The Folly of David Axelrod’s Turnout Model

Battleground Watch ^ | 10/29/2012 | Keith Backer

[mojito]

Much of this blog is spent arguing — persuasively I hope — why the polling data and get out the vote activities favor Mitt Romney this election cycle. But if President Obama wins re-election where could all of this analysis have erred?

Possibly the final remaining question that will determine the election outcome is whether Obama campaign manager David Axelrod is correct on the racial composition of the electorate being 72% White or whether is he fooling both himself and his acolytes in the media? President Obama regularly polls with national support among Whites as low as between 36 – 38%. If Axelrod is correct then Barack Obama has a good chance to eek out a close re-election. But if Axelrod is wrong on the electorate composition and Whites make up closer to 75% of voters then not only will Barack Obama lose this election, he could lose it badly with a final tally in the area of 338 to 200 electoral votes.

The entire Obama campaign is predicated on a voting public with a racial composition that in my opinion is highly unlikely to appear in 2012. The Obama campaign has revealed their assumption that White voters will only comprise 72% of the national voting public this year.

[mojito]

Interesting article. Most pollsters are still using a model that's closer to 2008 than 2010.

I think election night is gonna look a lot like 2010.

[gundog]

With fires.

[paudio]

A good article.The discussions are great too.

[lstanle]

"I think election night is gonna look a lot like 2010. "

I'm all for that. Lets do 2010 all over again.

[Bob]

I think election night is gonna look a lot like 2010.

While a 2010-style result would be good, I'd much rather see something more like the 1984 result. :=)

[nascarnation]

I always thought Baraq and Axlegrease were like a heavyweight champ and manager that never fought anybody with a winning record. All their wins were over chumps.

[fireman15]

Exactly right! Romney and Ryan are not chumps, they will fight this hard all the way through the elections.

[neverdem]

While a 2010-style result would be good, I'd much rather see something more like the 1984 result. :=)

Don't be surprised. Obama has been a disaster in so many more ways than one.

[hoosiermama]

Remember the “silent majority”? Each time they tried to speak up they were met with insults (Teabaggers-Birthers etc). They may have “sat down and shut up” but they are seizing mad and will take “revenge” at the polls....Just wait! BO will get his revenge, but it's not what he thinks it is.

[bert]

So, At the base level, Axlerod is a racist