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Why Can’t I Find .22 LR Ammunition?!?!?
sierrabullets.wordpress.com ^ | 4/7/2014 | Matt Reams

Posted on 04/08/2014 7:05:14 AM PDT by rktman

Even though Sierra BulletQuestionMarks does not make .22 LR ammo or projectiles, we are constantly asked “Why can’t I find any .22 LR ammo anywhere?” Even the conspiracy theorists are at a loss on this one as they can’t even blame it on the government. They toss around thoughts of warehouses full of .22 LR rotting away just to keep it out of their hands, but that does not seem very realistic – even to them.

So what is going on here? Why is it that 1.5 years later, the shelves are still empty and bricks of .22 LR can still be seen selling for upwards of $75-$100 at gun shows? I do not believe there is one answer, but rather a few. Here are my opinions on the matter, for what they are worth.

(Excerpt) Read more at sierrabullets.wordpress.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Conspiracy; Government; Hobbies
KEYWORDS: 2a; banglist; guncontrol
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Well, Sierra, how about making some 22 shells for us? LOL! Probably not cost effective for them.
1 posted on 04/08/2014 7:05:14 AM PDT by rktman
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To: rktman

Why excerpt this blog?

Full Text:

Even though Sierra BulletQuestionMarks does not make .22 LR ammo or projectiles, we are constantly asked “Why can’t I find any .22 LR ammo anywhere?” Even the conspiracy theorists are at a loss on this one as they can’t even blame it on the government. They toss around thoughts of warehouses full of .22 LR rotting away just to keep it out of their hands, but that does not seem very realistic – even to them.

So what is going on here? Why is it that 1.5 years later, the shelves are still empty and bricks of .22 LR can still be seen selling for upwards of $75-$100 at gun shows? I do not believe there is one answer, but rather a few. Here are my opinions on the matter, for what they are worth.

Hoarders – Some people are piling it away in their basements, garages, bunkers, and under their beds due to fear of not being able to find it again. This is not a huge factor in it, but it is still a factor to some degree. When these hoarders can’t find it on shelves, it only panics them more and causes them to buy even more when they do find it.

Gougers – These are the guys who prey on the fear of the hoarders. These are the guys that wait in line at Wal-Mart at 3 a.m. to buy up the daily allotment that Wal-Mart puts out at normal retail prices and then double or triple their price on the weekend gun show circuit. Again, not a huge factor, but keeping the shelves looking empty which keeps the panic level higher for those that are looking.

Demand – Now we are getting to the real meat of the issue. You hear manufactures say they are running 24/7 on their Rimfire lines which is putting somewhere around 25-30 million rounds PER DAY (estimate on my part from numbers I have heard from the big rimfire guys) into the market – so how can there be a shortage? I have asked this myself – until we start doing even a little basic math. You hear all kind of numbers about how many firearms owners are in the USA, but you hear 70-80 million quite often. So for the sake of us not arguing that number – let’s cut it to 35 million. Do you know a gun owner that does not own at least one firearm chambered in .22 LR? Do you know any that are not looking for .22 LR ammo or would at least buy some if they saw it for normal prices? How many would they buy when they found it? A lot – right? But again, just to keep the argument on the low end, let’s say they would all be satisfied with just a single 500 pack. 35 million multiplied by 500 .22 LR rounds for them all – is 17.5 BILLION rounds. Let that sink in. Even at 25 million rounds being made PER DAY – that is 1.92 years’ worth of production.

Starts making some sense then doesn’t it? Hoarding and panic emptied the shelves. Gougers try and keep them empty and demand does keep them empty. Then factor in that I probably cut the real number of 22 LR shooters in ½ and probably underestimated the amount everyone would buy if they found it at normal prices by 300% and you can see how deep the problem really is and why it is not going to go away tomorrow. It also does not take into account the world market – just the USA.

How will it get better? Slowly. The hoarders will get to a point that they feel they have enough or will run out of money. The shelves will start getting enough on them that the gougers cannot buy it all. This will make people stop paying $50-$75 for a brick at gun shows. That will make it less profitable for the gougers to spend their money on and they will stop. The shelves will start to have product again which will ease people’s fears and get them back to buying what they need today instead of what they need for the decade. There is no fast answer.

Are the manufactures hiring people for extra shifts and adding capacity – sure they are. But it is easy to just expect them to ramp up production overnight to take care of our needs, but that is just not realistic. We get the same thing here. The market certainly has not grown 500% so what happens when companies add all that super expensive equipment when things get back to normal? They take a bath on it for sure and waste capital that they could have used to improve their company in a way that makes them stronger. Instead they just added equipment they may never need again and have to mothball while they lay off workers they no longer need. Not a great way to run a business and not a fair way to treat employees.

We all just have to trust that it will get better, do not buy more than we need and wait it out. It will not get better overnight. It will start out with a box here and there and then a few and then slowly the shelves will get back to having all the supply and selection we picky consumers are accustom to and will certainly appreciate much more than we ever did before……if only for a little while.


2 posted on 04/08/2014 7:06:12 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: rktman

You know better than to excerpt.


3 posted on 04/08/2014 7:07:45 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: thackney

Just picked up a few bricks from Gander Mt. this past weekend.

It’s out there. People are hoarding it. That’s the answer to why it’s hard to find.


4 posted on 04/08/2014 7:12:05 AM PDT by fulltlt
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To: rktman

The issue is demand is way out stripping capacity. The cost to put in a 22LR manufacturing line is about $8.0M USD and lead time is 30-36 months, the ROI is 18-22 years...so ammunition manufacturers are really slow to put in new capacity for 22LR.

I know because that is what I do every day for a living. The ROI just takes so long on a large capital investment... the manufacturers do not benefit by the high consumer prices, the middle-men do...


5 posted on 04/08/2014 7:12:11 AM PDT by Article10 (Roger That)
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To: rktman

You can buy 22LR out there, if you want to pay 12-15 cents a round for it. You can buy 10,000 at that price.

My target is 5 cents a round. And, that is only the kind you can buy at WalMart if you happen to be there when they put it out on the shelf.

22 MRF is even more expensive....generally you can get all you want if you pay 30-50 cents a round... my target price is less than half that. Again, WalMart prices.

My personal belief is that it will never get back to those general price points. There’s just too much gun-grabbing actions going on, and there will be hoarding for these two calibers going on for quite some time.


6 posted on 04/08/2014 7:13:03 AM PDT by Gaffer (Comprehensive Immigration Reform is just another name for Comprehensive Capitulation)
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To: rktman

22’s are cheaper to shoot then anything thing else out there. Will keep you in practice much cheaper, I think is a lot of the reason.


7 posted on 04/08/2014 7:13:34 AM PDT by Foundahardheadedwoman (God don't have a statute of limitations)
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To: Article10

LOL! You got some spares? :>}


8 posted on 04/08/2014 7:14:31 AM PDT by rktman (Ethnicity: Redneck. Race: Daytona 500)
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To: rktman

Consumption numbers too.

Three guys out in the gravel pit for an afternoon with their semi-autos can burn up some ammo. I am sure that folks are shooting up their supply much more slowly these days, though.


9 posted on 04/08/2014 7:14:34 AM PDT by lurk
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To: rktman

Hoarding.

I imagine there is less profit in it as well, so the manufacturers are not going to go out of their way to increase production.


10 posted on 04/08/2014 7:15:13 AM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: rktman

Unfortunately no... it trickles in from Olin and Remington, ATK and we imported some but the price was too high to be comfortable this time around.


11 posted on 04/08/2014 7:17:33 AM PDT by Article10 (Roger That)
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To: rktman

Now is a golden opportunity for states to create enabling laws to encourage state only gun and ammunition production.

That is, if all materials are produced in a state, and guns and ammo are sold only for in-state use, then eventually an argument can be made that the federal government has no regulatory authority over it.

Importantly, because of lower sales volume, a state wanting to do this needs to create some incentives, such as a contract with businesses that do this for a preference in purchasing state LEO weapons and ammo; and on the other end, commissioning of high value collectible firearms, to be given as awards.


12 posted on 04/08/2014 7:17:44 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (WoT News: Rantburg.com)
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To: thackney
The market certainly has not grown 500% so what happens when companies add all that super expensive equipment when things get back to normal?

At that point the company would have the cash to do something else. The equipment will pay for itself in months. This has been going on for several years.

They take a bath on it for sure and waste capital that they could have used to improve their company in a way that makes them stronger.

I can tell this guy has never been in high volume manufacturing. This is a great opportunity to scrap old equipment affordably while having the depreciation write-off available on the new equipment. That's a winner.

Instead they just added equipment they may never need again and have to mothball while they lay off workers they no longer need. Not a great way to run a business and not a fair way to treat employees.

Having a job for two years beats no job at all. Temps get paid a lot for exactly that reason. Some people like that lifestyle.

Don't tell me that the margins can't support it the short term capacity burst. These guys are making a fortune. That's why they're not adding capacity. It's bad MBA disease.

13 posted on 04/08/2014 7:20:34 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (ObamaCare is Medicaid: They'll pull a sheet over your head and send you the bill.)
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To: Foundahardheadedwoman
22 guns are among the cheapest to buy. There are many more 22 guns sold lately. 22 ammo production is going full blast. There is a line of people at Walmart the day the ammo is put out and they sell out in less than ah hour in many places. Lots of this ammo goes strait to the gun shows to make big money. The government probably released its purchase agreement for billions of rounds of ammo so NSA could track those that panicked and bought guns and ammo.
14 posted on 04/08/2014 7:21:41 AM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: fulltlt
People are hording, plus there are thousands of new shooting enthusiasts, thanks to the current administration.
15 posted on 04/08/2014 7:24:12 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (Rip it out by the roots.)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

If a guy feeding his own livestock food he has grown without incurring the wrath of the FedGov Beast you know the SCOTUS will not likely continue to allow states to claim the right to administer in state weapon production or anything else.


16 posted on 04/08/2014 7:25:56 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: Article10
The issue is demand is way out stripping capacity. The cost to put in a 22LR manufacturing line is about $8.0M USD and lead time is 30-36 months, the ROI is 18-22 years...

I don't believe that lead time number. Nor do I believe the ROI number at these prices. I've put in chemical processing lines that paid for themselves in three months. Design and construction took three months, and that was for an unprecedented process. This is a very well-established technology with drawings on the shelves, established vendors and plenty of available industrial real estate begging for occupation.

No, I don't buy those numbers for a second.

17 posted on 04/08/2014 7:26:12 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (ObamaCare is Medicaid: They'll pull a sheet over your head and send you the bill.)
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To: rktman

I have 5000+- rounds, some of which I’ve had for 5+ years. I think the amount some of you are paying is simply ridiculous.


18 posted on 04/08/2014 7:30:04 AM PDT by Rannug ("all enemies, foreign and domestic")
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To: Rannug

I had to curtail my usage of it.
For targeting, I’ve switched over to .177.


19 posted on 04/08/2014 7:35:34 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Article10

http://www.guns.com/2013/05/02/armscor-rock-island-armory-adding-third-manufacturing-facility-doubling-ammo-production/

http://www.guns.com/2013/05/10/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-remington-expands-ammo-plant-foreign-ammo-imports-double/


20 posted on 04/08/2014 7:38:10 AM PDT by mad_as_he$$
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