Skip to comments.Romney Influence...Watch Idaho
Posted on 03/08/2016 11:02:36 AM PST by Rational Thought
This should be the perfect contest to judge the influence of the Romney Campaign, and yes, it is a Campaign.
Romney took over 62% of the vote in the 2012 primary.
Idaho has a 23% Mormon population and a 22% Evangelical population.
Idaho is a closed primary.
Donald Trump has a 13 to 19 point lead in current polls.
You can’t look at polls, they’re all wrong, we’ve been told. Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio will over perform and poor old Donald will underperform.
These are the current talking points to cover GOP fraud.
Except that totally dismisses all the other factors. How bad did the Fox Moderators/Rubio gutter attacks hurt Trump in the last debate?
I would suggest that, and not Romney, is what is hurting Trump currently.
I’m Catholic, and the Pope’s comments about Trump only strengthened by support of Trump, and soured my opinion of His Holiness.
So I would imagine (hope) that Mormons and evangelicals think with their brains than just their Bibles.
It’s not as much a Romney influence as much as a Mormon Church influence. They have put out the word, Rubio is their sanctioned candidate. Idaho is approx 20% or more Mormon.
I have a theory that Reid/Romney is pushing the Mormon Church to elect Hillary.
Lets see what shakes out.
I believe it is because the field is narrowing down. People who might have voted for Fiorina, Carson or the others are now voting for the non-Trump candidates.
Romney’s pull with the Mormon community (worldwide) is exactly why he’s speaking out. The Gope knows the “reach” he can affect almost effortlessly.
Cruz should win Idaho. And Hawaii I suspect.
But only those today.
That’s what I’m betting, they put Romney out to talk to “everyone” but really in hopes it would be one of those famous “dog whistles” to Mormons in Idaho to become the first speed-bump.
That's my take.
It is interesting that southern Idaho has a large illegal immigration population and very few populated counties.
It’s not going to stop the trajectory for Trump. Trump still takes the big states here Michigan and Mississippi. Nibbling around the edges in small caucus states is not going to do it, and those caucus states are about exhausted.
That has been the pattern so far. I looked at all of the primaries and caucuses this year, and particularly in closed primaries and caucuses, Trump underperforms the polls by a significant margin. He does better in open contests where the Dems can play mischief, but even there he just barely exceeds his polling average.
Whether that trend continues is an open question. But to deny the fact that this has been the pattern up until this point is just dishonest, since the facts are there for anyone to find. It is public record.
I would tend to agree. But I think MS will be a lot closer than the polls show, especially with the MS governor and Chris McDaniel being on the Cruz team. And I think Trump will win MI, but the delegates will be split pretty evenly between Trump, Kasich and Cruz - maybe just a few delegates separating them.
Cruz is picking up anti-Trump votes. It’s not expanding his base. The moment the GOP wants to discard him those votes go away.
I thought Cruz would win both Idaho and Hawaii too, but I did hear Rubio may win Hawaii. So it is possible that Cruz only wins one. Only about 5 hours before the results start.
i have a bad feeling trump will lose in idaho and Hawaii. But hes big test is in michigan. If he wins in michigan where its an open primary that means hes crossover appeal.
mississippie should be like alabama or georgia.. but if he wins in miss but its by a 2-3 point margin.. it means these attacks have really hurt him.
Poll link? No polling on Realclear. All polls from Saturday and some from Tuesday Cruz won more votes minimum of 10 than polls showed. I am definitely watching Idaho.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.