Posted on 11/05/2018 7:23:40 AM PST by LS
Many of you are very good at breaking down poll internals.
Today President Trump is at 51% on Rasmussen, which as I understand it is a "rolling" three day average poll. If this is correct, can anyone tell me, is it possible we are headed toward a 52% day for President Trump tomorrow?
DJT with a higher approval rating than obama at the same time period...?
Yes. But that wasn’t the question.
Maybe. Rasmussen though buries some key data behind a paywall subscription.
That’s why I asked. Some Freepers have that subscription.
Later this week after the big Republican midterm wins, Trump will inch up to the mid 50’s. The dems will be psycotic than normal. They will be searching high and very low for a candidate that can take on Trump.
.
If it’s a rolling three-day average, I would conjecture that tomorrow’s value will likely be a linear extrapolation of the last three day’s values.
The real question is are they voting or not. Approval rating
doesn’t necessarily equate to voting. But personally I think
more Trump supporters will be voting than not voting so it
should result in positive numbers for the GOP.
It is very hard to read the congressional races. Pa. & NJ have several close races in pretty Blue areas. They don’t have good candidates but that doesn’t matter to the Dems. Menendez is so corrupt they will never take him out. They bagged the prosecution because he will “drop the dime”.
Senate will be solid PLUS R’s. Fla. is a concern because of the media portrayal and polls. Can’t understand why people could elect Gillum! The rest will play out as directed. Trump is crushing the DS & Dems. The same scenario as 2016. No one will say it but they are in Trump’s corner. curious as to your current thoughts.
How are polls actually conducted? Cold calls? Membership? email? At the registration office? By mail? Internet polls?
Do you lie, answer truthfully or refuse to say?
There might very well be some foolish accounting taking place caused by jokers and non serious respondents.
Thoughts?
See Hugh Hewitt twitter post for some encouragement and breakdown-he had Michael Barone on who breaks down te numbers and Hewitt who is optimistic is doing a good job trying to get out GOP vote..
Also has a contest to guess the election outcome and closest to actual gets to take over his show for a day
https://twitter.com/hughhewitt?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
More
If you had offered @SenateGOP/@HouseGOP this set of polling data as hypothetical “last poll of the cycle” in Jan, they’d have grabbed it. Add wind at the back from Friday’s amazing jobs report and still resonant #JusticeKavanugh effect, about as good as reasonably could be hoped
If they took a large and diverse enough sample the polling could be of value. The way they do it is not..small samples, push polling, focused on one party etc.
When he rises in the polls they will still claim he is down in popularity and will quote their own bogus twisted polls for effect. They will challenge and discredit his positive results, as usual.
Small samples to spare the cost and calculus.
Are the respondents asked:
Are you a citizen?
Are you registered?
Party affiliation?
Income range?
Ethnicity?
sex?
Marital status?
Age?
Do you always vote?
just a few questions to establish the likelihood of voting.
What are you trying to do, find out the truth? C'mon.
“img src=’https://i.imgur.com/8VqX2nP.jpg';>
My hope citizens in non-targeted states like ILLINOIS will oust incumbent Democrats. A congressman is a congressman. It’s the total number at the end of the day that matters.
In the last election I voted early at our county elections office. It took two clerks to rustle up the right forms and find the security envelope.
This year I voted early again and the place was packed. They had two tables set up in the lobby which was standing room only and six curtained temporary voting booths.
I asked the officer how they knew this was coming and he said that when the early voting began last week it was an immediate rush and they did all this stuff as an adjustment along the way.
I'm in Northern Idaho where we expect a conservative tilt anyway, but I think the eagerness to be heard is a good sign.
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