Funny how his bias is altering his methodology. He will definitely lose some credibility as a statistician if his analysis of this election is way off. To me, he is using bad polling data. So, garbage in = garbage out.
What do we have when you take the tea party voters out of the equation when measuring the independent vote? Heck, there is definitely a part of that phenomenal 16 % lead for Romney among independents who are “us”— plain old Republicans just going by a different name. How big a part is it?
This election depends on help from turning Democrats.
In 2016 the DNC/State media pollsters will not allow the +Republican , because using a plus for the incumbent party proved to be so erroneous in 2012.
His opinions have matured.
I’ll use this article for a place to make my point. If Obama loses this election by more than four points, the media will have so much egg on their face they won’t be able to look at themsleves in the mirror the next morning. They’ll have to slink out like someone who regrets an indiscretion after drinking too much. So, they better be right about all of this ‘close’ election stuff or us on the right are going to come down very hard...including on this Silver phony.
The media has been especially bad because they are so clearly in Obama’s corner. Benghazi is a real screw up and they are coving it like it’s a story on some hack right wing web site, I’m embarrassed for them. They should feel like they are walking around in public with their clothes off.
But, for some reason they feel it’s their duty to counter popular commentators such as Rush and Levine or even OReily who are not news people but, simply men with opinions. The news media is not supposed to feel threatened by them any more than they should feel threatened by a rain storm. In fact, the media should probaby actually report on those guys as they should on any popular liberal commentator who might catch the publics attention.
Instead, the media has grown defensive over the last 25 years as conservitives voices have grown louder. It’s sort of like an official taking sides because his team is losing. The problem is, the official is not supoosed to have a team!!!
Uggggh!! I’m so frustrated by the state of our country but especially by the state of our media. They have one job: Report the truth as best they can. When they ncan’t even do that one job, we’re in big trouble and that’s what I’m saying: We’re in big trouble because the fix is in. George Orwell had it right.
Except of course for leftist Democrats with Somali stooges and SEIU drivers!
His 2009 statement is correct.
The farther you sway from the center ,
The farther you loose grasp of the independents. The country’s been center right for a very long time.
just ask bill Clinton.
51 ish 47 ish ~1% other — winner Romney. There’s that mystical number 47 again. Perhaps, it is ...the universal answer, not 42.