aid Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Taiwan Ministry of Defense:13 PLA aircraft (Y-8 EW, H-6*2, J-16*6, Y-8 ASW, J-10*2 and KJ-500 AEW&C) entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on December 10, 2021.
NOTE - these flights are almost ‘normal’ occurring on almost a daily basis.

China’s weather woes aren’t letting up. With record rain/flooding in the northern half of the nation over the last two years, drought has gripped the south. China’s major southern cities Guangzhou and Shenzhen have warned of severe water shortages lasting into next spring as the East River, a tributary of Guangdong’s Pearl River, continues to be hit by its most severe drought in decades.
____________________________________

Japan - BLUE

Toyota Motor Co. on Friday expanded production stoppages at some factories in Japan because of a shortage of components shipped from parts plants in Southeast Asia.
The latest halts will cut car output by 9,000 vehicles when added to curbs announced on Thursday, affecting production of Lexus models and its four-wheel-drive Land Cruiser, Toyota said in a press release.
____________________________________

Russia - ORANGE and increasing *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Putin sees US/NATO weakness, especially after his phoncon with biden. Russia deploying medical and combat sustainment units to the region - a step unusual for an ‘exercise’.

See comments under Ukraine,Poland and Europe in general.
____________________________________

Ukraine - ORANGE *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Increased potential of an attack by Russia.

Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky yesterday. He also spoke to leaders of the Bucharest Nine group of eastern flank
NATO allies. He promised to deploy ‘additional capabilities’ into the region according to a Lithuanian sources.

France and NATO: Russia must stop escalation on Ukraine’s borders and adhere to a diplomatic solution.

Russian Foreign Ministry accuses Ukraine in provocation because of sailing Navy ship in Azov Sea yesterday. The vessel is a command ship that sailed towards approaching Kerch strait near Crimea before turning away.

____________________________________

Belarus - YELLOW *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Migrant ‘crisis’ has significantly decrease. Monitoring / evaluating if it will participate with Russia in a Ukraine invasion.

The UK will send a team of troops to Lithuania to see what help they can offer Lithuanian forces dealing with a migrant crisis on their border with Belarus.
________________________________________

Poland - YELLOW trending upward *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Migrant ‘crisis’ has significantly decrease. Monitoring / evaluating if it will participate against Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. Ongoing illegal islamic migrant issues with Belarus

Poland is exploring the purchase of 250 Abrams tanks from the U.S. to counter a potential Russian invasion. The deal would cost roughly $3 billion or 21% of Poland’s military budget.
________________________________________

Europe General - YELLOW TRENDING UPWARD *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in a Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

____________________________________

Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezebollah and Iran continues.

Israeli and American military leaders are set to discuss possible military drills to practice destroying Iranian nuclear facilities in a potential worst-case scenario, a senior US official said on Wednesday. The US official did not give details about the potential preparations.
____________________________________

Iran - ORANGE

Biden orders ‘preparations’ in case Iran nuclear diplomacy fails, the White House says. These ‘preparations’ are unspecified and talks are not going anywhere fast.
__________________________________

Iraq - YELLOW trending down *updated 121021*

US announced end of combat operations against ISIS, while keeping troops in country.
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759 posted on 12/10/2021 6:45:48 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; BusterDog; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

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Wuhan virus -

A health official in Israel claimed that people may need seven shots of the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. He argued that with new COVID variants emerging, the need for vaccines will continue.

Ugur Sahin, the CEO of BioNTech (Pfizer’s “vaccine” partner), has announced plans to start selling a three-dose injection regimen specifically for the “Omicron”. This new three-injection series is in addition to the two-dose regimen already available from Pfizer-BioNTech as the regular vaccine, as well as the subsequent “booster” shot. This means that at least six shots will now be pushed to “cure”.
OBSERVATION - All this for a variant’s who’s symptoms are no worse than the common cold.

The plot thickens, the CDC’s been examining the 43 known cases of Omicron here in the U.S. and discovered that one person — who traveled internationally — had symptoms on November 15, nearly 10 days before South African scientists alerted the WHO to the variant’s existence. Among the cases, 58% of the patients were between 18 and 39 years of age, and 79% were fully vaccinated at least 14 days before symptom onset or testing positive. Fourteen people had received booster doses and six had recovered from previous Covid infections, according to the CDC. Five received their booster dose less than 14 days before symptom onset.

OBSERVATION - More and more the failure of these mRNA ‘vaccines’ to infection are coming to light, making it harder for the wuhan cult to maintain narrative and forces them to move the goal posts.

The UK is facing a substantial wave of Omicron infections in January without further restrictions, scientists say.
The number of deaths from the variant by the end of April could range from 25,000 to 75,000 depending on how well vaccines perform, they said. But the scientists behind the study said there was still uncertainty around the modelling.

OBSERVATION - “uncertainty” indeed! I’m still looking for documented deaths attributed to Omicron and so far the ‘vaccines’ have not prevented anything. This is scientific scaremongering.

A study released this week in the American Heart Association’s (AHA) publication Circulation found that young patients who experienced myocarditis were overwhelmingly injected with an experimental mRNA COVID-19 shot within a month of the heart condition starting. The study looked at data on 139 adolescent or young adult patients, all under 21 years old, “with suspected myocarditis within 30 days of COVID-19 vaccination” from 26 healthcare centers in America. It found that 136, or 97.8%, has received an mRNA shot and 131, or 91.4%, after a Pfizer jab with 128, or 91.4%, coming after the second jab. The median age was 15.8 with males (126, or 90.6%) making up the largest share. Symptoms generally started within 2 days of being jabbed, and chest pains (99.3%) were the most common symptom.

OBSERVATION - Don’t remember if I noted this study, there are so many coming out on this subject. Were this any other ‘vaccine’ it would be pulled immediately.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul reinstated the statewide indoor maks mandate on Friday, warning New Yorkers who fail to comply with the mandate will face a $1,000 fine. In a press conference, Hochul warned New York would require another lockdown if its residents failed to wear the masks in all indoor venues. The mask mandate will go into effect on Dec. 13. The state will then reevaluate whether to continue the mandate after Jan. 15.
IN RELATED - Oregon seeking to make mask mandates permanent.

Italy is making life more uncomfortable for unvaccinated people this holiday season, excluding them from indoor restaurants, theatres, and museums starting Monday to reduce the spread of coronavirus and encourage vaccine sceptics to get their shots. Fines can be as high as 1000 euros.

Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) patients in Singapore who are not recognized as fully vaccinated — meaning those who are only partially vaccinated and those who completely refuse vaccination — are no longer eligible for health coverage and have to pay for their medical bills in full.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Its not about virus, its about control and breaking the will of the people. All designed to coerce unvaccinated holdouts to get the jab.

Canada has contracted hotels to serve a wuhan isolation facilities. Reports of rights deprivaitons, poor food and living conditions. The government says that COVID vaccine-free Canadians who arrive by air will now be mandated to “stay in a designated quarantine facility or other suitable location while they await the result of their on-arrival test.” However, even ‘fully vaccinated’ citizens are now facing isolation requirements.

Austrian’s are pleading for the world to help end their rapidly emerging police state. The country’s vaccine mandate law will take effect on February 1, 2022. Unvaccinated people, including children as young as 14-years-old, can be fined up to 2000 euros each time they are caught. In addition, the government can ticket the same individuals several times a day. If you refuse to pay your fine, offenders will be thrown in a special prison for unvaccinated people for up to one year.
Unlike other prisoners, the public purse will not pay for an individual’s incarceration. Instead, the inmate will have to bear the costs incurred during their prison stay. The perpetrator also has to pay for his food and his prison cell.

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Economy -

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis on Friday estimating that President Joe Biden’s ‘Build Back Better’ (BBB) plan could increase the federal deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade if the proposed programs are made permanent.

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Invasion of Illegals -

New York City approved a measure to allow almost 800,000 non-citizens to vote in local elections on Thursday. The legislation gives non-citizens who have lived in the city for at least 30 days and are legal permanent residents in the U.S. — including green card holders, individuals with workers permits and DACA holders — the right to vote in city elections, including mayor, public advocate, borough president and city council, CNN reports.
The New York State Republican Party vowed last week to take legal action to stop the measure.

The “Yuma Gap” is the small corner of the world where Arizona, California, and Mexico intersect. And it has become one of the primary destinations for illegals trying to cross the border into the United States.
OBSERVATION - Manpower shortages made worse by required woke training have overwhelmed the border patrol in this region.
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Biden watch -

The White House is blaming the press for biden’s abysmally low popularity ratings , The Hill is reporting.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

New York City Mayor-elect Eric Adams is sticking to his guns on his anti-crime stance. During a recent event, he doubled down on his tough-on-crime stance and issued a thinly-veiled warning to bad actors who might seek to engage in violence. Though a democrat, he won his election by running on an unapologetically pro-law enforcement and anti-crime platform. His message resonated with New York City residents, who have experienced the impact of ever-rising crime rates. It was a tremendous blow to the progressive elites .
OBSERVATION - To accomplish his goals, he must gain the confidence of the police force in that he has their back and restore morale. NYPD has had its numbers decimated by retirements, resignations and poor recruitment efforts because the soon to be former mayor DeBlasio created pro crime initiatives and stuck the knife in the backs of the police. This has placed any effort to restore law and order way behind the 8 ball.
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CYBER/CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

Journalist John Stossel is suing Facebook after Facebook’s ‘fact checkers’ labeled climate change information that Stossel posted as “false and misleading”. In the middle of all this is the nefarious website “Climate Feedback” which has a bunch of climate zealots that write up what they claim are “fact checks” for articles, videos, and news stories they disagree with.

Facebook just blew the “fact check” claim right out of the water in court. In its response to Stossel’s defamation claim, Facebook responds on Page 2, Line 8 in the court document (download it below) that Facebook cannot be sued for defamation (which is making a false and harmful assertion) because its ‘fact checks’ are mere statements of opinion rather than factual assertions.

Opinions are not subject to defamation claims, while false assertions of fact can be subject to defamation.

OBSERVATION - The emperor has no clothes. I suspect this admission will generate more, similar lawsuits against FB.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint aircraft for SIGINT flew an unusually mission over the middle of Ukraine heading for the frontline in Donbas. Numerous other assets in the region flying as well.
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China -

Taiwan Ministry of Defense reports that 2 PLA J-11 entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ on December 11, 2021.
OBSERVATIONS - Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ are are taking the shape of practice attack runs.

Forbes reported that Evergrande was downgraded to ‘RD (Restricted Default)’ status. According to former Fitch analyst Dr. Marco Metzler: …’Fitch’s definition of an “RD” rating equals a non-payment of principal. The company has suffered a so called unfunded default on a material financial obligation, but has not yet entered bankruptcy, administration, receivership, liquidation or other formal resolution proceedings, and has not otherwise ceased operations. ’ Evergrande has been selling assets for purposes that may or may not end up in the hands of the bondholders. When the company finally comes under receivership and the courts, the ending financials of the company could be very ugly for bondholders.
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Russia -

INCREASED WARNING - OSINT and other analysts are noting the continued build up of military assets that go far beyond those necessary for a military ‘exercise’. Putin has seriously deployed for combat.
Major red flag - Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and cancelled a middle eastern trip that includes Israel.

Russian MFA published a list of demands the West must meet to defuse tensions & ensure Russian security: It wants legal guarantees from NATO not to expand to the East and a formal renouncement of the 2008 Bucharest summit decision that “Ukraine and Georgia will become members of NATO”.

Putin is saying the war in the country’s east (Donbas) looks like genocide. The Russian president’s remarks on Thursday were aimed at addressing the issue of discrimination against Russian speakers beyond Russia’s borders, many of whom live in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. He said that Russophobia was the first step towards genocide.
“We see and know what is happening in Donbas,” he said, referring to the conflict zone. “It certainly looks like genocide.”
OBSERVATION - Putin used a similar excuse for the capture of Crimea, Georgia and the stalemated attempt to seize the Donbas region. On its face it is a bogus excuse, but it plays well to Russians.

UK and France have warned Russia that there will be severe consequences if it invades Ukraine.
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Ukraine -

Ukraine has started preparing and training citizens for resistance operations. Part of this is beginning to distribute weapons and munitions to select individuals. Polling indicates that 78% of the population view Russia as the ‘enemy’. Other preparations include getting information out on the location of bomb shelters and similar facilities.

Ukrainian Navy: The Russian Federation has announced restrictions on navigation in about 70% of the Sea of Azov and announced artillery fire in areas near Mariupol, Berdyansk and Henichesk

OVER ALL OBSERVATION - One of the key sticking points in the current standoff with Russia is the February 2015 Minsk Agreement. According to the deal, Kiev should grant autonomy to Donbass via a constitutional amendment, referred to as “special status”; issue a general amnesty; and start a dialogue with the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Each side is claiming the other is ignoring/violating the agreement.

NOTE - I’m spending some time this weekend trying to find reliable weather data for eastern Ukraine.
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Europe General -

Finland announced it is buying 64 - F35 stealth jets. This is one of the unintended consequences of Moscow’s aggressive actions towards Ukraine, now has neighbors rearming themselves in significant ways.

The Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth has returned from its maiden operational deployment. HMS Defender and HMS Diamond also returned from the 26,000 mile round trip. The flagship is part of a nine-ship force, seven of them British, which set off from Portsmouth Naval Base for the 28-week deployment in May.
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Israel -

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who was set to arrive in Israel on Sunday, has postponed his trip. He is reported to have cancelled his entire trip to the Middle East. It would have been Lavrov’s first visit to Jerusalem since 2018.

OBSERVATION - Cancellation of a trip like this is not a good sign for peace in the Ukraine. A textbook red flag.
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Iran -

According to Channel 13 in Israel, the U.S. has agreed to hold joint training sessions with Israel for strikes against Iran nuclear facilities. The U.S. is also reportedly giving Iran one final week to see where negotiations go.
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Lebanon -

Multiple explosions have occurred in the Al-Burj Shemali refugee camp near Tyre, Lebanon. The explosions occurred in a training facility that is also used for the manufacturing and storage of ammunition, of Hamas’ Lebanon branch. Additional reports suggest the weapons cache located behind the Mosque belongs to Hamas. Hamas is trying to claim that the site housed oxygen cylinders used to treat coronavirus patients, and that combined with a fire they caused the explosion.

OBSERVATION - Hamas is intruding into Hezbollah territory in order to set up its own second front against israel. This was observed during this year’s conflict with Israel. Hezbollah knows full well what Hamas is doing but I’m not sure they condone it as triggering Israeli strikes in Lebanon from a potential Hamas attack would seriously upset their plans and likely have their munitions sites targeted by counter strikes. Hiding in civilian areas or refugee camps is a common method both groups have employed to limit Israeli attacks, however, with Israel’s more modern targeting methods, collateral damage and deaths are not the issue any more. Example being the precision strikes in Gaza during the recent war. BTW, Twitter videos of the follow-on secondary explosions are pretty spectacular.
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760 posted on 12/11/2021 6:58:38 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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