Posted on 03/21/2016 10:38:11 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
I know the pundit world is tying itself up in knots with how the GOPe is driving toward a contested convention, and/or trying to change the rules to prevent a Trump nomination.....
I personally don't think the contested convention is even possible, I don't see Cruz or Kasich or both of them combined keeping Trump from 1237, but that's just me.. to me this whole exercise comes across as political theater... I completely expect Trump to handily top 1237, and I see very little opportunity or path for anyone or anything to stop that from happening, and I also see the actions of the GOPe and others as doing nothing more than solidifying and galvenizing Trump's support even further....
So, if their end game is to stop Trump from the nomination, why are they doing it?
Why is Cruz seen as more in bed everyday with the establishment? Appointing Bush's to his finance teams, publicly announcing meetings with GOP big donors, etc etc? Blaming Trump for the actions of paid agitators?
Why is Kasich even in the race?
Why are they spending millions on ads to bash Trump that have shown ineffective in the republican primaries???
The more I see of this, the more I believe this may be a long game strategy to damage Trump for the general election and to provide cover for other republicans to say He's not our guy and try to still win. The more I see of this, the more I am convinced the folks selling the stop Trump at the convention are just selling something they know to be a lie, for an alternate motive.
At this point I do not believe there intention is to stop Trump from the nomination at all, They see the same math I do, they see the same results of attacking Trump as everyone else.. They see the more Cruz is aligned with the establishment the bigger Trump's wins generally seem to be.... So why? oh why, do they keep doing it?
I believe it is not to lead to a contested convention, I do not believe it is even to stop the Trump nomination... I believe they are playing long game, and trying to damage Trump so badly that he is destroyed before he is even the nominee in the general.
Yes, yes, the folks who disagree with this would say, Why Bother with that? Trump loses the general in polling they say.... That's why he must be stopped.... Or they might say..No, we must keep Trump off the nomination to save the party, that's all there is to it...
Yet, that not the net result of this garbage... Trump support is as strong and broad as ever in the Republican primaries... The more the establishment attacks him the more his claims of being an outsider and that the establishment doesn't care for them are perceived as true... No, these actions are completely counter productive if the end game is to lower Trumps delegate count for the nomination.
However if taken from the long game of, we have to make sure Trump can't win the white house and protect "our brand" as much as possible knowing the nomination cannot be stopped... what do we do? We destroy the man... we attack the man... we know it won't stop him from the nomination, but we can make him as unappealing as possible to those who aren't voters in our primaries.... Try to destroy him before he is even the nominee, and provide cover for the rest of the ticket to say see... he's not us.
Now, this could be giving the power that be more credit than they deserve, but I really think this is the unstated goal of all this garbage. I don't think a contested convention is remotely the end game at this point, it just makes for the excuse they can use for doing it.
Report: FBI ‘increasingly certain’ Clinton broke the law
That’s a whole other story.... Remember, an indictment is undone by a pardon... and that’s going worst case scenario that an indictment will even be handed down.
The entire game is about preventing the citizens from stopping the Cheap Labor Express.
The people pipeline is paramount.
They don’t care about winning, they care about blocking the citizens from stopping the illegal alien inundation.
Kasich is not going to get enough delegates to guarantee himself a vice presidential nomination. Trump will come extremely close to winning outright. Cruz is pretty much guaranteed the vice presidential nomination by virtue of having the second place total. He will close ranks with Trump and the rest will be history. They will be running against Biden.
I don’t see Trump getting to 1237 by the convention.
That means a 2nd ballot will be necessary.
At that time many of the previously “committed delegates” will be free to vote as they please.
I expect Cruz will be able to exceed 1237 on the 2nd ballot.
Unlikely to happen, but if Cruz and Kasich win 50% of the remaining delegates, no one has enough to win. Trump would be about 50 shy of a first ballot win. Of course, since Romney changed rule 40 last time, no one without 8 majorities count in any round of voting.
The FBI has an informant that has been granted immunity, he has files the FBI doesn’t even have and he is singing away like a songbird, he is also under guard...
When the FBI starts to grant immunity, there is an indictment coming or they wouldn’t do it, that means Grand Jury, with the information this informant has on Hillary, I would say the Grand Jury will indict...
I don’t see Cruz, or Kasich or both combined getting enough delegates to stop Trump from 1237... I really don’t see it. Math just isn’t there.
Expect to be disappointed, Larry.
Very thoughtful analysis, Jay.
The trick is this TRIGGER, this artificial hurdle known as the 1237.
The Establishment is saved from TRUMP if they can get Hillary elected. Bitterly dividing the Party against TRUMP is the first step.
HOWEVER, the first step for us voters is to address the disregard for the broad popular vote, in favor of a vote of the few, those on the floor of the Convention. Period.
The delegate thing becomes a ploy for the powerful when the artificial rule of 1237 is injected and the simple majority of delegates earned on primary day is totally disregarded.
I know it works both ways— think Gore 2000. I know it is a dilemma.
Trump has < 47% of the delegates so far. It is possible he is held under 50%, especially since some of the states remaining do not commit their delegates. It is unlikely, however.
I expect to be a Committed Cruz Delegate in Cleveland to help make this happen.
THAT is what I “expect”.
How is winning a majority of the votes an artificial rule? It has been there since the beginning of conventions. Having to win 8 majorities, on the other hand, is arbitrary and was only put in to make Romney look unanimous.
Yes, even if Trump gets his 1237 he’ll have months of damage from Cruz, the GOPe and Dems to repair. Months he could have been using to wean support and weaken Hillary.
But they’re also doing the same to Cruz.
Whoever wins the nomination is damaged by this behavior.
The immediate goal is to protect down-ticket RINOs, who are the Leaders of the Party.
Hillary now has a BIG problem no one has discussed.
Recall that presidential-era Clintons ascended into political Valhalla b/c they skilfully exploited Bill/s ability to have sex w/ younger women.
Sex-crazed Dumbocrats got vicarious sex thrills like crazy.
But that was a long time ago-—Dumbos are now wondering whether ol’ man Bill still has the stamina to get it on w/ big-boobed babes who are hot to trot.....and willing to kneel under his desk to perform lewinskys.
If the Dumbos can/t get a thrill w/ Hill/Bill...they’ll have to look elsewhere.
What is going to happen if Hillary wins? She is not well. Bill is not well. Will her vp take over or will Obama throw her over tithe FBI just before the Nationsl election?
Then your disappointment will be a surprise to you. There is no scenario, none, where Cruz gets the nomination. He may be offered the VP slot by either Trump or the GOPe candidate, if Trump can’t take it on the first ballot. Cruz won’t get it on the first, second or eighth ballot. You will be told to agree to some deal that Cruz has been told to go along with at some point. And you will vote for it, as a good little follower. Have a great time.
I know it is a dilemma, for sure.
In a race like this one, the delegates selected to the National Convention are privileged to throw the race by bargaining for an outcome that upends the state primary voter majority.
1237 is the stop gap that disregards the majority already attained and elevates instead, the majority vote at National Convention.
My thinking is that Convention should be proportional based on the popular vote of the states respective primaries.
Kasich essentially got zip in the primary and should get zip at National Convention. Those delegates at National already voted once in their own primary. Now, at Convention they get to vote a second time, right?
Cruz essentially limps in behind TRUMP to National Convention and should democratically limp IN the Convention in the same condition. After all the National delegates there, already voted in their respective states. He either won or lost. Now, at National they get to vote again to turn it into a “win”?
Balderdash.
See what I mean?
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