Skip to comments.Today’s real election fundamental: Rasmussen has Republican Party ID +5.8% in 2010 it was -2.9%
Posted on 11/06/2012 6:56:33 AM PST by jmaroneps37
In the last Rasmussen survey of Party identification before the 2010 election the Democrats held a Party ID lead of 2.9%. Republicans were 33.4% Democrats, 36.3% and Independents 30.3%. Republicans still won 63 seats in Congress.
Todays Rasmussen final Party ID survey shows Republicans at an all- time high of 39.1% Democrats at 33.3% and Independents at 27.5%. There are 5.8% more Republicans than Democrats.
Since Septembers survey, published a bit over 30 days ago, Republicans have grown 2.3%, Democrats have fallen .9% and Independents have fallen 1.5%. These shifts account for only 2.4 points of the difference of 5.8. Where have the other 3.4 points come from?
It means people feel more comfortable identifying as Republican. It means where registration has continued into the middle or end of October (in New York State it went on until Oct. 13) Republicans have seen a strong increase in registrations.
It also means that some Democrats almost one full point have switched Parties and 1.5 points of Independents have re-registered as Republicans. In both cases theses voters can obviously be counted on as the most extreme of likely voters.
Have these voters answered pollsters? Do they account for the leads that have been reported for Mitt Romney in early voting if such voting is an option in their state?
Given Rasmussens new 5.8% Republicans registration edge, how can CNN or any poll use an over sample of Democrats to any extent let alone 11 points?
If over sampling of Democrats anywhere between 2 to 11 points produces just a tie or a slight lead for Barack Obama, factoring in Rasmussens huge registration lead produces a terrifying scenario for Obama.
Gallup confirmed : Obama is NOT winning any group he lost in 2008 nor with any group,[he won]..
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
How this question is answered is in fact the entire game today.
We shall see.
From your post to G_d’s inbox... :)
and what Poll had these numbers
I know!!!! Strange. We’ll all know a whole lot more when the dust settles.
Let’s do the Rasmussen math:
PartyID = R+5.8
Turnout Model = D+2 (could be D+4 but I don’t think so)
Total differential 7.8
Say what? There is no, I repeat no possible explanation for this. Raz is just ignoring the fact that more people call them themselves Republicans than at any time in the history of Rasmussen polling.
And that history includes a unexpected and inexplicable bias that understates GOP turnout and overstates Dem turnout. One would think he would learn from his past mistakes. Not so apparently.
STORM HEAVEN WITH PRAYERS.
Rasmussen said on the radio this AM he has no idea who will win.
Please!!Please!! Please let this be true!!
Please remember that Rasmussen does not use his polling survey results for party affiliation as his base formula. He uses his historic understanding of party affiliation for his base formula. He believes that historic party ID does not easily change. Many freepers have pegged Rasmussen’s basic party ID formula as Dem+3 or Dem+5, depending on who you’re talking to.
Rasmussen then adjusts his basic formula by an internal formula known to him and his organization. I assume that’s where his party affiliation survey gets used, but I can’t prove that. Nor do I know the other things he uses in that internal adjustment.
Just for discussion, though, let’s assume he uses Dem+3 as his basic formula and adjusts it point for point with his party id survey of 5.8%. That would mean that he’s actually saying the electorate is roughly R+2.8 (-3+5.8).
Yesterday, I think I heard on Fox that Ras is using R+1. That could mean the other factors in his formula subtract from the Repub advantage or it could mean that his base formula is D+5 as some have said. That would get us to R+.8, and that would round up to R+1.
I have absolutely no way of proving this; it’s just my opinion.
how long has Ras known this? you know, you can’t trust anyone in polling. 57-43...Romney
12 The wicked plot against the righteous
and gnash their teeth at them;
13 but the Lord laughs at the wicked,
for he knows their day is coming.
14 The wicked draw the sword
and bend the bow to bring down the poor and needy,
to slay those whose ways are upright.
15 But their swords will pierce their own hearts,
and their bows will be broken.
16 Better the little that the righteous have
than the wealth of many wicked;
17 for the power of the wicked will be broken,
but the LORD upholds the righteous.
Hear our prayer, O Lord ..
Hear our prayer, O Lord ..
Incline thine ear to us
And grant us thy peace. Amen ..
How will Rasmussen spin this on Fox tonight as the returns show a healthy Romney win?
If more Republicans vote than Democrats, easy Romney victory by around 6%.
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