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It's Not Politics, It's Math
The Market-Ticker ^ | June 29, 2015 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 06/29/2015 11:19:04 AM PDT by SatinDoll

No, really? (smiley face)

“The debt is not payable,” Mr. García Padilla said. “There is no other option. I would love to have an easier option. This is not politics, this is math.”

Well I'll be damned.

On the other side of the table, of course, are hedge funds that bought the debt when Puerto Rico got in trouble at a deep discount and expect 100 cents on the dollar. They're not inclined to bargain, and will now (of course) look to the government to hand them a gun to use on Padilla.

Unfortunately that doesn't change the math either.

You cannot spend more as a government than you can take in via taxes -- period. That's a fact, and while we seem to think we can here in the US when it comes to various governments all such attempts are short-term answers that must invariably lead to spending less than one takes in via taxes so as to pay the debt off.

If now, well...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: balancedbudget; debt; garciapadilla; puertorico
Okay. This, too, sounds like our future, the USA's future. We're something like $22-Trillion in debt.

I am expecting that sometime in the future Social Security will no longer be paid out. Why? Because the U.S. Treasury is bare. SS is all I have to live on, so I'm not happy with the situation at all.

Any comments?

1 posted on 06/29/2015 11:19:04 AM PDT by SatinDoll
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To: SatinDoll

Get a job.


2 posted on 06/29/2015 11:22:31 AM PDT by learner
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To: SatinDoll
On the other side of the table, of course, are hedge funds that bought the debt when Puerto Rico got in trouble at a deep discount and expect 100 cents on the dollar. They're not inclined to bargain, and will now (of course) look to the government to hand them a gun to use on Padilla.

Puerto Rico must have something of value the bond holders can use; like land, buildings, etc. - Tom

3 posted on 06/29/2015 11:27:10 AM PDT by Capt. Tom
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To: Capt. Tom
Puerto Rico must have something of value the bond holders can use; like land, buildings, etc.

Or the same valuable thing the Greeks have found.
Hey, Vlad Putin, how would you like to have a naval base here?


4 posted on 06/29/2015 11:29:26 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Capt. Tom

“Puerto Rico must have something of value the bond holders can use; like land, buildings, etc.”

MUFON says there is a secret UFO base in PR. /s


5 posted on 06/29/2015 11:33:50 AM PDT by equaviator (There's nothing like the universe to bring you down to earth.)
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To: SatinDoll

According to Denninger we were supposed to be eating our rice and beans, shooting at mobs attacking our homes and using pre-1962 US coins to barter for goods by now because of the credit derivative contract bomb that was supposed to have exploded, taking the US economy with it.


6 posted on 06/29/2015 11:44:03 AM PDT by Bloody Sam Roberts (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
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To: equaviator
MUFON says there is a secret UFO base in PR.

Haha! The morons. That's a radio telescope dish located at Arecibo.

7 posted on 06/29/2015 11:45:44 AM PDT by Bloody Sam Roberts (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
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To: SatinDoll

Pray, if you haven’t been praying already. And don’t forget to thank the Dems and GOP-e for putting you in this bind.


8 posted on 06/29/2015 11:48:54 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Cancer-free since 1988! US out of UN! UN out of US!)
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To: SatinDoll

Very little risk of your SS checks being discontinued. Very little.

The Treasury works in conjunction with the Fed Reserve. The Treasury just sells bonds to match the amount of spending of the federal government. The Fed Reserve buys up lots of bonds, as do other big buyers like China, etc. The Fed also owns the printing press for US dollars.

As long as your source of SS payments owns a printing press, your payments are assured.

There are potential threats to your SS but at this time those threats seem to be related to interest rate increase (not as long as the Fed Reserve keeps buying up Treasury’s bonds and there are legislative efforts to apply COLA’s) and loss of control over the currency’s value (in effect similar to interest rate increase). Loss of reserve currency status would make these risks more of a concern.


9 posted on 06/29/2015 11:50:37 AM PDT by iacovatx (Conservatism is the political center--it is not "right" of center)
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To: Bloody Sam Roberts
According to Denninger we were supposed to be eating our rice and beans, shooting at mobs attacking our homes and using pre-1962 US coins to barter for goods by now because of the credit derivative contract bomb that was supposed to have exploded, taking the US economy with it.

That could still happen. And rice and beans are better 'n' nuttin'.

10 posted on 06/29/2015 11:50:50 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Cancer-free since 1988! US out of UN! UN out of US!)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
And rice and beans are better 'n' nuttin'.

Yes! But all my rice 'n' beans are getting spoiled after so long because Karl got me all worked up...and stuff.

Actually, just joshin'. My stuff is all vac sealed in 5 gallon buckets and is doing just fine.

11 posted on 06/29/2015 11:56:11 AM PDT by Bloody Sam Roberts (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
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To: SatinDoll

Well I don’t expect to ever see any social security. For right now, spend less than you take in and save for the day it stops. Find alternative ways to make money or goods/services you can barter with.


12 posted on 06/29/2015 11:57:39 AM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

We have been in a depression since 2008. The government is lying and going further in debt just to keep the mobs from rioting. They are so broke they are using fake rainbows as an excuse to steal the wealth of our churches. After that they will take our guns so they can take our gold and silver.


13 posted on 06/29/2015 12:01:53 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: SatinDoll

The key difference is that the USA can print its own $$ and will be either the largest or 2nd largest economy for the foreseeable future. Of course, hyperinflation can put a crimp in our plans, but much of the rest of the world is in EXACTLY the same boat. Europe and Japan have both been spending $$ they don’t have. It’s a merry-go-round that no one knows how to get off of.


14 posted on 06/29/2015 12:26:59 PM PDT by rbg81
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To: SatinDoll

I don’t think so. The Fed will use quanatative easing to monetize the debt. Inflation will go up (but not hyperinflation). Maybe 5-10% per year. You will get Social Security, but it will buy less and less. Hopefully your housing expenses at least are fixed. Renters will have it the worst.

I think this will happen because it doesn’t require Congress to actually do anything, and therefore is the default option. Baby boomers are starting to die off, so there’s even a chance that if they can keep things cobbled together for another decade enough will die off that SS expenses will start to go down.

But maybe I’m way too optimistic.


15 posted on 06/29/2015 12:48:00 PM PDT by Hugin ("Do yourself a favor--first thing, get a firearm!",)
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To: SatinDoll

Social security was just massacred on Friday. You won’t read about it in the papers, but with the “anyone can marry anyone” decision, all sorts of follks will be getting married strategically to maximize social security and to obtain survivor benefits. The actuaries didn’t include that in their calculations.

Bankrupt in 10 years.


16 posted on 06/29/2015 1:39:34 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat ( The ballot is a suggestion box for slaves and fools.)
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