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Nate Silver, 2009: Any Candidate Losing Independents "Must Necessarily" Lose The Election
Ace Of Spades HQ ^ | November 1, 2012 | Ace

Posted on 11/01/2012 8:10:29 PM PDT by FL2012

Lot of things have changed since then, though.

Like, for example: Silver's preferred candidate losing the independent vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at minx.cc ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: election; natesilver

1 posted on 11/01/2012 8:10:39 PM PDT by FL2012
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To: FL2012

Funny how his bias is altering his methodology. He will definitely lose some credibility as a statistician if his analysis of this election is way off. To me, he is using bad polling data. So, garbage in = garbage out.


2 posted on 11/01/2012 8:15:49 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: FL2012

What do we have when you take the tea party voters out of the equation when measuring the independent vote? Heck, there is definitely a part of that phenomenal 16 % lead for Romney among independents who are “us”— plain old Republicans just going by a different name. How big a part is it?

This election depends on help from turning Democrats.


3 posted on 11/01/2012 8:18:40 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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To: FL2012

In 2016 the DNC/State media pollsters will not allow the +Republican , because using a plus for the incumbent party proved to be so erroneous in 2012.


4 posted on 11/01/2012 8:18:40 PM PDT by NoLibZone (I know what it is to be Black,to be hated for who I am, more so than Whoppi does. I'm a Republican.)
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To: 3Fingas

Moonbat Silver feeding the Moonbat OBots what they want to hear.


5 posted on 11/01/2012 8:24:20 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: RitaOK

How many Republicans registered as Democrats during the Rush Choas in 2008? Are the Democrats counting on those for Obama, lots of luck.


6 posted on 11/01/2012 8:25:44 PM PDT by annieokie
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To: annieokie

I’m obtuse tonight. I don’t get how a primary label switch compares with tea party voters leaving the Republican Party in order to send a protest message and registering as Indies for the General Election applies.


7 posted on 11/01/2012 8:35:00 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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To: Red Steel

That is not possible because Nate Silver is the super smart wiz kid who came up with “moneyball” and is obviously smarter than anyone else ever.


8 posted on 11/01/2012 8:36:12 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: FL2012

His opinions have matured.


9 posted on 11/01/2012 8:36:58 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: FL2012

I’ll use this article for a place to make my point. If Obama loses this election by more than four points, the media will have so much egg on their face they won’t be able to look at themsleves in the mirror the next morning. They’ll have to slink out like someone who regrets an indiscretion after drinking too much. So, they better be right about all of this ‘close’ election stuff or us on the right are going to come down very hard...including on this Silver phony.

The media has been especially bad because they are so clearly in Obama’s corner. Benghazi is a real screw up and they are coving it like it’s a story on some hack right wing web site, I’m embarrassed for them. They should feel like they are walking around in public with their clothes off.

But, for some reason they feel it’s their duty to counter popular commentators such as Rush and Levine or even OReily who are not news people but, simply men with opinions. The news media is not supposed to feel threatened by them any more than they should feel threatened by a rain storm. In fact, the media should probaby actually report on those guys as they should on any popular liberal commentator who might catch the publics attention.

Instead, the media has grown defensive over the last 25 years as conservitives voices have grown louder. It’s sort of like an official taking sides because his team is losing. The problem is, the official is not supoosed to have a team!!!

Uggggh!! I’m so frustrated by the state of our country but especially by the state of our media. They have one job: Report the truth as best they can. When they ncan’t even do that one job, we’re in big trouble and that’s what I’m saying: We’re in big trouble because the fix is in. George Orwell had it right.


10 posted on 11/01/2012 8:37:03 PM PDT by Mustangman (The GOP)
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To: Mustangman

I have this as a 5 point race, 52 to 47.


11 posted on 11/01/2012 8:38:02 PM PDT by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
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To: FL2012

Except of course for leftist Democrats with Somali stooges and SEIU drivers!


12 posted on 11/01/2012 8:48:15 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: RitaOK

rofl, I don’t think it does. I was just wondering if the Democrats were counting those cross overs as theirs.lol


13 posted on 11/01/2012 8:48:30 PM PDT by annieokie
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To: NeoCaveman

It would be nice but, do you have any data to back up this argument? I know Dick Morris and Karl Rove say basically the same thing you are saying.


14 posted on 11/01/2012 8:49:31 PM PDT by Mustangman (The GOP)
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To: Mustangman
If Obama loses this election by more than four points, the media will have so much egg on their face they won’t be able to look at themsleves in the mirror the next morning.

Newsflash for you: the kneepad media already knows that Obama is going to lose this election by more than four points. But, they are desperate to close that gap and pull their chosen one over the line by lying to you.

They’ll have to slink out like someone who regrets an indiscretion after drinking too much.

Nope, the Obama kneepad media will simply sharpen their knives and go after Romney and every other Republican.

We'll start to see repeated sob stories about people who lost their house, lost their job, have to depend on food stamps, can't afford health care, etc. And it will all be the Republican's and Romney's fault.

It will be like none of these people existed for the past four years, and they suddenly materialized out of nowhere because the Democrats are no longer in control. I'll bet the kneepad media don't even wait until Romney is sworn in.

15 posted on 11/01/2012 8:49:47 PM PDT by justlurking (tagline removed, as demanded by Admin Moderator)
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To: FL2012

His 2009 statement is correct.
The farther you sway from the center ,
The farther you loose grasp of the independents. The country’s been center right for a very long time.
just ask bill Clinton.


16 posted on 11/01/2012 8:57:53 PM PDT by Morris70
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To: annieokie

:).

Yes, I get it now! I hope they are counting those crossovers, cuz I WAS one! LOL!


17 posted on 11/01/2012 9:19:43 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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To: RitaOK
They got another think coming if they are counting them, now add to that, all the silent Tea Partiers, and just run of the mill silent majority. I do belive I see a Landslide in all those numbers.

Add to that all the college kids graduating with NO Job potential, and only their faded Obama posters.

18 posted on 11/01/2012 9:40:49 PM PDT by annieokie
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To: 3Fingas

The last scene in Moneyball has his team losing.

Bread and Butter gamblers are not touching Nate Silver’s odds. They’re not even touching +140 Obama (that’s $140 to win $100).


19 posted on 11/01/2012 9:48:17 PM PDT by Usagi_yo
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To: 3Fingas

“Nate Silver is the super smart wiz kid who came up with “moneyball””

What is meatball??


20 posted on 11/01/2012 10:02:47 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: dalereed

excuse me, moneyball, what is it??


21 posted on 11/01/2012 10:03:43 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: dalereed

Meatball is something my grandmother from the old country used to make every Sunday...lol...:-D

Moneyball was a movie/book about the statistical method that Nate Silver or someone very much like him used to predict how baseball players would perform. Supposedly, teams now use it because it is very effective when signing players.


22 posted on 11/01/2012 10:09:38 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: 3Fingas

Interesting factoid:

The Clint Eastwood movie, “Trouble with the Curve”, also about baseball, makes fun of this statistical system and implies that it can miss something a human can easily observe “i.e. someone who can hit fast balls all day, but can’t hit a curve ball to save his life”. Just thought it was apropos. Apparently, Nate Silver may be having trouble with his own curve.....Eastwood again...seeing things that others don’t.


23 posted on 11/01/2012 10:21:40 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: FL2012

Great find!


24 posted on 11/01/2012 10:36:06 PM PDT by muwarriors92
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To: FL2012

51 ish 47 ish ~1% other — winner Romney. There’s that mystical number 47 again. Perhaps, it is ...the universal answer, not 42.


25 posted on 11/02/2012 5:41:36 AM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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