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DUmmie FUnnies 11-01-12 (DUmmies Hug Their Nate Silver Security Blanket)
DUmmie FUnnies ^ | November 1, 2012 | DUmmies and PJ-Comix

Posted on 11/01/2012 7:40:15 AM PDT by PJ-Comix

Nate Silver is just $10 away from predicting that Obama has an 82.7% chance of winning!

Perhaps the most laughable aspect of this election season is the way the DUmmies have embraced the PRECISE prognostications of one Nate Silver. Silver's shtick isn't to merely announce poll results that are artificially weighted in favor of Democrats. Any run of the mill leftwing pollster, such as PPP, can do that. Silver takes it to the next level in which he dramatically announced to the exact decimal point the chances that Obama has of winning. As of Halloween, Silver has declared that Obama has exactly a 77.4% chance of winning. Not 77.3% or 77.5% chance but precisely 77.4%. Such precision must be completely scientific...or so the DUmmies believe which is why they continue to cling to their Nate Silver security blanket so fervently to block out any contrary polling data such as from Gallup or Rasmussen (which they embraced until they didn't like his results). If you check out DUmmieland you will see thread after thread in which the DUmmies continue to cite Nate Silver's precise prognostications as if it were Holy Writ. However, let us take a look at this recent Nate Silver Security Blanket THREAD, "Nate Silver has Obama up." A psychological benefit for the DUmmies is that even if Obama loses they can cry vote fraud because Nate Silver declared he had a 77.4% chance of winning. So let us now watch the DUmmies cling to their Nate Silver security blanket in Bolshevik Red while the commentary of your humble correspondent, wondering if Bob Menendez requesting FEMA(le) aid, has changed that calculation to 77.3%, is in the [barackets]:

Nate Silver has Obama up

[And Dominican chicks also had Bob Menendez up.]

299 EV
77.4% Chance of winning

[There is a 77.4% chance of DUmmies already popping open their Freudenschade victory champagne bottles. And now on to the other DUmmies clinging fervently to their Nate Silver security blankets...]

Wow. Getting almost back to September levels!

[When the Bamster had a 77.5% chance of a Freudenschade victory.]

Great! Now I can relax.

[Yup! No need to even bother to vote because Obama has banked it...according to Nate Silver.]

Need constant assurance because it is difficult to hear all the spin throughout the day and wonder if Romney will win with all his lies.

[No need to worry, my little DUmmie. According to Nate Silver, you have only a 22.6% chance of melting down into an angry psychopathic vegetable.]

You never let your opponent see one sliver of daylight.

[That's what I call seeing the Silver lining.]

Good stuff. Sure hope it comes to be true.

[Bev Harrris is just $10 away from guaranteeing it.]

Just watched him tell Charlie Rose tonight that Obama is the winner based on his data.

[Keep telling the Democrats that victory is in the bag because that will be sure to lower the lazy RAT vote. Hey, I waited a long time to early vote yesterday but if I were a Democrat who listened to Nate Silver, I would have probably skipped the ordeal because he has declared it to be in the bag. Therefore I predict that there is a 77.4% chance that Nate Silver's prognostications will LOWER the Democrat turnout.]

Man I wish this thing was over.

[You are only 5 days away from no longer worshiping Nate Silver's zipper.]

Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Likely Obama! Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Lean Obama! And Florida back to toss-up!

[And I predict there that there is a 77.4% chance that in five days the DUmmies will be back to throw-up!]

The Quinnipiac poll should push him to 80% then!

[Actually 79.9% according to the infallible Nate Silver.]

Obama will probably drop to the mid-70s soon, thanks to a conveniently timed Rasmussen or Gravis poll.

[77.3% to be precise.]

Nate put the SurveyUSA (+3) OHIO poll for Obama into the model, but the new Quinnipiac poll to come out this morning is not in Nate's model yet. Obama is already at 78% in OHIO tonight, so maybe he will hit 80% in Nate's model tomorrow when he includes the new Quinnipiac poll.

[80.3% when you factor in the 7-11 coffee cup poll.]

Obama will break 80% tomorrow due to the Quinnipiac poll, I bet Things are looking better and better!

[There is a 77.4% chance that Obama will break 80% tomorrow. The mighty infallible Oz has spoken! Now lean back, DUmmies. Close your eyes and click your heels together three times and repeat after me..."There is a 77.4% chance that Obama will be re-elected."]


TOPICS: Humor
KEYWORDS: dummies; natesilver
I early voted yesterday and was HAPPY to see I had to WAIT about a half hour to vote. Many Democrats will look at the long lines and then give up trying. Hey, after all, Nate Silver predicted there is a 77.4% chance that Obama will win so why bother?

p.s. I early voted EARLY in the morning and the same polling place took well over an hour that afternoon. I know because that is when my wife went.

1 posted on 11/01/2012 7:40:23 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
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To: PJ-Comix

IBTP!


2 posted on 11/01/2012 7:42:09 AM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Romney is my choice.)
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To: Xenalyte; RMDupree; AlexW; CzarNicky; Mike Fieschko; motzman; codercpc; thingumbob; tje; ml1954; ...

PING!


3 posted on 11/01/2012 7:43:35 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: PJ-Comix

I really hope we are not setting ourselves up for a big time disappointment... The thought of 4 more years of zero is really starting to bring me down. How can it even be this close? sigh...


4 posted on 11/01/2012 7:45:00 AM PDT by wyowolf
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To: PJ-Comix

Top five!


5 posted on 11/01/2012 7:45:33 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: PJ-Comix
Nate Silver could be the new Jason Leopold. Maybe Pitt can hook up with him.

Looks rather thin and effeminate to me.

6 posted on 11/01/2012 7:46:57 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Silver Streak.)
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To: Charles Henrickson

top 10!


7 posted on 11/01/2012 7:48:30 AM PDT by glasseye
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To: Charles Henrickson
Nate Silver could be the new Jason Leopold.

It would be a close match if his lips could be touched up with rabid foam.

8 posted on 11/01/2012 7:49:53 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: PJ-Comix

Son of a gun, I looked it up, and it turns out this Nate Silver fella IS a homo! What a surprise!


9 posted on 11/01/2012 7:50:04 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Silver bells, Silver bells . . .)
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To: PJ-Comix

Worried they are right


10 posted on 11/01/2012 7:51:48 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Beware the worst Halloween nightmare, the "Comeback Kid".......)
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To: PJ-Comix
You never let your opponent see one sliver of daylight.

"In the game of chess you can never let your adversary see your pieces."

-Zapp Brannigan
11 posted on 11/01/2012 7:54:05 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: PJ-Comix
Nate Silver has Obama up

I bet he does.


12 posted on 11/01/2012 7:55:03 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (The First Gay President.)
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To: PJ-Comix
The Quinnipiac poll should push him to 80% then!

Oh my, they believe that pile of male bovine fecal matter? It was Dem plus 8 and then they weighted it! Would any of us believe a poll showing Romney narrowly ahead that was R+8?

13 posted on 11/01/2012 7:58:47 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: PJ-Comix

You can not post anything regarding a poll on any of the newsite message boards without a hoard of libs immediately screaming “Nate Silver” this and “Nate Silver” that. They seem to believe that Nate Silver has a direct line to the almighty which makes his prediction infallible. They’ve put all their eggs in the Nate Silver basket to such a degree that if Obama loses next Tuesday Silver better be hiring a body guard because there is going to be a lot of angry liberals looking to tar and feather him.


14 posted on 11/01/2012 8:04:58 AM PDT by apillar
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To: PJ-Comix

"Jason, it's me, Nate. Over here, behind the bush. Are you free?"


15 posted on 11/01/2012 8:05:52 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Leopold and Lib: The New Edition.)
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To: Charles Henrickson
I mentioned the PPP poll in this DUFU and that was BEFORE I saw this STORY in which PPP shows Obama gets just under 50% in VA despite using a poll ridiculously weighted in favor of the Democrats.
16 posted on 11/01/2012 8:06:41 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: PJ-Comix
We just got back from Las Vegas I didn’t see one single obama yard sign or bumper sticker, I did see several R/R signs. This guy says Nevada is leaning O.
17 posted on 11/01/2012 8:16:52 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: Charles Henrickson; PJ-Comix

I have always liked Mr. Silver’s analysis. I think he is wrong this time around, but I also think he loves numbers far more than politics. Selling his baseball statistic formulas for a tidy sum shows me he at least has the capability to understand and use statistics and probability. He described himself as “Libertarian that finds he more often sides with Dems”. Not sure how that happens, but his politics aside he doesn’t fudge his numbers once the season starts. Right or wrong results (probably wrong this time around as he has nothing in his formula to check the effects of weather during voting days. Something very real that always helps republicans) I respect his work. His transparency with his process makes me believe he is trying to be honest with the numbers. Whoever wins Silver won’t be celebrating he will be looking over the results to figure out which polls get beter weighting for next time and how his formula can be better.


18 posted on 11/01/2012 8:17:05 AM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: HenryArmitage
he doesn’t fudge his numbers. . . .

So to speak.

19 posted on 11/01/2012 8:20:12 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (You may want to rephrase that, considering his "orientation.")
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To: PJ-Comix

311 Romney 227 Obama


20 posted on 11/01/2012 8:22:53 AM PDT by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: PJ-Comix

>> It would be a close match if his lips could be touched up with rabid foam.

He looks like the type of fella whose lips are frequently touched up with something resembling rabid foam.


21 posted on 11/01/2012 8:23:28 AM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: PJ-Comix

The DUmmies have less tolerance for concern trolls than even FR. Not likely either they will have much tolerance for election day/day after schadenfreude trolls either, but it may be worth a try. Although one could theoretically be a schadenfreude troll by constantly wailing about the schadenfreuede going on at FR, and saying things like “it sucks to be us” etc.


22 posted on 11/01/2012 8:30:58 AM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: PJ-Comix

I was the first one to cast my vote today for R/R at 7 am. No lines yet :-)


23 posted on 11/01/2012 8:42:15 AM PDT by showme_the_Glory (ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government)
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To: HerrBlucher

The most interesting thing reading this is that DU crowd is looking at the same exact data we are and have a completely different take on it. They are equal but opposite of FR. So the truth lies in the middle which isn’t such a happy place.


24 posted on 11/01/2012 8:50:35 AM PDT by paul544
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To: PJ-Comix

77.4% of all statistics cited on the Internet are just made up.


25 posted on 11/01/2012 9:11:28 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (Are we nearing the end of the Obamanation?)
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To: Charles Henrickson

Rush on the radio is now talking about Nate Silver!!!


26 posted on 11/01/2012 9:21:54 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: paul544

While its likely that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, it’s not necessarily true. It’s possible we could be right,100%.


27 posted on 11/01/2012 9:26:33 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - Orwell)
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To: HenryArmitage

Silver is betting his bias along with the Lib pollsters he swallows that borders on delusional like the rest of the clowns at DU.

For an example. Poll after poll including PPP and PMSNBC polls show very large margins of Indies breaking for Romney. I think the average is about 15% over Obama of all polls taken into account. What did Obama win the Independents vote by in 2008? I recall he won it by 7% to 8% over McCain and about the difference in the presidential 2008 election. If the polls are shown to be correct in a few days, that is about a 22% to 23% Indy swing from 2008 and in favor of Romney.

The liberal pollsters and Silver “think” that the Dims will show up voting at the same rate or even more than 2008, and that the Rs won’t increase their numbers but even be less than in 2008 to include the Independents who are woefully under represented in his analysis. The DUmmies are getting taken for a balloon ride where Silver is the balloon pilot. That balloon is filled will hydrogen gas - soon to be a flaming Hindenburg.


28 posted on 11/01/2012 9:56:47 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel
Silver is betting his bias along with the Lib pollsters he swallows that borders on delusional like the rest of the clowns at DU.
For an example. Poll after poll including PPP and PMSNBC polls show very large margins..

I agree for the most part. The idea is using the past to predict the future. If the PPP and PMSNBC are way off on their results they will suffer a less predictive weighting next year. As you pointed out the trouble with using historical turnout/results is each year has its own unique turnout/results and it is near impossible to factor in such intangible things as storms, economy etc. etc.. There is an excellant article at RedState that discusses just those short comings. Here if you are interested (should pop)
29 posted on 11/01/2012 10:03:51 AM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: HenryArmitage
Just in case you haven't seen, more bad news for Obama and Silver.

Pew: Yup, Romney's Leading in Early Voting [Confirms Gallup]

30 posted on 11/01/2012 10:20:12 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

I had NOT seen that. Very interesting indeed! Although I tend not to give a damn about national numbers as we are in an EV battle. Now being ahead in swing states early voting, that would be telling, I would think. From what i have seen from swing states, early voting looks tight but way down for Dems from 2008 numbers. Have you been seeing the same thing?


31 posted on 11/01/2012 10:24:54 AM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: HenryArmitage

I think it is likely indicative across the board.

I usually look for LS’s posts since he watches the numbers closely from the key swing state Ohio. Still looks pretty good to me.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2952740/posts?page=14#14


32 posted on 11/01/2012 10:33:23 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: PJ-Comix

bump

Hey Democrats, you got this, it’s in the bag, stay home, relax with Chianti and fava beans


33 posted on 11/01/2012 12:18:20 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Charles Henrickson

Lib Poll Pope is buttering up the liberals for a mighty revelation on Election Night.


34 posted on 11/01/2012 12:22:59 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Charles Henrickson

Don’t you realize that is Pure Genius that we are looking at there Charles?
I mean the glasses alone.....


35 posted on 11/01/2012 2:19:33 PM PDT by mowowie
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To: PJ-Comix

I early voted today and had no wait at all.


36 posted on 11/01/2012 3:17:51 PM PDT by Choose Ye This Day (There's no shame in attacking a criminal's bean bag. -- Ron Swanson)
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To: wyowolf
I really hope we are not setting ourselves up for a big time disappointment...

While getting cocky about an outcome that you want so badly is a sure sign that you will lose (Supreme Court Obamacare decision, Casey Anthony Trial), don't fall for anything that the Libs pull out of their butts. The freaks at DU would celebrate the "Psychic Friends Network" predictions of a 77.4% chance for O if it meant they could escape reality for a little while.

Early voter turnout doesn't belong to Libs no matter what the talking heads say.

37 posted on 11/02/2012 3:38:22 AM PDT by submarinerswife (Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results~Einstein)
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To: Charles Henrickson

Who the hell is this guy? Does he have a reputation for correct polling data and where does he get any amount of credibility? Never heard of him. Thought he was another whacked out Kos blogger.


38 posted on 11/02/2012 3:40:48 AM PDT by submarinerswife (Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results~Einstein)
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To: Charles Henrickson

LOL OMG you had me spitting coffee! You so bad, Charles!


39 posted on 11/02/2012 3:43:15 AM PDT by submarinerswife (Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results~Einstein)
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To: Nervous Tick

LOL you and Charles have me rolling. STOP! This is a serious subject! DU minions aren’t throwing them selves off of a cliff because of Nate’s analysis!


40 posted on 11/02/2012 3:48:14 AM PDT by submarinerswife (Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results~Einstein)
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To: wyowolf

You go to court.

The Judge, prosecutor, your defense atty, every member in the jury, the bailiffs, 35 of the 36 court witnesses are against you.

Only one witness says you are innocent.

Despite all that-you still manage to break even.

Yes that’s what being a Republican is like.

That we get more than 20%, shows how bad they are.


41 posted on 11/02/2012 5:11:14 PM PDT by NoLibZone (I know what it is to be Black,to be hated for who I am, more so than Whoppi does. I'm a Republican.)
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