Posted on 04/02/2019 5:44:31 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
Moreover, it was a baseline result. 52-48. The candidate really was terrible (an Indian who outsources jobs doesn’t work well in Pennsylvania) and he lost by the exact same margin that he lost in 2012, 52-48.
This is an ancestrally Democrat District. The aberration was the great GOP candidate (Navy Seal) who won in 2015, who is now sitting in the US House.
It’s never really a good idea to run a candidate that has already been rejected in the district, especially an Indian guy who doesn’t even have a first name.
SO, will you come on this thread and admit that you were wrong about Wisconsin?
I will WHEN the other side concede...so far I hear a recount is in order!! We’ll see..the rats smell blood by the margin they lost by! Watch for the reappearing of magical lost ballots! Yes, if he wins I’ll admit, I’m not CNN!! OBTW Is the PA republican who lost by under 3,000 gonna ask for a recount? Haven’t heard anything! Typical!
Raja is slimy... his company is slimy..
However, the real problem is, the same thing with the last special election here... The GOP has NO FLIPPING CLUE how to message in the upper midwest.
They think they can run a campaign here like they can in Alabama.. and it doesn’t matter who the candidate is they will LOSE.
Trump showed the GOP HOW to win here, and the GOP has ignored it ALL.... They are running the same messaging they have run for 20+ years (except for Trump) and winding up with the same results.
You can’t run a campaign in PA, MI, and WI like you do in TX or AL... it won’t work.
You can’t simply say “THE OTHER PERSON IS (insert your scare tactic/one issue vote topic here” and expect that is going to get you a win.. IT WON’T.
To win here you better damned well give those multi generational Democrats a REASON to vote for you, and simply attacking the other person is a FAIL... ALWAYS WILL BE.
You can certainly attack the other person, but if you don’t give voters, particular multi generational democratic voters, a reason to vote FOR you as a Republican, they will simply stay home!
The GOP was out EARLY in this race, and spent TONS... they had the airwaves virtually to themselves until the last few weeks, and still they LOST and lost solidly.... It wasn’t from lack of trying, and it wasn’t from simply the fact Raja is a poor candidate.... It is the same reason they lost PA 18... and barely held OH 12... two districts that they should have handily won by 5 without even trying.....
Simply put they think that the failed messaging that hasn’t worked fo r20 years up here, but sells like hotcakes in deeb red districts, will somehow work this time... Its beyond stupid.
This entire campaign, even though the GOP clearly outspent the Dems, by vast sums, and had the airwaves virtually unopposed for months, still didn’t even make it close, was because it didn’t learn ANYTHING from Trump showing them how to win here.. not a damned thing. There is no difference between the GOP messaging now than there was in 2014, or 2012, or 2010, or 2008 or 2006 or 2004 or 2002 or 2000 ...
Yet they expect a different outcome!
Here’s the reality, the Dems have gone loco, there are tons of multi generational democrats, who are YEARNING to vote for someone that they believe in... but they aren’t going to simply come vote R just because you bad mouth the D... You HAVE to give them a reason to vote FOR you... a REASON to cross over that divide.. They largely are disengaged... they are D on paper only... haven’t voted (other than for Trump and local elections) in a long long time... They completely disengaged rather than vote GOP.. because honestly and frankly the GOP NEVER give them a reason to vote for them....
Trump did, but since then the GOP keeps pretending that 2016 did not happen, and refuses to understand.. .and keep losing here...
Trump will win this region again in 2020 handily... but the GOP? They need to WAKE UP....
See 45... yes Raja was a poor candidate, but the GOP keeps losing here because it can’t figure out what Trump innately knew... YOU DON’T WIN IN THE RUST BELT WITH MESSAGING THAT WORKS IN THE BIBLE BELT.....
GOP is stupid... flat out stupid, when it comes to how to campaign here.. Trump gave them a rule book to win, showed them how to win, and they keep pretending 2016 did not happen and keep losing...
Stupid.
Republicans still hold 26 to 21 advantage.
When is she up for re-election?
Did you see the Wisconsin results last night? Hagedorn was a social Conservative Christian. He won.
Comparing the two races is a bit comical.
One is a statewide race, the other is a state senate race.
Two the WI ground game of the GOP is light years ahead of ANYTHING else in the rust belt, thanks the to the democrats recall attempts etc. no other state up here has remotely the infrastructure that WI has.
The ads alone, though, show the very thing I am talking about! MESSAGING!
Show me one ad in this PA Senate Race by the GOP that was “this is what I will do for you” ad... just one.... They WI race was not simply ad after ad after ad of my opponent is evil... In fact in the GOP race, the Dem never really attacked the R... most of her ads were simply I am so and so, and this is my resume....
The GOP flooded the airwaves and mailers and texts with the same old tired “the other person is too liberal” and that’s it...
The WI race was not this way, I am sure it had some negative ads, but it wasn’t purely a message of the other guy is evil...
That’s LITERALLY the entire message that was offered.. almost 100% of all ads.. that was it... Just like PA18 and OH12 before...
The GOP headed into a buzzsaw in the midterms in district elections for this every reason across the upper midwest, that and the fact they didn’t even bother to take the field for any Senate Races.
You DON’T WIN UP HERE, acting like its a deep red district and simply throwing red meat to your base will keep the dogs at bay... you HAVE to reach out beyond that and GIVE folks a reason to vote FOR you... The Rust Belt should have realigned more than a DECADE ago, but the GOP was too stupid honestly to do it... Trump in 2016 handed them a ROADMAP to finish realigning the rust belt for a generation or more... and the GOP refuses to admit any of it works... and keeps trudging along like nothing changed.
When you are a deep red area, yes, all you need to do is rile up your base to win... because your base outnumbers the rest.. in places like the Rust Belt, you can’t win that way... because you don’t have a registration advantage... Your entire base and show up and you’ll still LOSE.. you need to reach out beyond it and the GOP has shown for 30 years now, they HAVE NO IDEA HOW TO DO THAT UP HERE!
Raja was a turd no doubt, as was Saccone... but Saccone should have still won, even as a bad candidate handily.. instead he lost and deservedly so... OH 12, should have never been close.. .same thing.. HORRIBLE MESSAGING by folks who just don’t understand the electorate here at ALL!
Honestly I have never seen so much spending on a state senate race in my 30+ years of living here.. But it was ALL the wrong message... even with a GREAT candidate, that messaging would have lost them the race...
YOU NEED TO GIVE PEOPLE A REASON TO VOTE FOR YOU... and the GOP doesn’t.... saying the other guy is evil as your full strategy is basically the express to loser-ville.
What is an example of a good message Raja could have sent? You are obviously very passionate about it, but you speak in generalities.
Simply put, the GOP has no idea how to sell or message themselves up here.... NONE.
Here, compare these 2 ads, and keep in mid this one ad is the ONLY ad throughout the entire campaign Raja ran that wasn’t simply Lovino is too liberal/or pro abortion, or whatever.... This was it, and it didn’t run much at all:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=29&v=gmT26NC30FU
Contrast this with the Lovino Ad:
http://www.politicspa.com/sd37-iovino-raja-open-with-positive-biographical-ads/90397/
Now, which do you thing is better?
Now, that Lovino ad, or a derivative of it, is the only tv spots the Lovino campaign ever aired, in fact, much of the campaign was completely dominated by Raja ads... But they weren’t that one above... that one ran early on, but not much after... the bulk for the campaign run by Raja were ads like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4h6xrf_KPY
Now don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with an attack ad, but if that’s all you got, you will lose.
The reality here in the upper midwest is that D’s have a huge registration advantage, largely tied to ancestral labor stands... Not that they are coastal whackadoos.... Many of them are multi generational D’s.. meaning they are simply D because that’s what you are... their parents or grandparents worked in industries long gone... were union members etc.. They aren’t left wing nutters, but they are NOT going to simply vote R because you call some D names....
Many have simply DISENGAGED.... they don’t like the D’s and won’t vote R because the R’s have not given them a reason to.. so they simply disengage.....
Trump, with his clear stand on immigration and trade GAVE THEM A REASON TO ENGAGE AND CROSS OVER... Since then, the GOP hasn’t given voters here a candidate or reason to... still running the same old tired messaging they ran for decades before Trump and expecting a different outcome.
Now, do not get me wrong RAJA was a bad candidate, his company is slimy, always has been... does not have a great reputation, and he’s already run and lost for this thing, so I am not remotely stating that he wasn’t a bad candidate, but messaging that is simply “The other side sucks” is NEVER going to reach out beyond your base... and in these states you NEED more than your base.
When your one and only ad to introduce yourself, doesn’t even have YOU in it, or YOU talking to the voter about anything interest... What do you expect??
When did you ever give anyone a REASON to vote for you???? A reason to break with the multigenerational tradition and pull the lever for the GOP???
NOTHING.. NOT A DAMN THING.
Raja clearly had FAR more money spent than Lovino, and they had more activity than I have ever seen for a State Senate race... but it was all WRONG on message, so unlike the midterms where the GOP didn’t even take the field up here... this time they outspent, clearly had far more airtime etc... and it was all horribly WRONG messaging, let alone a bad candidate.
If every ad you run is simply the other person is too liberal, or to extreme, or too whatever... you lose... and that was the overwhelming majority of the messaging.. That dog won’t hunt.
You can run red meat, but you need to OFFER a message, a REASON.. and the GOP just doesn’t here... its stupid.
When you have a 2-1 registration advantage like you do in the south, then yes you can run nonstop attack ads and red meat for your base, and beat back any challenge... Up here YOU CANNOT DO THAT.
If your message isn’t offering voters a REASON to vote for you, as a republican, you will lose in all but the deep red districts.
Trump got it...the rest of the GOP ecosphere hasn’t.
Maybe Raja's attack ad on late term abortion bombed because voters there are pro-choice or split on the issue? And there were more pictures of other libs in the attack ad than there were of Raja's opponents.
Here in Texas, I don't think attack ads work all that well, either. at least not the ones that are made like Raja's. Also, why was he the candidate? Did he run unopposed among Republicans?
The first ad wasn’t a bad ad, but it wasn’t a great ad either, on merits, the Dem ad wins it heads down between the two, not even close. However, the larger issue is the first ad played a few times Very early and that was it... from that point on it was just attack attack attack.. never a REASON to vote for them.. never a vision, never something for people (particularly people who aren’t already part of your choir) to care about you at all...
Like is stated the Iovino ad, literally that was the ONLY ad style I recall seeing from her the entire campaign... It was that ad directly, or some derivative thereof... she didn’t have nearly the airtime as Raja had, or money so his ads up until the last maybe 2-3 weeks were really the only ads out there and they were all negative... She just ran here’s who I am and my resume ad...
And guess what, when your opponent is simply running “the other person is the devil” ads, that’s all you need to run to win, especially when you have a registration advantage. Hillary LOST because that was her entire campaign... Trump is the AntiChrist....
Trump WON because he gave people a REASON to vote for him..
As to Raja being the candidate, lets just say the GOP in PA has lots of issues.... Outside of Philly and Harrisburg and Pittsburgh they win usually handily more often than not... they don’t have to recruit great candidates... so the pipeline around the major cities is pretty sad... A lot of not ready for prime time players. The whole PA-18 last year happened because a pretty slimy guy himself named Murphy, but who had the district locked, got caught having an affair, and the woman thought she was pregnant, and him encouraging her to have an abortion... even though he was the standard Pro Life cookie cutter GOP guy...
Then what did they put up? Saccone... a not ready for prime time player who literally ran around saying “I was Trump before Trump”.... even though he’d been in politics for years and never advocated for any of the positions that gave Trump this region... Reality is the state by and large is go along to get along... GOP control the state house and senate, Governorship flips back and forth, and everyone scratches everyones back.....
We have the highest gas tax in the country and highest per mile turnpike as well thanks to the GOP... they controlled the house through both of those things.. and others...
Harrisburg is like DC pre trump, just on a smaller scale.
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