Posted on 08/02/2018 10:43:22 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
"We want the report to be a reality check." It certainly is.
In March The Brennan Center for Justice (BCJ) delivered some bad news to Democrats hoping to retake the House and reinstalling Babbling Nancy Pelosi as the next Speaker.
Aside from the scary news itself, the reason for the scary news should put a smile on the face of Americans concerned about the life of our nation.
Without even knowing how insanely far to the left the Democrats would have moved five months later, the BCJ report titled "Extreme Gerrymandering & the 2018 Midterm," makes it clear that the Democrats lost this election in 2010 when huge Republican victories across the country led to Republican favorable redistricting.
The report concludes that to win back the House Democrats would have to out vote Republicans by 11 points nationally.
The last time anything like that happened was in 1982 when Democrats out voted Republicans by 12 points during Ronald Reagan's first term.
When referring to the power of redistricting, the report cited Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as the “worst offenders.”
The report’s author went on to say that “..in these states the Democratic Party could increase its vote share by 10 or even 20% without gaining a single extra seat."
BTW there are six seats in these states Wrong Way Larry Sabato thinks are “toss ups.”
To make its warning still more of a “reality check” BCJ pointed out that factors like incumbency – favoring Republicans – third party voting – which for the most part will favor Republicans- shifting demographics – such as increased support for Trump among Blacks and Hispanics which favors Republicans- [primary] turnout which has favored Republicans in states like Ohio and Texas and "scandalous behavior" claims which have not touched Trump in the least – Rasmussen now has him at 50% approval.
The BCJ really doesn’t see a way for Democrats to retake the House.
Currently the average lead for Democrats in available generic surveys, shows a 5% lead for Democrats.
They are:
Morning Consult Democrats +3 July 23
The Economist Democrats +4 July 31
Rasmussen Democrats +6 July 26
Harvard Harris Democrats +7 July 25, This is interesting since they also reported that 69% approved of the economy and 68% think their own economic situation has improved.
Reuters IPSOS Democrats +5 July 24
Besides being less than half of what the Democrats need to win, 5% is not a winning number. In 2016 while running with Hillary Clinton, the Democrats held a 6-point lead but gained just 12 seats. But of course, this was before the country witnessed the power of Donald Trump’s coattails.
Since March the Democrats have developed no coherent message or given anyone but the most disaffected leftists any reason to vote for them.
Since March the Republican National Committee collected a record $213 million and opened 27 state headquarters staffed by 500 paid workers assisted by 15,000 volunteers.
That is already three times the number of field volunteers Trump won with in 2016.
When Trump asks for volunteers the doors will blow the doors off Republican campaign headquarters across the country.
John brennan jump on the foundation bandwagon?
I am not familiar with the Brennan Center, but it is associated with the New York University School of Law and is named for Justice Brennan, not for the former CIA Director.
I guessed that, based on geography (Manhattan, NY), academic affiliation, and reverence for Justice Brennan this crowd is not a bunch of conservatives. Therefore, this report is not good news for the Democrats, and runs 180 degrees out from the conventional wisdom that drips from the mainstream media. I’m inclined to put more credibility on this report rather than the silly stuff that I’ve seen on CNN, RealClearPolitics, and Drudge. Stock up on Blue Wave T-shirts, they might become collector’s items.
No this is William Brennan who was put on the Supreme Court by by Eisenhower who called him the biggest mistake of his presidency. The Brennan Center for Justice is housed in Princeton so believe me it killed therm to write this report and that is why they released it way back in March. I keep track of these things.
Oops I should not have said Princeton - thinking of too many reports.
Brennan, now dead Supreme Court Justice
Since March the Democrats have developed no coherent message or given anyone but the most disaffected leftists any reason to vote for them. Since March the Republican National Committee collected a record $213 million and opened 27 state headquarters staffed by 500 paid workers assisted by 15,000 volunteers. That is already three times the number of field volunteers Trump won with in 2016.
Thanks jmaroneps37. Hell of a nice 'vanity'.
Here’s more
ggregate Midterms Dem +4.7 and declining, this is not good news for Pelosi
•JUL. 29-31 YouGov
Democrat +4
•JUL. 26-30 Ipsos
Democrat +3
•JUL. 26-30 Morning Consult
Democrat
If you think I am using this space like a larger twitter you would be right :-)
I just want to get the good news that is being smothered out to all my Freeper Friends
thanx for setting my straight on which brennan
seems like every crooked pol is setting up his own foundation these days: hildabeast, huma, the bern, no name.
The “national” vote tallies mean zip, zero, nada when it comes to house races.
Some districts have a larger population than some other districts, as is true not just across the nation but within any state. A district in a dense urban area can contain far more people than a district in a very much less densely populated part of the same state.
So winning “big” in some “large populated” districts may tally to a certain “big” “nation vote tally” but if - regardless of that - you capture fewer districts, your national tally will not produce a representation victory eqaual in percentage to your “national” vote.
We have a constitutional republic, not a “democracy”, and it is intentionally broken up, jurisdictionally, to try to preserve its republican nature and not slide, downhill, into a “democracy”.
“The “national” vote tallies mean zip, zero, nada when it comes to house races.
Some districts have a larger population than some other districts, as is true not just across the nation but within any state. A district in a dense urban area can contain far more people than a district in a very much less densely populated part of the same state.
So winning “big” in some “large populated” districts may tally to a certain “big” “nation vote tally” but if - regardless of that - you capture fewer districts, your national tally will not produce a representation victory eqaual in percentage to your “national” vote.
We have a constitutional republic, not a “democracy”, and it is intentionally broken up, jurisdictionally, to try to preserve its republican nature and not slide, downhill, into a “democracy”.
Thanks for pointing this out I thought it was good news but thanks to your keen observation I’ll join you in hiding under my covers worrying about what to worry about. BTW I guess the math escapes you but this report is saying that in order to win enough seats way down at the bottom where the two sides will actually fight the Democrats must have a huge turn out that out votes the Republicans by 11 points across the board.
It’s called a wave election.
“have a huge turn out that out votes the Republicans by 11 points across the board”
But again, “across the board” does not change individual districts necessarily. They can have a higher turnout by 11% “accross the board” and still only secure mostly the big urban districts they already hold, and not get a net gain in total districts they hold.
Thank God!
bwahaha ping!
This is very interesting.
Do you have a linkable source so this can be sent out?
I’ll be surprised if the dirty dems get any gain at all!They have given no one but their hard base any reason to vote for them.Their only hope is voter fraud.
DITTOS!!! 🖨️ Wouldja like to teach the ancient unknown art of journalism?!
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