Professor Masks Evidence, Discredits Own Election Model in Trump Victory Prediction

Free Republic ^ | 9/24/2016 | Pocono Pundit

[KavMan]

I remember this DBag Professor on BOR’s show! He was talking about what a GREAT Legacy Obama would have! I was like WTF?

Did you see how this Professor slammed TRUMP when he siad he would be POTUS??!! It was UNBELIEVABLE!

[ozzymandus]

The “expert” had to discredit his own method when he got the result he didn’t want. This often happens in academia.

[YogicCowboy]

Well done!

[poconopundit]

I hear what you're saying. And certain it appears that many of the contests were easy to pick.

However, many of them were toss ups.

By the numbers there's a one in 256 chance that a model will predict 8 elections in a row

The formula is 2⁸ = 256

Four elections in a row is not as hard at 2⁴ = 16

I wouldn't be surprised if FReepers would pick winners more readily than the public at large.

[poconopundit]

Yes, it’s a scary thought indeed.

[poconopundit]

Exactly HL27, the guy pretends to be this innocent, academic observer and does a hit job on Trump.

Hopefully when his students reads these comments, they’ll learn what a charlatan he really is.

V K, you have a good memory of this guy and his shenanigans so many years back...

[poconopundit]

Yes, the guy is in an interesting dilemma but he’s laughing all the way to the bank.

Hey I love your tag line. Very creative and makes you think. If Trump gets elected, the pitch forks can be lowered. If Hillary gets in, then black rifles will doubtless grow.

[Windflier]

“I love your tag line. Very creative and makes you think.”

Thanks. Wish I’d thought of it, but I snagged it from a comment I once saw at Conservative Treehouse. That’s a great bunch over there.

You’re right about the pitchforks being put away if Trump wins. If Hillary wins, you’ll see the biggest run on guns and ammo in American history. The people may even be forced to plead the 2nd Amendment.

[V K Lee]

LOL - it’s really saddening what is retained in memory banks when comparing memories year after year. Some are most enjoyable; others, not so much. That we of ‘a certain age’ are capable of any memory is something to celebrate :-)

[Ozark Tom]

5 & 6 are faked statistics. Currently in a depression for the bottom 95% which would be evident with soup lines and massive homeless camps if not for EBT, section 8 housing, etc.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2016/09/what-if-were-in-depression-but-dont.html

[tinyowl]

Yeah, my sense is he's uncomfortable that his model predicts Trump.

he may even LIKE Trump ... but is just covering his butt so his prediction doesn't appear as support.

It's going to be interesting to see how much the polls were off because of people lying to protect their reputations.

I bet money on Trump many weeks ago after the Hill convention when odds were still 3 and 3.5 to 1. VERY MUCH looking forward to taking all my workmates out to lunch. Will they all puke when after the meal I reveal that Trump's victory paid for it? Although many have been mocking him, how many secretly will have voted for him?

POCO thanks for the analysis ... I read the newspaper article and was a little surprised that even though he predicted victory every other sentence was 'but Trump is different, he's a total bully ahole know-nothing liar .... etc."

[poconopundit]

Yes, agree. The purpose of questions 5 and 6 is to provide an objective measure of the voters’ mood on the economy and jobs.

Now, while the those statistics may have been more relevant 30 years ago, they are certainly less a measure today.

We know clearly that the American electorate is feeling economic pain. This election is clearly a rerun of “It’s the economy, stupid.”

And with that, we can now safely say that 12 of the 13 points in the Election Prediction Model point to Trump!

* * * *

And thank you for pointing me to the fantastic and scholarly work of Charles Hugh Smith. I have great interest in his economic charts and his analysis. Much to read.

In fact, maybe FReeper spend too much energy rebutting silly stuff from the NYT, WaPo, and HuffPost. I understand why we do it. You get a chance to vent anger and make jokes.

Still, Smith’s quality economic analysis — because it’s aimed at educating the layman — is highly appropriate here and I hope we’ll see more excerpts of his work here.