Actually the turnout number for 2010 was only +1.4% R IIRC, the current ras party affiliation number is +4.3 R, so polls using a +8% D models could be off by 12%.
WHen you look at the spread sheet is is interesting how close the ‘rebalanced’/normalized numbers are...
So in 2010, even though the R turnout was only slightly higher, it was a GOP blow out because all the independents voted against the D’s?
Is that the correct way to understand that data point?