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To: HenryArmitage

Silver is betting his bias along with the Lib pollsters he swallows that borders on delusional like the rest of the clowns at DU.

For an example. Poll after poll including PPP and PMSNBC polls show very large margins of Indies breaking for Romney. I think the average is about 15% over Obama of all polls taken into account. What did Obama win the Independents vote by in 2008? I recall he won it by 7% to 8% over McCain and about the difference in the presidential 2008 election. If the polls are shown to be correct in a few days, that is about a 22% to 23% Indy swing from 2008 and in favor of Romney.

The liberal pollsters and Silver “think” that the Dims will show up voting at the same rate or even more than 2008, and that the Rs won’t increase their numbers but even be less than in 2008 to include the Independents who are woefully under represented in his analysis. The DUmmies are getting taken for a balloon ride where Silver is the balloon pilot. That balloon is filled will hydrogen gas - soon to be a flaming Hindenburg.


28 posted on 11/01/2012 9:56:47 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel
Silver is betting his bias along with the Lib pollsters he swallows that borders on delusional like the rest of the clowns at DU.
For an example. Poll after poll including PPP and PMSNBC polls show very large margins..

I agree for the most part. The idea is using the past to predict the future. If the PPP and PMSNBC are way off on their results they will suffer a less predictive weighting next year. As you pointed out the trouble with using historical turnout/results is each year has its own unique turnout/results and it is near impossible to factor in such intangible things as storms, economy etc. etc.. There is an excellant article at RedState that discusses just those short comings. Here if you are interested (should pop)
29 posted on 11/01/2012 10:03:51 AM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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