Posted on 08/11/2016 6:07:22 AM PDT by DrDude
It seems Hillary can't get past 45%. A few outliers there but very oversampled. Observation of these polls and articles show Hillary with huge leads in "A Two Way Race". There is NO two way race. Hillary loses when others are included. Trump is usually level or up a hair. The Indys will determine the race. Does anyone really think Johnson is going to get 10%? PIAPS doesn't seem to move regardless and I believe that is where Trumps votes are going to come from. His rallies are huge. News has them on film so they can pick at any little point. Hillary's rallies are in the toilet. Why is no one filming these rallys? Are they banned? Does Trump think he doesn't need people taping this stuff? Recall the speech transcripts issue. There were no speeches in many cases. They just gave her money. How could there be a transcript? Any thoughts.
If they are ‘oversampling’ Dems, and all they can get is ~40-45% for Hitlery! then they must be in a real big panic................
I think it's a bit more simple
Given her lack of exercise and rich diet....I believe her BP and Cholesterol are through the roof
So probably taking Statins
The FDA came out with a warning about Statins last year
Statins can cause "bad decision making in elders"
We have been over and over the polls. I think they are way oversample D for Dems, are still using “adults” and “registered” voters which adds 2-4 points to the D.
I too believe the rallies, and the social media, are important and not to be ignored.
However, if you take all the rallies to date, say in NC, you’d probably have 100,000 people out of the several million needed to win the state. Moreover, how many of these attendees are “repeat attenders”? What the rallies show us is that unlike Cankles Trump has a very deep and loyal group of followers. What we aren’t able to see is how wide he can get the “not-so-excited” voters.
I do understand she is still ahead in a 4 way but she is the one losing points when the same polls are side by side. I have been looking at RCP for years. I don’t trust them as they specifically exclude some polls and weight others. When Trump was up after the bump they limited their polls. Didn’t post until late in the day. When a poll helps Hillary it is up first thing in the am. I also don’t like the fact they post several polls at one time when it is all for Hillary.
Agreed. I don’t think they have the capability to measure Trump. Many people won’t be polled and/or answer correctly due to pressure.
45% could be enough for her to win. Her husband won twice with less than that.
That is one of my points. She doesn’t get 45% in a 4 way race. Closer to 40%.
Her current RCP average is 48%. I'm afraid that's more than "a few outliers".
Did it ever dawn on anybody why we have at least one poll in the averaged polls that is way... so way, out of whack.
Check the Monmouth poll in the Real Clear politics averages. The entire thing is a joke. It doesn't compute. Don't average percents.
I believe that the rallies, since they turn out SOOO many people, are being viewed as a marketing tool by Trump.
Clearly, if you take 10,000 in, for example Indianapolis, and send them home with a Trump fervor, they become a talk-campaign once they get home. They affect one who affects another who affects another.
Just 3 iterations of 10,000 with each level affecting 3 gives a number of 30,000 + 90,000 + 180,000.
If extended beyond 3 levels, it can affect the entire population of Indianapolis is just a few days.
This might explain the attacks on Trump as much as anything else. The establishment wants to make it a social faux pas to mention his name positively. They need to stop those levels of a talk-campaign.
Oh, sure. And this is recruitment for the “ground game” and of course, for donations. But the images-—when you can get the drive bys to cover them-—are also very powerful. Cankles just cannot compete, even with staged scenes.
I told you my calculations, based on the primary: Trump should get at least 62.5m votes (85% of GOP primary, + each primary voter brings one person to the polls, plus 55% of indies).
I think Cankles gets about 59m, or 90% of D primary vote, + 1 person each, plus 45% of indies).
She can win with 41% and slightly less as well. I am thinking it will be: 40-40-15. The 5% will be the deciders.
Once again a close race. We have Clinton leading slightly from her own party, and a narrowing lead for Trump on independents.
The dem strategy because Hillary’s support is very low energy as Trump would say, is to paint him as crazy/unhinged and scare voters into coming out. Even the reliable black vote is suffering from severe apathy, I don’t believe they will come out and vote for Trump... I just don’t see them coming out to vote.
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