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To: cuban leaf

You, sir, are correct. The death count is what matters, but you didn’t drill down into the important detail.

1) The national daily death count is stabilizing at what appears to be about 500 deaths per day, and that is a result we get with all the social distancing stuff. The absurd spike from NYC was the source of decline. 500 looks like the number we’ll see long term with the various measures in place.

2) It’s very hard to get that 500 number computed. Counties shut down on weekends and try to catch up later. So there is all sorts of variance.

3) 2 million people over age 65 die of all causes in the US and that’s pre virus.

4) Essentially all of the 500 virus deaths per day are 65+.

5) So this virus, somewhat long term, with masks and distancing, can be expected to add (500 X 365 = ) 180K virus deaths/year out of 2 million pre virus. Our society will have to endure 9% increase in oldster deaths per year because of a new disease — and that’s with the measures now in place.

6) Old people won’t be able to spend their lifetime savings. This is a permanent slam to the economy unless we get a cure.


4 posted on 07/01/2020 9:19:57 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

Item 3) is per year.


5 posted on 07/01/2020 9:24:16 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

We are in agreement. I was just being brief. ;)

However, you missed one too: How many are REALLY CV19 deaths? :)


6 posted on 07/01/2020 9:27:35 AM PDT by cuban leaf (The political war playing out in every country now: Globalists vs Nationalists)
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To: Owen

You are assuming all these deaths are new and ignore the fact that many of these people were probably about to meet a Grim Reaper in the near future. How many were taken by the Covid Reaper instead of the Cancer Reaper or Heart disease Reaper? Covid may have accelerated their demise, the deaths do not contribute to the total death count 1 for 1. See the numbers below—it would be easy to imagine the covid death numbers being stolen from the other causes.

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:(2017)
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

What makes you think the virus won’t go away by itself?


11 posted on 07/01/2020 10:18:07 AM PDT by dgbrown
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