What Will it Take for Le Pen to Win the French Election?

IWB ^ | Mark Angelides

[davikkm]

This Sunday, the French people will go to the voting booths with a choice between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen for the Presidency of France. So far, it looks set to be a landslide for the Pro-EU Macron, but there has been some slight movement on the polls that show that it may not be all over for Le Pen.

The latest poll from Harris Interactive shows that Macron will get 61% of the final vote (leaving Le Pen on 39%), but this is almost a 6% change since April 20th. Not only that, but there are several elements that the pollsters from most companies have left out.

Firstly, a huge amount of information that has gone into these polls was added up from “poll of polls” that took place before Francois Fillon was voted out. They are using data sets that do sums based on what would happen if the Fillon vote were split among the two remaining candidates…But as the Fillon groups were mostly anti-Macron, it seems unlikely that they would evenly split their allegiance.

[petercooper]

Idiots in France to come to their senses???

[TexasFreeper2009]

never bet on the French to do the right thing.

[butlerweave]

I thought Le Pen was way ahead a few days ago

[Liz]

Paradise lost: idyllic French villages turn to far right
yahoo.com ^ | 5/3/2017 | Adam PLOWRIGHT / FR Posted by rktman

Halfway between mountains and the Mediterranean, the southern French village of Puget-Theniers is old, idyllic and a picture of the quiet rebellion under way in rural areas.

In the first round of France's presidential election, residents here, an hour's drive from the city of Nice, voted overwhelmingly to cast the country's rulers to the wolves.

Thirty-seven percent of 1,300 ballots on April 23 were for far-right leader Marine Le Pen and another 18 percent for Communist-backed firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon. A collection of other "anti-system" candidates from Trotskyists to a man who believes the European Union is a CIA-backed conspiracy won another 10 percent.

"We're fed up with our leaders favouring financial groups, insurance companies and bankers," said Leo Vellutini, a 56-year-old having an afternoon drink with locals in the pretty square at the centre of the village. He says the Le Pen vote has "spiced up our drinks together". While not everyone agrees, no one at the table has anything good to say about France's political leaders. (Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...

[davikkm]

rest:

Secondly, all major polls so far have been done online. As we know, online polls are mostly completed by people who spend longer on the computer that those who don’t (i.e. young people). And while Le Pen does have a lot of support among young voters, it is likely to be the older people in the rural towns who actually go out and vote.

Thirdly, demographics of those who were actually entered into the final polling data-set, are decided by the people who run the polls. It is not a case of 100 people asked, 100 people’s views tallied.

Fourthly, all polls to date have given a 100% total. There are likely a large amount of people who have yet decided who they will vote for (this is especially true under the French Ballotage system, as most people’s favoured candidates have been knocked out). How have these votes been proportioned?

Fifth, much like the Brexit and Trump wins, surprises do happen regardless of what poll data suggests. In the run up to Trump’s victory, it was difficult to find a single poll that gave him the win; in fact, it was considered by “polling experts” 98% likely that Clinton would win. For Brexit, it was a very similar situation.

Sixth, the “shy voter”. Despite MSM claims that this is debunked, the Shy Voter theory is still very much active…It just does not apply to those who vote for mainstream candidates. Because, I you choose to vote for the mainstream candidate, what do you have to be shy about? Who will ostracize or judge you for your choice? No one. But with more radical candidates, it is very much a reality.

But this is not to say she will win. Many people are suggesting that the World Governments and the European Union in particular will “not let it happen”. She is however, very popular despite the MSM spin. It could be a lot closer than we anticipate.

* My personal prediction is 52% to Macron.

[Benno van Archimboldi]

Getting the most votes.

[Steve Van Doorn]

said, "I thought Le Pen was way ahead a few days ago"

not according to the polls I have been reading.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

Are these the SAME polls that assured a HILLARY win????

[dragonblustar]

[central_va]

A terrorist attack in Paris before Saturday.

[SaxxonWoods]

She will do much better than expected.

She may only lose by about 10-12%.

[dsrtsage]

I hope Le Pen wins. Regardless of all the years of dropped rifle and cheese eating surrender monkey jokes, I seriously doubt there is a single person who wants watch France turn into Franceghanistan, or melt into the amorphous blob of EU controlled by unelected (very wealthy) beuracrats

[higgmeister]

"The Dreyfus Affair" from 1894 to 1906 divided France deeply and lastingly into two opposing camps: the pro-Army, mostly Catholic "anti-Dreyfusards" and the anticlerical, pro-republican Dreyfusards. It embittered French politics and encouraged radicalization.

For over a hundred years, French North Africa integrated Islamic influence into the French Republic.

Die-hard deeply embedded prejudices and intrigue could make it go either way.

A nation that murdered a generation of all of the leaders in the name of so called "brotherhood" is hard for my American mind to comprehend. When Mao Tse-tung's student leaders did it we were appalled and incredulous. What France did, the Socialists and Marxists still applaud.

[rktman]

Gonna try with a little help from her friends in Moscow? Just like last Nov here in the states.

[Tzimisce]

Be interesting if these pollsters are wrong again.

[MeganC]

Crossing my fingers for Le Pen!!!

[arthurus]

Le Pen is, for France and for Western Europe, the last chance, just as Trump is for America. If the French abjure her then France is finished along with the rest of Western Europe.

[arthurus]

I can’t believe that there is not some election chicanery occurring. I wonder about those 500k duplicate ballots mailed to overseas French, the ones judged likely to vote overwhelmingly for the Establishment candidate. Were they just for the First Round? the second round?

[Zionist Conspirator]

There are absolutely no good guys in the French elections whatsoever, wherever they fit on the spectrum (at least that I am aware of). I know that Macron is another Euroist more-of-the-same type, but Le Pen is not the shining knight so many naive FReepers want her to be. She doesn't believe in G-d, she believes in French national culture. Now while French national culture may be a good thing (at least for the French), it is not the reason the universe exists or the reason that islam is a false religion or the reason that all this "gender" stuff is nonsense. This all comes from the Highest Authority, which is above all nations and cultures.

Unfortunately, the "right" has always been so predisposed to simply pretending to be a fake Israel (each country becomes "the holy land" with its own "gxd"). It's not as bad here in America, but some people still base their positions on George Washington rather than A-mighty G-d.

These little national idolatries may feel good, especially after decades of hatred from the Left, but it will only make matters worse in the end. We need to all throw ourselves before G-d and beg for mercy. And I can guarantee that Le Pen isn't about anything like that.

She's also going to forbid Jews to wear the kippah, because (just like islam) it's "un-French" or some such.

All governments should formally recognize HaShem as G-d and bechirat Yisra'el, but I know that's an unknown concept to most people.