Skip to comments.Spoiler Alert in VA Governor Race
Posted on 09/13/2013 5:38:57 AM PDT by markomalley
Spoiler candidate alert: Libertarian Robert Sarvis is a third-party candidate in the 2013 Virginia governors race. Although polling reveals that it is unlikely for him to win, will he split votes away from Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli in the process?
Election day is less than 60 days away, and Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry McAuliffe are in crunch time. However, neither candidate option fully satisfies voters. According to a recent poll of likely voters, only 34% of likely voters hold McAuliffe in a favorable opinion, and only 35% hold Cuccinelli in this regard.
Reflecting the mood of the Virginia race, Barton Hinkle likened the choice to choosing between Sauron and SpongeBob Squarepants.
For Virginia voters torn by this dilemma, Robert Sarvis may be an exciting prospect. Born and raised in the Northern Virginia area, he possesses a background prime for Virginia politics. Impressively, he received his undergraduate degree from Harvard, went on to receive a degree in mathematics from the University of Cambridge, a J.D. from N.Y.U School of Law, and a Masters in economics from George Mason University.
Sarvis champions the campaign slogan, Virginia: Open-minded, and Open for Business. According to his campaign website, he espouses ideals of personal and economic freedoms. Having a mixed race heritage, he promises to bring diversity to the position.
However, despite his impressive background, it is unlikely that Sarvis offers Virginians a plausible alternative winner.
Notably, his greatest obstacle is that as a third party candidate, he does not command the same media spotlight or campaign spending dollars as McAuliffe or Cuccinelli. For example, he was not invited to a recent Virginia gubernatorial candidate debate.
But, will Sarvis be to blame if Cuccinelli loses the election?
At this time, Cuccinelli seems likely to lose whether Sarvis runs or not. For evidence, compare polling data that pairs only Cuccinelli and McAuliffe against each other, to data that includes all three candidates. When only Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are paired, McAuliffe is in the lead at 48%-42%. Meanwhile, data that includes all three candidates depicts McAuliffe at 45.2%, Cuccinelli at 37.3%, and Sarvis is a distant third at 9.5%.
Judging by this criteria, it appears that McAuliffe is the front-runner, with or without Sarvis, for the time being. However, as the momentum of his campaign picks up, this may change in the future.
Virginia is stuck on stupid
The Libertarian is not the spoiler. This retread loser the GOP-e stuck the voters with is the spoiler. When the choice is between a big government statist leaning left or a big government statist claiming to not lean left, in spite of evidence to the contrary, people look elsewhere.
As of 2012 I no longer blame third party candidates for republican losses; the republicans are to blame for fielding xerox candidates nearly indistinguishable from democrats. Cuccinelli isn’t a bad man but “not bad” is no longer a sufficient qualification for a vote.
the ads in Va., from both sides basically say “our guy is less of a crook than their guy”
3rd party candidates are tools of the enemy.
Then why don't we field some? Some "Occuoation" party candidates. One reason is the 'rats have absolte control and displine from a political side. You wander off the reservation, and it's a firestorm. The fringes of the conservative side though, have a "my way or the highway" attitude. If the Paulistas want respect, then they can start winning elections. I am sick of their big mouths and 5% of the vote. I wish most of them would just join the Democrats and do their havoc there.
Feel entitled to that vote for the GOP-E, do you?
The Libertarian is propped up by Liberal donors, to siphon votes from Cucinelli and let the Dem win that way. FRAUD will be rampant in THIS one.....
Anyone who disagrees with you should just remember all the damage Ross Perot did in 1992. If it were not for him, Bill Clinton would have lost, and today Hillary would be just another crooked two-bit Arkansas lawyer.
The solution is simple. If no candidate for a major office gets a majority of the vote, have a run off.
Thank you Libertarians last time you and other third party conservatives cost us 8 houe seats a US Senate seat and 1 governorship. Thanks to you there might be enough rinos there to pass amnesty and who knows what else.
Third party candidates elect Democrats. Libertarians need to be outlawed.
As long as the GOP-E runs liberals, some people aren't going to vote for the liberal(R). Period. You need to get over it.
How about outlawing open primaries? Oh... the GOP-E doesn't want to do that. I wonder why?
I’m no fan of Ken C., but this guy appears to be a capital ‘L’ Libertarian wingnut re: open borders.
From his web site:
“He seeks to expand personal freedom by...embracing immigrants with open arms.”
Everyone needs to vote for the liberterian to show those RINO republicans like Cuchinelli a thing or three. That splitting the republican’t vote will probably ensure that MacAuliffe wins is irrelevant.
I’d take Ken C over this liberaltarian who wants homosexual marriage, open borders and the rest of the communist crap.
mmmmmmmmm, Wonder who the liberaltarain backers are, I;m sure that would be interesting to see and why they are going to siphon votes away from the right.
wrong Johnny IMO, if Ken is there but the college fools and liberals who hate paying taxes don’t like normal marriage and closed borders then they will vote for their more liberal guy like the liberataran
If this state allows McAwful to slither into the Governor's mansion it sure as hell is.
yea that will show VA, they can have their iopen borders, homosexual , abortion loving , make drugs legal etc crap, yep that would show VA
Whining about people not voting the way you think they should isn't going to get you anywhere.
There's a nice fascist notion.
And I'm not even a Libertarian.
Who are backing this liberaltarian and his liberal policies like open borders, homosexual marriage, make all drugs legal?
Hell is he a full fledged liberaltarian who wants to get rid of the FBI, CIA, get rid if incest laws and sex age laws too?
And another old myth raises its ugly head...
This is just another example of how stupid the GOP-E is. When they run a liberal, they lose conservative votes but don't gain any liberal votes.
Unfortunately, I think that's the wave of the future, at least in Republican presidential primaries. That's because the conservative candidates split the vote, allowing the GOP-E to squeak through. I fear we're doomed to a long line of Romneys in our future.
Unless, well, see my tagline.
That splitting the republicant vote will probably ensure that MacAuliffe wins is irrelevant.
BS. It’s entirely relevant if McAuliffe wins. That POS is as corrupt as they come.
think you missed my point.
If a guy runs wanting open borders he gets the illegals and their family to vote for him.
They come out on mass.
If like liberaltarians want their homosexual marriage, cross dressing and teach it in the schools then they will vote for the liberaltarian.
Now if they hate paying taxes and fall for the usual clap trap of freedom but never think about how no laws would bring anarachy then they will vote liberaltarian .
Think of the dumb college kids
Most of the Sarvis support is drawn from Cuccinelli. Likely, as the election approaches, people will wake up and realize the disaster that awaits if McAuliffe wins in November. This race will tighten up considerably in coming weeks.
to say it does not matter is stunning, of course if MacAulliffe wins would greatly affect VA and for future elections.
Hopefully the voters of VA wise up and put at least leaning right guy in and get rid of the other two lefty fools
well at least this pro open borders, pro cross dressing, pro get rid of incest laws, get rid of no sex age law, no FBI, CIA, allow public sex and in front of kids liberaltarian is actually using their own platform unlike nutty Ron Paul.
Question is will he tell the voters all of his radical left wing views before the vote.
Virginia is infested with transplanted liberals from the north, and the usual suspects in the large cities: welfare rats and other dependant types. sadly its not a condition that is likely to improve.
All I know is this. Perot ran on a smaller government platform. He emphasized fiscal responsibility. Those are conservative principles, and it attracted conservative votes.
As I said, if you have to worry about 3rd party spoilers, your candidate sucks.
What is your plan to get more conservative GOP candidates?
I’m curious why you guys think Cuccinelli is a GOP-e candidate. He’s pretty conservative.
It’s a joke, relax.
As for allowing perverts, homosexual marriage, no sex age laws, make all drugs legal , well which candidate and party would advocate that
that is my understanding too, he;s hardly a RINO for VA.
What are you doing to make sure your party puts up strong candidates? Are you working to close primaries in your state? How are you being part of the solution? Or do you just want to rant about libertarians?
I don’t think the VA Democrats will have to use much fraud in the future, as a previous poster said, “VA is stuck on stupid”, trying to imitate MD and NYC.
I am one of those who think Perot helped Clinton but that Clinton would have won in a two-way race as well. The first GHWB just didn’t have the desire to expose his “son” Clinton.
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