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What does the future hold for the automobile?
The Orange County Register ^ | October 14, 2017 | Joel Kotkin

Posted on 10/15/2017 6:12:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

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To: InterceptPoint

bbb


21 posted on 10/15/2017 7:04:47 PM PDT by thinden
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To: marktwain

Actually less reasons to own cars than you may think. Think of it this way, a fleet of cars is distributed in the community, you pull out your phone and one comes over and you get in...ride to the supermarket. You come out, ping!, a car comes, maybe one of the handful parked at the supermarket, and you get your ride back. When it it seems the density of cars is low relative to what’s needed, some of the empty cars move in and fill the void. For longer trips, you also select the type of car you want.

The average car is moving roughly 1 hour per day (average)...with the above, that can increase to maybe 10 hours...so much, much, less cars needed and associated real estate requirements.

I cut my teeth working on cars, and I will miss the ownership society very much...also taught my kids skills that are next to impossible to learn elsewhere - but I think those days are numbered.


22 posted on 10/15/2017 7:18:54 PM PDT by BobL
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To: Daniel Ramsey
What is needed on a mass assembly scale but nithing as big as the big manufacturers is a simple vehicle, minimal electronic devices, essentially none, not even a radio. Diesel is primary engine, again simple like a forklift engine.

With new regs REQUIRING traction control and ABS, etc on new cars, that ain't happening. You'll want to get a 1965 Diesel pickup and restore/customize it. An old gasoline car with points will probably also meet the standard.
23 posted on 10/15/2017 7:34:43 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
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To: marktwain

Can you explain Uber? How is Uber different from calling a cab? Isn’t the only difference that you use an app on a cellular phone to call a ride from Uber, as opposed to calling a cab on a telephone?


24 posted on 10/15/2017 7:42:35 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Dilbert San Diego
Can you explain Uber? How is Uber different from calling a cab? Isn’t the only difference that you use an app on a cellular phone to call a ride from Uber, as opposed to calling a cab on a telephone?

Uber does not own any cars.

That is a huge difference. Uber uses the existing fleet of privately owned cars, thus it needs no capital invested in cars.

25 posted on 10/15/2017 7:46:26 PM PDT by marktwain (President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
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To: BobL
People also won’t be owning their their cars, for the most part. Think of Uber...but driverless

That's not going to happen for the simple reason that the services that provide the on-demand robocars will never have enough vehicles available to meet peak demand situations. Once people start to have to wait hours for their ride, owning their own vehicle starts to look better and better.

26 posted on 10/15/2017 7:46:50 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (Hillary: Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass GO. Do not collect 2 billion dollars.)
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To: BobL

Will Uber show up in a F-250 to pull my boat to the lake?


27 posted on 10/15/2017 7:49:30 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Fresh Wind

I would expect that issue to be covered during the phase-in...other than something like an evacuation, even during peak times, only a relative small share of vehicles are moving at once.

...but yes, dealing with evacuations would get sporty if the number of cars are reduced by 90%. But then, generally, people are too complacent to worry about those ‘details’ until it’s too late.


28 posted on 10/15/2017 7:54:27 PM PDT by BobL
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To: central_va

“Will Uber show up in a F-250 to pull my boat to the lake?”

Probably a good job for a Teamster (LOL).

An F-250 with towing capability is likely doable. You still have the fun of hitching it up. The cost per mile of the truck if it’s only needed to move a boat locally is quite high and so it would likely be much cheaper just to use one on-demand.

In any case, difficult driving jobs will likely be the last ones to transition.


29 posted on 10/15/2017 8:00:00 PM PDT by BobL
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To: BobL
No problem. The government can be trusted to take care of evacuations.


30 posted on 10/15/2017 8:07:55 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (Hillary: Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass GO. Do not collect 2 billion dollars.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

These commies can shove their “public transit” into the San Francisco Bay. The Green elites will take my pickup truck the only way they’ll get my gun: when I’m dead.


31 posted on 10/15/2017 8:33:58 PM PDT by backwoods-engineer (Trump won; we got Gorsuch and a bit of the MAGA agenda. Likely have a civil war before we get more.)
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To: BobL
People also won’t be owning their their cars, for the most part.

Oh, I guess in your glorious, totalitarian future, there isn't any need for us rubes out in the rural hinterlands who actually grow the food in your cities. You'll get my pickup truck when you kill me, and not before.

I'm actually glad my years on this Earth are limited. I don't want to be around when the communists take over my beautiful free state.

32 posted on 10/15/2017 8:43:49 PM PDT by backwoods-engineer (Trump won; we got Gorsuch and a bit of the MAGA agenda. Likely have a civil war before we get more.)
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To: BobL
Actually less reasons to own cars than you may think.

You live in one of the Democrat hive cities, don't you? Folks out here don't fall prey to such commie groupthink nonsense.

33 posted on 10/15/2017 8:45:13 PM PDT by backwoods-engineer (Trump won; we got Gorsuch and a bit of the MAGA agenda. Likely have a civil war before we get more.)
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To: Fresh Wind; BobL

Exactly. Statists like BobL would take away our freedom and hand it to the Uber Collective. Nuts to that, I say. But y’all feel free to go full commie when I’m dead. Well, OK, you’ll have my gun-toting kids to deal with, but I’m sure BobL’s government thugs will kill them too, along the road to the bright commie Final Solution of a future.


34 posted on 10/15/2017 8:47:58 PM PDT by backwoods-engineer (Trump won; we got Gorsuch and a bit of the MAGA agenda. Likely have a civil war before we get more.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Rush’s “Red Barchetta” provides a clue.


35 posted on 10/15/2017 8:56:10 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: backwoods-engineer; Fresh Wind

I did note that I don’t look forward to that future, but unless something is done to actually prevent it, that is what we’re in for.

And you’re right, I live near blue-Houston, and there is a bus stop several miles from my house.


36 posted on 10/15/2017 9:01:33 PM PDT by BobL
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To: Fresh Wind

It is possible some people will choose to allow their driver-less vehicle to be used by others in an Uber-like situation for a nominal return per mile locally when they are not using it.

Maintenance on electric cars is crazy cheap compared to gas powered cars. No engine oil, coolant, or transmission oil changes. Basically just tires and brake pads. Key bearings will need to be checked from time to time like when the brake pads and tires are changed are changed every 50k miles or so. Electronics will likely be its weak link with circuit boards easily changeable but not that cheap.


37 posted on 10/15/2017 10:00:41 PM PDT by Boomer (The dem party has become the North Korea of American politics; unreasonable, dictatorial, fascist.)
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To: BobL

Articles I’ve read say it is ongoing in several states as we speak.


38 posted on 10/15/2017 10:39:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Boomer; backwoods-engineer; BobL
It is possible some people will choose to allow their driver-less vehicle to be used by others in an Uber-like situation for a nominal return per mile locally when they are not using it.

And when that vehicle returns from its duty to the hive with vomit on the floor, the reek of a cheap cigar, or a pet "accident" on the seat?

And will this sharing be voluntary, or forced? Will you be able to "reserve" your own vehicle for a planned trip, or will the Über-puter decide that the needs of others override your needs, and give you no say in the matter?

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs."

And the word "Uber" itself. Where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah, "Deutschland Über Alles" and its echoes of the Hitler years.

You can be sure that the Über-puter will want to deal with peak load issues by the forced sharing of assets. So you might find your Über-pod making a detour, and you suddenly find your quiet pod filled with screaming kids. Or on your way home from a romantic dinner date with that special someone, you might suddenly find an obnoxious or violent drunk in the back seat.

This brave new Über-world will be the final nail in the coffin of the brick'n'mortar retail store, which is why the likes of Jeff Bezos will be pushing hard for it.

And above all, our freedom to decide for ourselves where we go, when we go, and why we go will be slipping away, lost to glowing promises of health, safety, and prosperity.

John Fogerty said it as well as anyone:

"Five year plans and New Deals, wrapped in golden chains..."

39 posted on 10/16/2017 3:06:24 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (Hillary: Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass GO. Do not collect 2 billion dollars.)
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To: buckalfa
"The gas/electric debate should be market driven, not edict driven."

I had the pleasure of attending "EVTechExpo" in Novi MI just over a month ago. What I saw makes me think it will be technology driven ( yes if the price comes down ). I think we are "this close" to an electric drivetrain revolution via the batteries getting a ton of VC money that are anywhere from 1.5 to 5X the energy density. If charging times come down to 5 to 10 minutes ( Some claim they are their ) game set match, we are then in a fully blown disruptive technology change. It could happen in the next 3 to 10 years, and I think it will be an Awe-S**t moment, the electric car will be here and no one saw it coming, it will happen that fast. I am curious as to what it will do to the financial markets, ( No dedicated Mutual Fund or ETF for EV's yet, I looked ) as I think this will happen w/in PDJT's 2 terms. I believe he is being a hard azz to China on NAFTA as they are the major battery manufacturer in the world, can't let them become number one and disrupt OH, MI, PA, IN, etc where cars and parts are made, it is not MAGA.

40 posted on 10/16/2017 3:18:24 AM PDT by taildragger (Do you hear the people singing? The Song of Angry of Men!....)
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