Skip to comments.Skewed Polls And Their Use To Sway The Election
Posted on 09/20/2012 4:49:05 AM PDT by LD Jackson
Throughout this election cycle, I have often wondered how it could be as close as it seems to be. Looking at the record of President Obama, which he can not run on, I have often marveled that he would even attempt to run for reelection, given at the dismal failure he has been. But, of course, he doesn't seem himself as a dismal failure and tells us he needs more time to make the changes he wants to make to America. And why wouldn't he run, given that he has the media in his back pocket. They consistently run interference for him, as is shown by the way they report on every little word spoken by Mitt Romney, but Obama's own failures go unspoken.
For weeks, the polls being taken across the country have shown the race to be a very close one. President Obama and Mitt Romney are hanging tough with each other and neither one has been able to pull ahead and get out of the margin of error. For the most part, I believe the polls, in that it is clearly going to be a close race. Even though Mitt Romney should be winning in a landslide, I don't expect that to happen. If he wins, it is going to be a close win, unless something happens between now and November 6 to boost his standings. A series of good debates would do the trick, so there is hope.
As I was driving to work this morning, I turned on NPR to listen to the news at the bottom of the hour and I was somewhat discouraged to hear their top story. According to a new poll published by Pew, President Obama now has a commanding 8 point lead over Mitt Romney, 51% to 43%. It also shows Obama leading Romney in Wisconsin by 14 points. With NPR being a liberal media outlet, I wasn't surprised to hear them reporting on this story. Of course, they want to make sure their listeners know Obama is pulling ahead in the race. The best thing they could hope for is to discourage conservatives from turning out in droves to vote for Mitt Romney. After all, what's the use, if President Obama is leading by a good margin?
As I am with any poll, I was skeptical of the results. Polls are easily skewed and can be made to show the results desired by the pollster. Therefore, I went looking for some research and background on the Pew poll and sure enough, I found evidence that the poll is more than a little off the mark.
(Examiner)The new Pew Research poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney down eight points to President Obama. The poll reports Obama at 51 percent and Romney at 43 percent, if the officially reported results are to be believed. The poll surveyed 2424 registered voters, of which 2192 were likely voters. The poll, which was conducted between September 12-16, has a margin of error of 2.4 percent. With the data from this poll unskewed, Mitt Romney has a 49 percent to 46 percent lead.This isn't the first time we have seen polls that were skewed in favor of President Obama. The media has been full of them this election cycle, which is one of the reasons why I distrust both the media and the pollsters so much. If there is a pollster I do trust, it would be Scott Rasmussen. Here is what the Pew poll looks like, if you remove the skewed data.
Among the sample of 2424 registered voters, the Pew Research poll surveyed 717 Republicans, 869 Democrats and 757 independent voters. This means the sample included about 30.6 percent Republicans, 37.1 percent Democrats and 32.3 percent independents. So the sample itself included 6.5 percent more Democrats than independents, in stark contrast to the Rasmussen measurement of the partisan make up of the electorate that establishes Republicans having 4.3 percent more voters than Democrats. That is a 10.8 percent swing or skew in this polling sample, which is what results in the 8 percent lead for Obama.
When the data from the Pew Research poll is unskewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan affiliations showed by Rasmussen's extensive data results on that issue, the overall picture of the race is different. With Republicans weighted 37.6 percent, Democrats at 33.3 percent and Independents at 29.2 percent, the results calculate to Romney leading Obama by a 49 percent to 46 percent with about seven percent undecided. A large majority of the undecided voters, who usually break for the challenger in a presidential race involving the incumbent president, can be expected to swing toward Romney and lead to a likely Romney majority on election day according to this polling data.I'll not be so bold as to predict the outcome of the November election. I hope Mitt Romney wins, for the sake of our country, but there is not guarantee he will. I do know I am not ready to throw in the towel and say he can't win, especially on the strength of the polls we are seeing. The people who conduct these polls are clearly trying to persuade with their results, not give us the truth. If you want to see what an unbiased poll looks like, check this out.
(Rasmussen) The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 46% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.I still believe Mitt Romney has a good chance of defeating President Obama. It may not happen, but I contend this race is far from over. We should treat it as such and keep hammering on Obama's record and the real and stark differences between the two candidates. We should also remember the only poll that really counts will be held on November 6.
When leaners are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
A form of mind games.
A glaring error in the posting: There aren’t more DIMs then GOPers.
Reverse that: There aren’t more GOPers than Devilcrats
National polls don’t matter when most states have numbers that easily lean towards democrats or republicans. There are states that can be counted on to come through for Obama, and there are others that can easily be counted on the Romney side. Examples, Texas and California can be taken out of those national polls, as well as NY and Massachussetts, and others that are very reliably democrat states.
The polls that count are the state polls in those that are deemed the swing states, which are the ones that decide the outcome of the presidential races. Polls from those states would be a better indicator of how an election might turn out.
Truth 1. Pollsters are businessmen. Nobody does this for nothing.
Truth 2. Pollsters are in the polling business to make money.
Truth 3. Polling business requires returning customers.
Truth 4. To realize return or referral customers, the customer must feel they got their money’s worth.
Truth 5. What businessman would sell the customer avocados when the customer asked for oranges? Remember, in business the customer is king. Without a customer there is no business. The political elites of both sides use this not only to shape public opinion (because Americans love winners) but also to energize the base and to keep them revved up.
Truth 6. Polling is not spreadsheet derived but instead it is database derived. It is not just the tabulation that is important, but the query formula that uses variables to obtain a result. Consider simple algebraic equations.
Truth 7. Old saying about accounting. Liars figure and figures lie. The public is being played constantly by the establishment pied pipers.
Read yesterday that with leaners Gallup has a 45/45 tie. The polls should be sampled the same way,equal. Makes 8 points turn into 1 point in the case of the Pew poll well within the MOE.
This is a great site.
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