Ref's Projection of National Popular Vote

Political Ref ^ | 10/21/16

[TheRef]

Ref's Projection of National Popular Vote

Clinton +4.1%

Trump is closer in the battleground states, the more relevant polls, where he trails by 2.5%. Trump needs to gain 2.5% in those states or the poll error in Clinton's favor must be 2.5% to render the race a tossup. In Brexit, the average of polls had an error of 6%.

Polls that substantially diverge from the other national polls and the bellwether state polls will be weighted down. See an example. Only one poll per media organization is included. This average mixes head-to-head polls with four-way polls. Four-way polls are better because they match reality, but some head-to-head polls, like the LA Times/Daybreak (4th most accurate 2012) and UPI/CVoter (8th most accurate 2012) polls, offer reliable data. Not all head-to-head polls are useful, in fact most are not because there will be a large third-party vote this year. Often news organizations or particular shows, like the Kelly File, will report only those head-to-head numbers because they artificially inflate Hillary's lead. Perhaps because the LA Times/Daybreak and UPI/CVoter are Internet polls, this bias seems less pronounced rendering those polls worth inclusion.

Clinton +4.1%
Poll	Date	Sample	Weight Applied	MoE	Clinton	Trump
Ref's Avg	10/10-10/20	-	-	-	44.9	40.8
LA Times/Daybreak	10/14-10/20	2983LV	-	4.5	43.8	44.5
IBD/TIPP	10/15-10/20	789LV	-	3.6	40	41
Rasmussen Reports	10/18-10/20	1500LV	-	2.5	41	43
Economist/YouGov	10/15-10/18	925RV	-	3.9	42	38
Quinnipiac	10/17-10/18	1007LV	-	3.1	47	40
UPI/CVoter	10/11-10/17	1326LV	-	3.0	50.5	45.6
Fox News	10/15-10/17	912LV	-	3.0	45	39
Bloomberg	10/14-10/17	1006LV	0.5	3.1	47	38
Reuters/Ipsos	10/13-10/17	1190LV	-	3.3	42	38
Monmouth	10/14-10/16	726LV	0.5	3.6	50	38
NBC/SurveyMonkey	10/10-10/16	24804LV	-	1.0	46	40
CBS	10/12-10/16	1189LV	0.5	3.0	47	38
ABC/WaPo	10/10-10-13	740LV	-	4.0	47	43
NOTES ON THIS AVERAGE: The NBC/WSJ poll showing an 11-point Clinton lead is not included because the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll is included,which much more closely matches the bellwether states. As my rules dictate, I only include one poll from any one media organization that most closely matches the bellwether states. One can see the wisdom in that with NBC in this election cycle. The Bloomberg, Monmouth and CBS polls vary from the bellwether state polls by more than five percent and are weighted down as a result.

[LS]

Trump will win by 4-5 m votes, whatever % that works out to. I think 62m, maybe IF SHE’S LUCKY Cankles gets 55-56 with othrrs gdtting 5-6m

[bob_esb]

Thanks for the analysis.

How does the mesh with the weird polls - like DT and HT being tied GA (from the AJC)

[HamiltonJay]

Interesting, so where are you estimating the remaining 15% of the vote is going to go?

The third party players are not going to get 15% combined, I doubt they will crack 10... most likely 6-7%.

[TheRef]

Third parties or stay home.

[TheRef]

I don’t see a tie in Ohio and a tie Georgia occurring in the same year, which the polls in Ohio are showing right now. I would err on the side of the Ohio polls in terms of accuracy. Those seem like outliers, and Georgia being a tie is part of a larger MSM narrative. There’s motive to find that tie, and that’s not paranoia. MSM is really throwing out all objectivity this time, so why not with some of their own polling?

[HamiltonJay]

Again, if they stay home that doesn’t reduce the need for 100% vote... third party won’t get 15% of the vote... you are talking close to Perot 1992 numbers at that rate.. and they won’t tally that high.

Maybe can stretch them out to 10% if you are very very generous.. but realistically I expect third party votes will be in the 7ish range... that leaves 5-8% unaccounted in your numbers.

[BlueStateRightist]

After November 1 or so the polls will all start to converge on one message — the truth. Nothing can be interpreted before then, as agendas are still playing a role. Ultimately, all polling outfits, including the RCP average, for posterity, care how close they come to the real story.

[Future Useless Eater]

Sorry, but I still scream B.S. Because most of the referenced polls use D+6 or worse, and Female+6 or worse within their “Likely Voter” subsets.

But all detailed internals show that Republicans are more enthused at this time and turnout will be R+1. Similarly for females, especially females that voted for Obama, Those are the least enthused of all. So right now, “”Likely Voters” should be shown with Female+1, and NOT greater than that.

Do that for virtually any poll out there and Trump is ahead, or a LOT ahead.

[longtermmemmory]

this is why the DNC conducts absentee ballot harvesting.

The DNC does not need participation or “signatures”.

By faking collection and having enough people double, triple and quadruple vote, the Democrat Party can replace the stay at home voters.

The nursing home, assisted living facility voters are just extra fraud padding.

AND

The Republican party is not visibly preventing anything.

[CatOwner]

6-7% for 3rd party candidates (cumulative) is probably double what it will likely end up. I have been saying 3.5% is the top end for 3rd party candidates in this election, and I am sticking to that.

[Gay State Conservative]

Of course Trump's gonna lose CA by 20...MA by 30...VT by 40....and DC by 90.But if he wins OH,NC,NV,IA and FL by 0.3 he's in.

Winning the popular vote would be nice....but far from essential.

[Gay State Conservative]

During the Brexit campaign 95% of the nation's elite....of ALL parties...urged Remain.In fact Leave supporters were being painted in the same way we are now.Rubes...country bumpkins...illiterates.

There can be no doubt that more than a few Trump supporters don't want to deal with the put downs so they conceal their support.

I,for example,have had two Trump bumper stickers removed from my car.Once in Brookline,MA....home of many,many,*many* rich Maoists...including Mike Dukakis himself.The other was in Greenwich,CT....one of the wealthiest residential towns on earth and home to scores of Ferraris sporting Bernie bumper stickers.My car was keyed in Greenwich on the same day (I was parked at the commuter rail station for the day).Don't know if it was the same person who took the bumper sticker.

[PIF]

With the million of dead, more millions of illegals, followed by millions of felons, and 2.5 million irregular voters - DJT will need an additional 10 million to be even close.

The election is rigged and anything DJT does will be countered by more illegal votes, lost ballot boxes and so on, until there is no way he can win either the popular of electoral vote.

[TheRef]

I see. If you take 41 Trump 45 Hillary and 7 for third parties, rest stay home, and apply it to 100% scale: that breaks out to 44.1 Trump, 48.3 Clinton, 7.5 third parties.

[TheRef]

Agreed. Even the lefty Nate Silver agreed that Trump could easily win the electoral college and lose the popular vote. See here, http://politicalref.com/permalink/16—09-16_silver_hedging_his_bet.php

[LS]

Then you might as well leave the country cuz on your mond all is lost.

Wow.

[TheRef]

I think Jill Stein’s 2% is pretty hard, and Johnson should get half of the 10 he is getting in a lot of polls. I think 7 is about right. I don’t recall this much third party talk since 92. It’s the personal disgust people hold for the tops of the tickets that’s driving this, it’s not rational. I see it anecdotally, some people just despise Trump and Clinton viscerally, they’ll vote for “what’s Aleppo” despite horrific consequence for the Court.

[CatOwner]

I don’t see either doing better than Nadar in 2000, who was far more known and more popular than Johnson and Stein are now, combined. Nadar received 2.74% of the vote in 2000, and 3.75% in total voted 3rd party. We haven’t come close to those percentages since.

[HamiltonJay]

See that’s where you lose me. I do agree Hillary has a functional max of about 42/43%... Her only way to win is to keep Trump under that number. I just don’t see her being able to do that. I see no way Hillary gets upper 40’s on Election Day... I think if she puts 60M voted in the box, she’s very lucky indeed.

Time will tell.