Posted on 08/14/2018 6:40:53 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
(14) Easy Dem wins: CA-Feinstein, CT-Murphy, DE-Carper, HI-Hirono, ME-King (I), MD-Cardin, MA-Warren (Fauxcahontas), MN1-Klobuchar, NY-Gillibrand, WA-Cantwell, VT-Sanders (I), NM-Heinrich, RI-Whitehouse and VA-Kaine (VP candidate)
(5) Easy GOP wins: MS1-Wicker, MS2-Hyde-Smith, NE-Fischer, UT-Romney (yes, of MASS), WY-Barrasso
Now for the more interesting races, and how those states voted for Trump:
(3) The close Trump win states, but likely DEM wins...
MI (Trump +0.3): Stabenow (D) currently polling at +18
PA (Trump +0.7): Casey (D) +17
WI (Trump +0.8): Baldwin (D) +15 (yet WI re-elected their other Senator, Ron Johnson (R), the Anti-Baldwin, in 2016 at +5?????... Schizophrenic State)
(1) SHOULD be in play but ain't...
OH (Trump +8): Brown (D) +13
That's 18 DEM wins to 5 for the GOP... but none change their current Party. It's still +1 GOP...
Now... here's the 12 races where the action really takes place (current GOP seat in red)...
(3) The possibly in play, but weren't expected to be...
NJ (Hillary +14): Menendez (D), was +21 in JUN, now just +2!!!
MN2 (Hillary +1.5): Smith (D) was +14 in JUN, now just +4!
TEX (Trump +9): Cruz (R) +6 (the fact that TEXAS is this close gets Dems excited... but that 9% = 813,000 votes to overcome)
(6) The WTH????? How are these even close??? How are these DEM seats???
IN (Trump +19): Donnelly (D) tossup trending GOP?
MO (Trump +19): McCaskill (D) tossup trending GOP?
MT (Trump +21): Tester (D) +3
TN (Trump +26): (open) tossup trending GOP?
ND (Trump +35): Heitkamp (D) tossup trending GOP?
WV (Trump +42): Manchin (D) +10
(3) And the other close races that everyone is focused on:
NV (Hillary +2): tossup (bouncing both ways)
FL (Trump +1.2): Scott (R) +3
AZ (Trump +3): Sinema (D) +4 (a new RINO or a DEM pickup... still a loss either way, really. Replacing Flake with a Trumper could have been a big win.)
Of those final 12, the GOP currently holds 4 (AZ, NV, TN, and TX). The Dems currently hold the other 8. Trump won 9 of those states. Hillary won 3 (MN, NJ, NV).
If the 7 states that went for Trump by 9+ points all go to the GOP, then the GOP will gain at least +1 in NOV, no matter what the other 5 states do. (The GOP needs about a +4 to become RINO-proof, however.)
Picking up NJ (Hillary +14) would be stunning.
Ditching Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio was my big pipe dream for NOV (Trump +8!), but that isn't looking likely.
Except the GOP are experts and stealing a defeat from the jaws of victory.
We will find out early on election night. If the republicans win NJ senate seat it could be a big night for us!
The 35 Senate seats up for grabs in NOV:
(14) Easy Dem wins: CA-Feinstein, CT-Murphy, DE-Carper, HI-Hirono, ME-King (I), MD-Cardin, MA-Warren (Fauxcahontas), MN1-Klobuchar, NY-Gillibrand, WA-Cantwell, VT-Sanders (I), NM-Heinrich, RI-Whitehouse and VA-Kaine (VP candidate)
(5) Easy GOP wins: MS1-Wicker, MS2-Hyde-Smith, NE-Fischer, UT-Romney (yes, of MASS), WY-Barrasso
Now for the more interesting races, and how those states voted for Trump:
(3) The close Trump win states, but likely DEM wins...
MI (Trump +0.3): Stabenow (D) currently polling at +18
PA (Trump +0.7): Casey (D) +17
WI (Trump +0.8): Baldwin (D) +15 (yet WI re-elected their other Senator, Ron Johnson (R), the Anti-Baldwin, in 2016 at +5?????... Schizophrenic State)
(1) SHOULD be in play but ain’t...
OH (Trump +8): Brown (D) +13
That’s 18 DEM wins to 5 for the GOP... but none change their current Party. It’s still +1 GOP...
Now... here’s the 12 races where the action really takes place (current GOP seat in red)...
(3) The possibly in play, but weren’t expected to be...
NJ (Hillary +14): Menendez (D), was +21 in JUN, now just +2!!!
MN2 (Hillary +1.5): Smith (D) was +14 in JUN, now just +4!
TEX (Trump +9): Cruz (R) +6 (the fact that TEXAS is this close gets Dems excited... but that 9% = 813,000 votes to overcome)
(6) The WTH????? How are these even close??? How are these DEM seats???
IN (Trump +19): Donnelly (D) tossup trending GOP?
MO (Trump +19): McCaskill (D) tossup trending GOP?
MT (Trump +21): Tester (D) +3
TN (Trump +26): (open) tossup trending GOP?
ND (Trump +35): Heitkamp (D) tossup trending GOP?
WV (Trump +42): Manchin (D) +10
(3) And the other close races that everyone is focused on:
NV (Hillary +2): tossup (bouncing both ways)
FL (Trump +1.2): Scott (R) +3
AZ (Trump +3): Sinema (D) +4 (a new RINO or a DEM pickup... still a loss either way, really. Replacing Flake with a Trumper could have been a big win.)
Of those final 12, the GOP currently holds 4 (AZ, NV, TN, and TX). The Dems currently hold the other 8. Trump won 9 of those states. Hillary won 3 (MN, NJ, NV).
If the 7 states that went for Trump by 9+ points all go to the GOP, then the GOP will gain at least +1 in NOV, no matter what the other 5 states do. (The GOP needs about a +4 to become RINO-proof, however.)
Picking up NJ (Hillary +14) would be stunning.
Ditching Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio was my big pipe dream for NOV (Trump +8!), but that isn’t looking likely.
And don’t forget Hillary Clinton is up by 12 points with a 95% chance of winning.
Scare yourself with fake polls if you want but that’s all they are.
Kasick could have run but didn’t because he’s a coward and just like throwing stones from a distance.
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