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Cigarette Smuggling Undermines Tax Revenue
Capitol Confidential ^ | 5/17/2014 | Michael LaFaive

Posted on 05/19/2014 7:20:11 PM PDT by MichCapCon

Since 2008, Mackinac Center for Public Policy analysts have periodically published estimates of cigarette smuggling in 47 of the 48 contiguous states. The numbers are quite shocking.

In 2012, more than 27 percent of all Michigan in-state consumption was smuggled. In New York, almost 57 percent of all cigarettes consumed in the state were also illicit. This has profound effects on the revenue generated by state (and sometimes local) government.

Clicking on the graphic at right brings up a chart of estimates we made for 2012. In the "smuggling rate" column a positive percentage indicates a net export state. For example, the first entry — Alabama — indicates that for every 100 packs of cigarettes consumed in the state an additional 7.7 packs are smuggled out. By contrast, the Arkansas rate of –8.05 percent tells us that just over 8 percent of all cigarettes consumed in the Razorback state are smuggled in.

The last column indicates the revenue lost or gained to state treasuries associated with smuggling. Alabama gains $9.8 million from cigarette sales smuggled to other states while Arkansas loses $17.8 million from illicit acquisition of cigarettes.

That revenue loss is tiny compared to Michigan, which lost an estimated $175.4 million to smuggling in 2012. The revenue figure may drop going forward as the state adopts digital tax stamping of cigarette packs to improve its tax enforcement regime. Two different columns in the graphic rank states by their smuggling rate and total packs smuggled. Michigan is 10th and 5th, respectively.

We estimate nationwide revenue losses due to cigarette smuggling at $5.5 billion, a statistic consistent with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives' $5 billion estimate for 2009. Some cities, like New York, also impose their own cigarette excise taxes. Their revenue losses are not part of our totals.

The losses to individual states in casual smuggling — individual smuggling for personal use — are netted out with the gains to other states experiencing the increased sales. However, this does not account for North Carolina, which is the major source state for commercial smuggling — large scale, organized, long-distance smuggling — in our statistical model.


TOPICS: Government
KEYWORDS: revenue
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1 posted on 05/19/2014 7:20:11 PM PDT by MichCapCon
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To: MichCapCon
Try lowering the tax rate. Bet you get more revenue.

But it ain't about revenue. It's about control.

2 posted on 05/19/2014 7:24:10 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the government." --Tacitus)
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To: MichCapCon

This was predicted by every economist and forward thinker from day one. Raise taxes too much and you create an underground economy. Keep taxes reasonable and the tax money flows in. Basic econ 101.


3 posted on 05/19/2014 7:25:18 PM PDT by doc1019
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

To the article...duh


4 posted on 05/19/2014 7:26:13 PM PDT by Bidimus1
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To: MichCapCon

Tax free tobacco and tax (and morals) free cat.

/johnny

5 posted on 05/19/2014 7:27:11 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: doc1019

By Far the greatest percentage of dollars paid for a pack of cigarettes goes to Taxes.

the taxers know we wont quit,....and its about the money and the CONTROL both.

Im remembering with glee when the last fifty cent a pack tax hike was added to a packof smokes. Oh those were the days


6 posted on 05/19/2014 7:27:36 PM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill)
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To: MichCapCon

Taxation = Theft


7 posted on 05/19/2014 7:28:03 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: MichCapCon

Liberal economics is pathetic. What they have no capacity to understand is that economics is natural law. You can only avoid the invisible hand for so long before it smacks you down. I mean, jeez if we just tax everything at 100% then just imagine the sweet revenues....oh wait...that means 100% of nothing????


8 posted on 05/19/2014 7:31:13 PM PDT by Phillyred
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To: MichCapCon

ROFLMAO!

Well of course it’s up. That’s what happens when the greedy geniuses in gubment tax the $#!t out of stuff people want.

Lesson for the day.

Government is stupid.

Government runs the education system in this country.

Our kids these days, with exceptions, are generally stupid.

Any questions?


9 posted on 05/19/2014 7:31:29 PM PDT by AFreeBird
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To: MeshugeMikey

Several years ago I bought a machine that allows me to roll the perfect cigarette. I buy my tobacco by the bag and boxes of tubes (filtered and in my case with menthol).

I can roll my own for about $11 a carton ... takes about 30 min. So, until the government catches on to this small bit of freedom, I’m golden.


10 posted on 05/19/2014 7:34:20 PM PDT by doc1019
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To: doc1019
When you get ready to grow your own, I've got seeds. You can freep-mail me. ;)

/johnny

11 posted on 05/19/2014 7:35:50 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: JRandomFreeper

We are talking about tobacco right? LOL!


12 posted on 05/19/2014 7:38:15 PM PDT by doc1019
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To: MichCapCon
While they are wringing their hands over all this "lost" revenue, progressives will never tell you that cigarette taxes are extremely regressive, hitting the poor hardest.

In a study conducted on behalf of the New York State Department of Health, it revealed that low-income smokers (those in households making under $30,000), spent an average of 23.6% of their annual household income on cigarettes, compared to 2.2% for smokers in households making over $60,000.[15]

Cigarette taxes in the United States

13 posted on 05/19/2014 7:39:03 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: MichCapCon
quitting nicotine isn't the hardest part. quitting "the habit" is not so bad; it is the other 4000 compounds in today's cigarette's that are the problem of quitting.
Think about that for a second, alllll the cottage industries that go *poof* overnight if liberals were to just ban cig's. They know full well they cannot but tax cigs into oblivion and create two markets and catch EVERYONE in the middle. It is a liberals wet dream.
14 posted on 05/19/2014 7:39:27 PM PDT by Ghost of SVR4 (So many are so hopelessly dependent on the government that they will fight to protect it.)
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To: doc1019

WO!! 11 bucks a carton would save me and enormous amount of money.

I now spend 200 bucks a month on cigarettes

Thirty Three Bucks a month sure beats that with $167 dollars left in my wallet!!!

I am smoking American Spirit cigarettes. I know they sell loose tobacco... so maybe i ought to look into the alternative methods.

Thank you,


15 posted on 05/19/2014 7:39:51 PM PDT by MeshugeMikey ( "Never, never, never give up". Winston Churchill)
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To: doc1019

We did that in the 60s, but hardly anyone stayed with it back then.

It is hard to beat Marlboro, or Winston when at the beach, or in windy environment, or Camel filters, or Benson and Hedges menthol when you have a cold, or Pall Mall non filters when in jail.


16 posted on 05/19/2014 7:46:33 PM PDT by ansel12 ((Ted Cruz and Mike Lee-both of whom sit on the Senate Judiciary Comm as Ginsberg's importance fades)
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To: MichCapCon

It’s actually funny, the do gooders jack up the taxes on tobacco so as to fund their liberal programs, for the children you know. Then they continue to jack up the tax rate to force people to quit and all they succeed in doing is driving the smokers to the black market and cut the revenue they were using for the children. Yeah sure that’s where the money went.


17 posted on 05/19/2014 7:47:41 PM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: Vince Ferrer

The wealthy, upper middle class and educated, have largely quit smoking.


18 posted on 05/19/2014 7:49:14 PM PDT by ansel12 ((Ted Cruz and Mike Lee-both of whom sit on the Senate Judiciary Comm as Ginsberg's importance fades)
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To: doc1019
Yep. Bright leaf burley tobacco. Got hundreds of them growing in my garden. Legal as church on Sunday.

/johnny

19 posted on 05/19/2014 7:50:52 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: MichCapCon

Why, it’s almost like there are economic laws that predict such events.


20 posted on 05/19/2014 7:51:21 PM PDT by denydenydeny (Admiration of absolute government is proportionate to the contempt one has for others.-Tocqueville)
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