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Concealed Carry Permit Holders are One Third as Likely to Commit Murder as Police Officers
Gun Watch ^ | 7 October, 2013 | Dean Weingarten

Posted on 10/06/2013 2:35:45 PM PDT by marktwain

In 1994, when Arizona started its shall issue concealed carry weapon (CCW) program, there was considerable interest in how many and what types of homicides would be related to the new law.

I started teaching classes for the Arizona CCW permit when it went into effect, and I immediately noticed that my students were well above average in attitude, responsibility, and civility.   They always pitched in to assist in setting up where necessary, and their personal checks have always been good.

When the first statistics became available, I eagerly digested the information. One person with a CCW permit had committed a homicide, although not with a concealed weapon.  It was a domestic situation, and the perpetrator was a retired police officer. The question arose, how often do police officers commit homicide compared to concealed carry permit holders?   Of the two, which is more common?

It appears that a person is three times safer with a concealed carry permit holder than they are with a police officer.

Attempting to determine how the homicide rate of people with CCW permits compares to that of police officers is not an easy task.   There are several sources that show that people with CCW permits are far more law abiding than the general population.

One would like to believe that the same is true for police officers, but data is much harder to obtain for them. Agencies that employ sworn officers do not like to tarnish their name with the misdeeds of officers, and unlike a few states that track crimes committed by CCW permit holders, I do not know of any government database of crimes committed by peace officers.

The best reported crimes are homicides.  It is a significant event that is difficult to ignore. There is usually a body.  Media usually reports all the homicides that they learn of.

I found two sources of data that seem roughly comparable:  The Violence Policy Center (VPC)(pdf) attempts to track all homicides that are committed by CCW permit holders.   The data is incomplete, in that it relies on publicly reported stories, but it gives us a useful figure.  It does not seem likely that many reported stories are missed.

For police, I used a web site that tracks domestic homicides committed by police officers, and another that does the same for police involved domestic violence.   The data is comparable to the VPC data in that it relies on publicly reported stories.  Data was available for complete years from 2008 - 2011 for comparison of the two groups.
 

Florida was chosen to represent CCW permit holders, because accurate numbers of permits were obtainable from the Florida Department of Agriculture.   Florida has the highest total of CCW permits of all the states, and the number of resident concealed carry permits in Florida is reasonably close to the number of sworn state and local peace officers in the United States.

The Violence Policy Center (VPC) says that Florida tops the nation in killings by people with concealed carry permits. VPC has complete years in their data base for 2008 - 2011 for Florida.  There are 27 total killings that are unjustified homicides by CCW permit holders, and 14 of those are domestic homicides.    The rate of domestic homicides per 100,000 per year is .583 per 100,000 for CCW holders.

The homicide rate nationally dropped  from 5.4 to 4.7 per 100,000 during this period, and the Florida homicide rate dropped from 6.4 to 5.2 per 100,000. Since we are only looking at CCW holders in Florida, we would expect those rates to be a bit higher than the national rate for this period.

When we look at the numbers for sworn officers, I found 52 domestic homicides committed by sworn police officers from 2008 - 2011.  For the police, nationally from 2008 through 2011, the rate is 52/2,818,924 or  1.854/100,000 domestic homicides per 100,000 police per year.

For the data that we have, police appear to be three times as likely to commit murder as a concealed carry permit holder.

If we include all unjustified homicides (suicides were not included) found in Florida by the VPC for CCW holders for the entire four years, the rate is only 27/2,400,713 or  1.125 per 100,000 population per year.   This is comparable with the homicide rates in developed western European countries.   It is 61% of  the rate for police officers for domestic homicides alone.


There are no complete and definitive sources of data that will give us an accurate ratio of unjustified homicides committed by police compared to CCW holders.  The numbers are very small and no one keeps a national record of them.   However, the numbers found for domestic homicide cases, which are some of the easiest solved and most highly publicised cases, offer strong evidence that CCW permit holders are less likely to commit unjustified homicide than police officers, as little as one third as much.


Link to the data which contains links to individual cases.

Link to source comparing CCW holders to general population

Link The Violence Policy Center (VPC) data base of incidents (pdf)

Link to site that tracks domestic homicides committed by police

Link to site that tracks police involved domestic violence

Link to article where VPC claims that Florida tops the nation in killings by CCW holders

Link to FBI site showing homicide rates by year

Link to site that shows Florida homicide rates by year

Link to site comparing  European homicide rates


©2013 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
Link to Gun Watch


TOPICS: Education; Government; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: banglist; ccw; guncontrol; murder; police; secondamendment
This is not an easy ratio to determine, but this study may be the best that exists. Any other attempts that I have seen to try to determine this ratio have relied on single lines of data, such as estimates of innocent people shot per year by police vs permit holders.
1 posted on 10/06/2013 2:35:45 PM PDT by marktwain
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To: marktwain
My husband had a permit to carry--here in California. He had to go through A LOT to get it but it was a great thing to have. He felt an awesome kind of burden, but a good kind. I felt MUCH safer with him, even though I KNEW that he could beat the tar of out of 99% of all other human beings.
The exception, of course, would be Ethel Merman. :o)
2 posted on 10/06/2013 2:41:54 PM PDT by cloudmountain
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To: marktwain

It may not be an easy ratio to determine but it is easily digested when you add all the other nefarious crap police officers pull.


3 posted on 10/06/2013 2:41:54 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: marktwain

I’ve had my permit 2 years and have shot no one.
Like the article says, I also don’t write bad checks.

: )


4 posted on 10/06/2013 2:44:00 PM PDT by TheConservativeParty (He's not the president, he just plays one on TV.)
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To: cloudmountain

ever one knows avoiding her is the ethelogical thing to do


5 posted on 10/06/2013 2:45:58 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: marktwain

I also remember a study years ago (sorry no cite) that found that in a shooting, cops were 3 times as likely to shoot the wrong person than a citizen (permit or not).

Primarily because victims are the true “first responders.” A citizen is usually shooting his/her attacker. When a cop arrives, their chance of shooting the wrong person is much higher.


6 posted on 10/06/2013 3:00:52 PM PDT by Klaatu Barada Nikto (Liberty is not a Loophole)
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To: Klaatu Barada Nikto

Yes, I remember that, and it made perfect sense to me.


7 posted on 10/06/2013 3:05:23 PM PDT by marktwain (The MSM must die for the Republic to live. Long live the new media!)
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To: marktwain

Well then obviously we need to mandate that all police officers also obtain concealed carry permits, and we’ll all be safer.


8 posted on 10/06/2013 3:08:54 PM PDT by Yo-Yo
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To: Yo-Yo

Officers that had CCW permits were counted as officers ;-)


9 posted on 10/06/2013 3:10:05 PM PDT by marktwain (The MSM must die for the Republic to live. Long live the new media!)
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To: Klaatu Barada Nikto

Bad guys “pick up” the psychology of fear in a potential victim. The clues that the potential victim gives is in their walk, how they hold their head and body and eye contact. When you are carrying you do not show these signs of fear. The bad guys also pick up the lack of fear and search for a different victim.

The point being is that many crimes have not happened because a law abiding citizen is carrying a concealed firearm.


10 posted on 10/06/2013 3:13:55 PM PDT by cpdiii (Deckhand, Roughneck, Mud Man, Geologist, Pilot, Pharmacist. THE CONSTITUTION IS WORTH DYING FOR!)
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To: TheConservativeParty
I've had a CCW/CHL since after I was robbed/shot in 1974, in FL, and haven't had to use my firearm, yet. I hope I never do.

I still carry the round:


11 posted on 10/06/2013 3:14:22 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Peace is that brief glorious moment in history, when everybody stands around reloading.)
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To: marktwain

And actually i put some stock behind these numbers as there are far more ccw’s out there than police. the sample population for ccw’s is so much greater the one-third number is strongly validated by the sample size.


12 posted on 10/06/2013 3:23:19 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: marktwain

How about shooting of dogs? I bet CCW holders shoot dogs 1/10,000th less than cops.


13 posted on 10/06/2013 3:24:50 PM PDT by CodeToad (Liberals are bloodsucking ticks. We need to light the matchstick to burn them off. -786 +969)
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To: marktwain

What about unarmed women in cars?


14 posted on 10/06/2013 3:26:40 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: bigheadfred
ever one knows avoiding her is the ethelogical thing to do

Hahaha. That was 2/3 of a pun...P U

15 posted on 10/06/2013 3:45:25 PM PDT by cloudmountain
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To: TBP
What about unarmed women in cars?

BOO! HHHIIISSSSSSSS.........

16 posted on 10/06/2013 3:46:51 PM PDT by cloudmountain
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To: marktwain

Most cops are union members and a whole lot of them are easily identifiable as DemoCRAPS. So, sure, they have a higher percentage of murderers than the general population. Hire cops on MERIT ONLY and ban public employee unions and then you will see this level out.


17 posted on 10/06/2013 3:59:15 PM PDT by GodAndCountryFirst
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To: marktwain

There really is a pressing need for clarity in these statistics. Suicide should be tracked separately from other homicide, and killing homicide needs to be subdivided as well, into murder-homicide, accidental-homicide, reckless-homicide and justifiable-homicide. Finally, murder-homicide needs the traditional subdivision for premeditated murder, murder in the heat of anger, and manslaughter.

Only then, can the additional discriminators of CCW and LEO involvement really make hard and fast sense.


18 posted on 10/06/2013 4:25:38 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (The best War on Terror News is at rantburg.com)
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To: marktwain
Cops show up after your dead because you could not defend yourself. CCW holders live because they are the first in line in the crime. Which would you rather have. Death because of a late cop or life if you could react at the time of the crime.

What makes cops happy is they can play game catching the criminal. My way would have the undertaker to clean up.

19 posted on 10/06/2013 4:44:08 PM PDT by Logical me
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

There really is a pressing need for clarity in these statistics. Suicide should be tracked separately from other homicide, and killing homicide needs to be subdivided as well, into murder-homicide, accidental-homicide, reckless-homicide and justifiable-homicide. Finally, murder-homicide needs the traditional subdivision for premeditated murder, murder in the heat of anger, and manslaughter.

The data in this article is for unjustified homicide. Suicides are not considered. All the unjustified homicides are lumped in together.

It is very difficult to obtain the data that could do what you want. The UCR is not very helpful.


20 posted on 10/06/2013 5:03:42 PM PDT by marktwain (The MSM must die for the Republic to live. Long live the new media!)
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To: cloudmountain
even though I KNEW that he could beat the tar of out of 99% of all other human beings. The exception, of course, would be Ethel Merman. :o)

And Chuck Norris


21 posted on 10/06/2013 5:18:00 PM PDT by mountn man (The Pleasure You Get From Life Is Equal To The Attitude You Put Into It)
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To: marktwain
Officers that had CCW permits were counted as officers ;-)


22 posted on 10/06/2013 5:21:59 PM PDT by Yo-Yo
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To: mountn man

And Chuck Norris.


23 posted on 10/06/2013 5:33:33 PM PDT by cloudmountain
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To: mountn man

LOVE your poster!


24 posted on 10/06/2013 5:34:14 PM PDT by cloudmountain
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To: carriage_hill

Ouch. Glad you are OK.


25 posted on 10/06/2013 5:58:51 PM PDT by TheConservativeParty (He's not the president, he just plays one on TV.)
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To: marktwain

I quite agree, and I gather that states do not have uniform reporting. I’m impressed you were able to get even suicide filtered data. The gun controllers do not want to make that distinction.


26 posted on 10/06/2013 6:41:32 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (The best War on Terror News is at rantburg.com)
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To: marktwain

Congratulations and a big hearty thank you for the report. What do you think about sending it on to John Lott and asking for his signature beside yours for the data accuracy.

You might just push some other folks into releasing their figures with this report. Good move!


27 posted on 10/06/2013 7:24:26 PM PDT by B4Ranch (AGENDA: Grinding America Down ----- <<http://vimeo.com/63749370)
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To: B4Ranch; All

The data is all publicly available except the resident numbers for Florida permit.

I believe that anyone can obtain that data by asking. That is what I did.

All of the data is available by links in the article.

I would love to have John Lott comment on it.


28 posted on 10/07/2013 2:47:28 AM PDT by marktwain (The MSM must die for the Republic to live. Long live the new media!)
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To: carriage_hill

Little bastard shot you in the ass?


29 posted on 10/07/2013 12:06:12 PM PDT by gundog (Help us, Nairobi-Wan Kenobi...you're our only hope.)
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To: gundog

2 of Holder’s people robbed and shot me, while my fiancée and I were leaving a restaurant in W. Palm Bch, after attending premier opening of People Magazine, in the parking lot. .32cal entered the left hip, 2” below belt line. Missed all bones, organs, veins & arteries and nerves; stopped just short of the spine. Didn’t even bleed; just a half-grapefruit-sized red lump with a black dot in the center. South Miami Hosp Trauma Ctr docs left it in, as it would have been more traumatic to take it out. Hasn’t bothreed me all these years. Wish I had it out to wear on end on chain around my neck. Heh...

I got out of South Miami Hosp, went to Tamiami Gun Shop next day, and bought 6” Colt Trooper MKIII .357Magnum; now carry a 5” Kimber 1911 .45cal ACP w/ extra mags. I won’t be a victim twice.


30 posted on 10/07/2013 12:35:34 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Peace is that brief glorious moment in history, when everybody stands around reloading.)
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