Posted on 11/04/2012 8:57:53 PM PST by Steelfish
Poll: Swing-State Voters Split 48-48 Between Obama, Romney By Meghashyam Mali - 11/04/12
Voters in swing states are evenly split between President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney, according to a new poll from USA Today/Gallup.
The poll released late Sunday finds 48 percent of likely voters in the nation’s key battlegrounds backing Obama and 48 preferring Romney.
The numbers show a 4-point bounce for Obama from the last USA Today/Gallup Poll of Swing States in early October, taken days after a disappointing first debate for the president. Obama also leads by 4-points among registered voters at 50 to 46, which the poll notes is the largest margin and the first time either candidate has hit 50 percent since Romney clinched the GOP nomination in the spring.
The poll shows Obama regaining a strong edge with female voters who had drifted towards Romney after the first debate, boosting the GOP challenger in national polls. Obama now leads among women by 16 points, while Romney holds a 10-point advantage among men.
RELATED ARTICLES Poll: Romney up 6 in Florida But Romney leads among independent voters by 1-point and holds an edge on the economy, which voters say is the most important issue this election.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Snark elsewhere !
Ah, good information. Yes, this does skew the results quite a bit. Just confused about Gallup’s involvement in this particular poll.
I don’t get it...
We laugh at Algores crapscience and yet people here take every poll as if it were carved in stone by the Almighty.
Put up or shut up.
Where’d you find the internals?
Gallup in its poll does NOT adjust for party identification, according to what was written about it last week. As such, this poll is probably a gallup poll result massaged by USA Today’s party base and turnout concepts.
So, it is like the guy hiring a CPA and asking a simple math question to determine whom would be his CFO. The proper answer to the question was “what do you want the answer to be”. So, while these polls have some value, they are as valid as the overlay.
As far as the gender difference I believe that large difference takes place in decreasing numbers as the age brackets go up. I have not seen the degree of interest in the younger voters this time as I did in 08 so my suspicion is that large a difference is probably over sampled.
FRiends don't freak out about this news, chances are the polls would have tightened up anyway even if Sandy or if Governor. Kristie Kreme hadn't whored himself out to Obama. They are creating fear porn and trying to dispirit you - don't fall for it.
Thanks. I just find it interesting that Gallup would lend their name to something that could be improperly skewed or reported. Gotta make money, I guess.
Many posters do not understand that Gallup is a for profit polling firm Hired by USAToday to create a product they ( lefties at USA today) want and not Gallup !
The poll is product meant to sell more papers .
They could care less if its accurate and who will remember in one week ‘
The poll internals are a joke but people Just read headlined and particular this rag which is actually written on a
3 grade reading level ( I am serious).
Is this the final Gallup poll we have been waiting for?
I think not...the article linked to in “The Hill” says the poll was conducted Oct. 27-31, not over this weekend... What gives with the Nov. 3 release date?
Correction—Nov. 4 release date of poll conducted Oct. 27-31 (according to The Hill linked article).
Good analogy. When I see someone using what the common person would take to be a scientific approach but actually just using it to justify his own predetermined conclusions, I call it ‘crapscience’. Algores global horsepuckey was the perfect example, and I think we’ve been seeing the same kind of nonsense in these polls for months. Any scientific or statistical credibility goes out the window when you read what we’ve read about how they massage the data. And in my opinion, said massaging is done for two reasons, ideological and financial. The pollsters can tell their clients what they want to hear for a long time, but as the day of truth approaches, they want to end up with a plausible excuse so they can stay in business.
These polls are not pure unbiased science. Polling is a business.
No, Gallup is due tomorrow (Monday)
Wait, so now Gallup is not to be trusted also?
No USA can’t be trusted! Gallup won’t release their poll until tomorrow!!!
Oct. 27-31 USA TODAY/Gallup Swing State Poll of 1,183 registered voters, Margin of sampling error +/- 4 percentage points for all questions except voting intentions.
By: Kevin A. Kepple and Susan Page, USA TODAY
What can I say? It sucks.
Because of that, I have no desire to gloat about it.
I guess we’re just different that way.
I look at this election this way: the enthusiasm for his excellency is no where near where it was in 08, especially among the younger voters. Add in the black vote is also going to be down for him because of his homo stance. Obamacare is unpopular and should remove some more votes. Meanwhile, the turnout for Romney is far more enthusiastic than it was for McCain whom we pretty much knew was going to lose a month before the election...I don’t sense that feeling of doom this time. I keep hearing that billy boy Clinton is so popular, correct me if I am wrong, but I don’t recall him with monumental popular votes in either of his elections and if he were popular, Obama’s demeaning of Hitlery may detract from any support he gets from billy boy.
So, on balance I have a good feeling about this election, close call perhaps a win by ten EV overall. The thing I dread would be a loss to this pile of crap because if we cannot win this one, the country is lost for good and it will literally be every man for themselves if that gender gap becomes reality.
Another bad news post by Steelfish! You are on a (t)roll!
Tied with registered voters = Romney +3
I see “Gallup” on a poll, something many others would see, and wondered why this would invalidate the results. A few here graciously explained how Gallup works with respect to this particularly poll. A few others went for the personal attack. As you said, I guess we’re just different that way.
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