Posted on 02/14/2013 8:54:35 AM PST by whitedog57
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 35.9 in the period ended Feb. 10 from minus 36.3 in the prior week. But notice that the recession of the early 1990s saw a dip below -20 but quickly rebounded. We are seeing no such rebound from below -20 in this recession (although the NBER claims that it ended in June 2009).
I am not so confident given the tenacity of negative consumer confidence.
Over the past three months, we have seen some commodity prices skyrocket.
First, lumber has soared 23.77%.
Second, gasoline has soared 15.91%.
While gold and silver are the only metals that have fallen over the past three months (other than Shanghai aluminum).
So, lumber, gasoline and non gold and silver metals have skyrocketed over the past three months. Meanwhile the St. Louis Fed measure of money supply has skyrocketed since January 2009.
While M2 Money Velocity continues to tank.
Forward!
Its the Jimmy Carter MISERY INDEX all over again!
First, lumber has soared 23.77%.
Lumber has been getting a fair amount of press lately because it was one of the largest increases in 2012 on the CME. Demand is up at many of many customers 50% month to month over last year. There are a lot of apts being built and sigle family building is coming back after 5 years of doing nothing. Housing Starts will steadily climb for the next several years to make up for what has not been built since 2008.
Quite a while back, associates of big lumber mills shut down many small mills by attending local government meetings around the country and doing back room deals. Now, the big mills radically cut production, when demand goes down—much like other big companies in this so-called economy. They outlaw competition, then choke supply. It’s a global market with global bosses.
Much smaller houses, here we come (also for property tax and energy cost reasons).
“Boomerang Foreclosures” Are Back As Bernanke’s Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop
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