Posted on 10/05/2016 2:31:08 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell
Some say there is a bit of daylight between Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence on Syria and relations with Russia.
I would not be surprised, these are complex issues and getting these two files right will be a big (and urgent) challenge for the next president.
Hoping that is Donald Trump, I was wondering what you thought would be America's best policy from 2017 onward with regard to the conflict in Syria and relations with Putin's Russia. These are of course inter-related.
My proposal would be this:
(1) Seek to create the best possible relationships between the U.S. (and NATO allies) with Putin's Russia. We face similar challenges and a global enemy (militant Islam). We would waste a lot of energy rattling sabers at each other, and it's unnecessarily dangerous.
(2) Hammer out an agreement with Russia on how to proceed in Syria. I believe we are stuck with the Assad government for the next five or ten years. It was never quite as bad as portrayed but in any case was (before the civil war) a more stable alternative than many others, not overly hostile to Israel, and by regional standards very tolerant of religious minorities.
America and NATO have been on the wrong path for the past eight years in trying to fan flames of popular revolt through the Middle East. This led to the overthrow of non-hostile governments that, while repressive by our standards, have turned out to be far better than what replaced them. Egypt had to do a reset back to the pre-Arab-spring situation and it has saved them from a death spiral.
I believe it is fairly obvious that the U.S. allowed the rise and spread of ISIS as part of their strategy to have Assad defeated. They probably figured that ISIS between Syria and Iraq/Iran would lessen support for Assad and give other fighting factions an ally or at least a drain on possible opposing government forces.
This was a catastrophic blunder. When hawks in Washington (some of whom seem to think Mike Pence is their guy now) talk about pushing to remove Assad and threatening Russia if they get in the way, that is absolutely the wrong policy. I suspect this may be driven in part by interests in Jerusalem. In this case, I think Israel needs to be careful what games it plays in the region, and accept that Assad, while far from ideal, is a much less risky neighbour than many who might replace him.
And to be frank, the Libyan experience tells us that trying to engineer a friendly new government in a power vacuum full of armed militants of every stripe is just a dangerous fantasy. Inevitably, the bad guys, the hard men, will win out unless there is massive support for the original hard man, Assad.
Sometimes nations have to admit errors. Putin may have his flaws and Russia is hardly a model of civil liberties and prosperity, but there again, what's the alternative? A more xenophobic nationalism? A return to Soviet communism full-bore? Weak ineffectual liberal democrats? We are better off dealing with Putin, a realist and a guy who basically shares the values of western civilization in any showdown with Islam (or also, I would suspect, China down the road).
So on points I give any debate internally to Trump, despite his lack of political experience, he is on the right page in his assessments and I hope to see good relations developing with Putin and Russia in 2017-18. And therefore I think we might as well accept that the only sane option in Syria is to put up with Assad, and stop supporting opponents of his regime. We can still put pressure on Assad (through Putin) to respect civilian safety and human rights. We have to be realistic about what to expect. But how was the past any worse than the present? It was better.
Mark Levin, daily -> Get ISIS!
Best policy.... Let assad do what he wants. The syrians have already demonstrated that if he is removed it will be worse.
Give them Obama/Hillary so they can be put on trial for starting it
Leave Assad alone, kill as ISIS as possible, mend relations with Russia.
my post #5 should have said: “kill as many ISIS as possible”
“Leave Assad alone, kill as ISIS as possible, mend relations with Russia.”
I agree with that. Kill as many ISIS as possible.
Stick with the policy Trump has expressed, ignore Pence’ advice. I wasn’t real impressed with his neocon crap last night about needing to stop the bombing in Aleppo.
That is nothing but furthering the Obama goal of removing Assad. The moron even called for a no fly zone. That can only be of assistance to the rebels and ISIS.
I like a lot about him, but him being a globalist free trader and wanting to push regime change in Syria tells me he is probably going to be to Trump, what Bush was to Reagan.
The only proper course I see in Syria is to cut off every penny to our jihadis, apologize to Assad, and bomb the living snot out of every rebel group with special emphasis on ISIS, and then leave.
It doesn’t have to be complicated...just get on the plane and depart. Gone. Sayonara. Adios.
First, make it clear that the US is under new management.
Second, geopolitical chess game aside, acknowledge that ISIS is the common threat, and it needs to be annihilated.
Third, agree to work with all parties to eliminated ISIS.
Fourth, like it or not, the Assad regime is the sovereign government in Syria, and recognize it as such. That does not mean we can engage in some friendly persuasion with Assad.
Finally, if Assad does not want us there no ands ifs or buts, we should stay out. Obama may well have irreparably burnt a bridge.
After 8 years of Obama, a worldwide apology tour is an appropriate start.
Protect Israel.
Why are we in Syria?
I pretty much agree:
(1) Russia and the United States have shared interests that are far more urgent than our differences.
(2) Assad is a genuinely bad person, but the alternative is dramatically worse. We need to stop supporting terrorists, and we need to stop sending signals that we might support a terrorist group if it was winning in Syria. We need stability in those Arab countries that are better than the alternatives.
Great posts on this thread.
Yes, we need to stop interfering in Syria, except to help erase both ISIS and Al Quaeda/ Jabhat Al-Nusrah/ Jabhat Fatah Al-Sham, also known by the Left as “the moderate Jihadists”.
If Qatar want a pipeline through Syria they must get Assad to agree. We aren’t going to be their private army anymore.
Syria:
Leave.
Cut off everyone from US weapons.
Hand over all intel on the FSA and other US proxies to Assad and the Russians.
No ‘refugees.’
Pop popcorn.
Russia
“What are your interests and how can avoid conflict?”
We also have to decide if we’re willing to go war for the Baltic states, Poland, and the Ukraine, since I am pretty sure Putin has designs on all of them.
Or we could pull out of NATO.
If possible, we should try to get Russia (and the PRC) entangled in various messy affairs abroad - let them waste their blood and treasure on the ingrates.
Build a bigger, better USN (start by getting rid of the LCS...).
Look into 4th gen warfare - esp. drone and autonomous combat vehicles.
The first thing will be to establish, religion-sensitive safe zones to return refugees to and transfer incountry refugees to - to be set up and funded by the Arab League within 60 days (i.e., don’t house Christians in with non-Christians)
The second thing will be to demand the UN charge Assad with whatever crimes they’re going to charge him with and be done with it, and bring the weight of the Arab League against his regime. Do we need Russia to lean on the Arab League? Probably not.
And somewhere in there, related, is putting pressure on the ‘new’ Libyan govt to end the flood of ‘refugees’ launching from their shores (ironically, exactly what Kadafi promised if he wasn’t allowed in the big boys club)
Syria: work with putin to enact safe zones and Christian safety. Then work to make Assad buy it. Then work to destroy any jihadist type group in Syria with putin.
Russia: abm system
As long as safe zones don’t become an excuse to carve up Syria.
I agree
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