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Why is the New York Times, Nate Silver apoplectic over a local poll from Michigan?
coachisright.com ^ | Sept. 3, 2012 | Kevin “Coach” Collins

Posted on 09/03/2012 9:50:53 AM PDT by jmaroneps37

Last week we got a report on a Mitchell poll from Michigan that has the New York Times swinging off the rafters. The Grey Lady got so apoplectic over the results because they showed Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied at 47/47 in Michigan.

Writing his rebuttal to this “outrage” the Times’ Nate Silver cited another poll that upon closer review provides virtually the same results. Silver’s new best friends at the Lansing-based EPIC-MRA polling company say Obama leads 49/46 with a 2.6 +/- Margin of Error which is all but the same thing.

That the EPIC-MRA poll conducted in July showed Obama leading Romney in Michigan by 48%-42% didn’t seem significant enough for to the Times to mention. In his report the EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn ( yes that’s his real name) said Romney leads by 13 points among Independent voters just 48/47 among men and trailed by only 51/47 with women.

Silver didn’t like the Mitchell poll’s decision to use an African American turn out of eight percent because it was too low, but liked EPIC-MRA’s setting African-American turnout at 10%.

Silver scoffed at Mitchell’s finding of Obama leading 73/26 among African Americans. Nevertheless Silver’s favorite poll shows Obama winning African Americans by 91/7 and White voters standing with Romney 50/45. The 2008 CNN exit polls showed Obama winning African American Michiganders by a rate of 97/3 and losing White voters 51/47.

If Obama loses six points off his national African American vote and actually sees the turnout of Black voters drop from 12% to 10% of the total vote he is cooked. The 48/47 lead EPIC-MRA assigns to Romney has with men is quite suspicious.

Anyone who believes Barack Obama is now doing better with men than he did four years…

(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: michiganpolls; natesilver; newyorkslimes; newyorktimes; partisanmediashills
There may be more statewide polls showing similar numbers but it will be hard to find them.
1 posted on 09/03/2012 9:50:58 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
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To: jmaroneps37

i called thirteen democrats and 8 of them said they were voting for obozo.

looks like a landslide for the rats.

the percentage is too large to bother to compute.

Blessings, bobo


2 posted on 09/03/2012 10:05:05 AM PDT by bobo1
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To: jmaroneps37

“Throw a rock into a pack of dogs, and the one that yelps is the one that got hit.”


3 posted on 09/03/2012 10:10:23 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: cripplecreek; Perdogg; Kevmo; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ...

Thanks jmaroneps37.

The level of enthusiasm around here for Zero is quite noticeably lower than it was in 2008. There’s just no question about it. The nasty anti-McCain comments have not been replaced by nasty anti-Romney comments. The usual a-holes and idiots have the Obama-Biden signs in their yards, and frankly, I hope their houses accidentally burn down with them in it. See, that’s a sample of the kind of nasty comments I remember from 2008.

The number of Demagogic Party bumperstickers is lower, but tend to be seen on cars with LOTS of stupid political stance bumperstickers. It reminds me of that house on Jackson in Grand Haven that, years ago, was completely covered with the owner’s nutty ramblings. It peaked with his addition of a sign in the front yard. Then he sold (or died, or maybe his neighbors killed him) and it became just another house, hard to remember which one it was, really. :’)

Here’s another thing for zipheads at the Slimes to have a stroke about:

Mitt Romney gains traction among Latino voters
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/gop/2926059/posts


4 posted on 09/03/2012 10:14:07 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: jmaroneps37
The NYT’s martyr support of the maladroit black Obama has not been compensated by the maladroit homosexual Obama.

The evil Commie (yeah redundant) Times loves all things harmful to America but it's getting harder to pay the bills with intelligence insulting perfidy...even the dumass subscribers have issues with overly transparent politically sullied mendacity above the fold and every page following that tries to rationalize their financial suicides for Lenin's “greater good.”

The capacity for Leftist stupidity among the arbitrarily anointed intellectual elite has always been a challenge for gifted psycho historians to describe—some call it hyper altruism—a mental illness born of intentional negative personal displacement which leads to the self genocides of lemmings and March hares when a drone in their ranks decides to lead from ignorant boredom alone.

5 posted on 09/03/2012 10:14:10 AM PDT by Happy Rain ("Who needs Michelle? The MSM keep Obama satisfied.")
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To: jmaroneps37

Silver is a left-wing hack and a form Kos Kid. He scoffs at Rasmussen and has no problem with any media polls or PPP. The only reason he has any relevancy is because he was off one state in 2008. He was way off in the 2010 house races.


6 posted on 09/03/2012 10:18:42 AM PDT by middlegeorgian
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To: jmaroneps37

Quite frankly, Nate Silver is the ONLY poll analyst I trust. He called 50 of 51 States/DC in 2008. He was ded on with the GOP surge in 2010. Putting emotions and politics aside and just looking at the results of analysis, he is, hands down, the best.


7 posted on 09/03/2012 11:04:33 AM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: jmaroneps37
Silver scoffed at Mitchell’s finding of Obama leading 73/26 among African Americans.

If those numbers are even halfway correct, then the president is toast. McCain took, what, 6% of the black vote in '08?

8 posted on 09/03/2012 11:26:53 AM PDT by JerseyanExile
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To: RIghtwardHo

Nah he’s overrated


9 posted on 09/03/2012 11:27:53 AM PDT by bjcoop
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To: Springman; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; madison10; ...
I have no use for Romney but I still expect him to win Michigan.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
10 posted on 09/03/2012 11:34:47 AM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: RIghtwardHo
He called 52 seats for the Republicans in 2010. I don't see that as some amazing feat compared to other election prognosticators.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/27/for-democrats-losing-the-house-is-not-inevitable-just-very-likely/

Patrick Ishmael at HotAir was closer

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/10/25/eight-days-out-gop-still-poised-to-gain-60-house-seats/

11 posted on 09/03/2012 11:37:18 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: jmaroneps37

Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com.

In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.

"Pretty sure Romney would win today if the election were held by robopoll. Otherwise kind of unclear."

https://mobile.twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight

12 posted on 09/03/2012 11:37:48 AM PDT by kcvl
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To: jmaroneps37

Silver (who grew up in East Lansing) should know that the Mitchell Polls are usually among the closest for the election. He’s letting his partisanship get in the way of his analysis.


13 posted on 09/03/2012 11:49:52 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Silver’s not bad, but that was a stupid article he wrote dismissing the Mitchell polls simply because it’s not a national poll. Mitchell and EPIC/MRA are two longtime used polls here in Michigan. Mitchell usually gets it close.


14 posted on 09/03/2012 11:57:02 AM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: bobo1
Actually, that 47% even split is all democrats in the poll.8^)

I'm just sayin' ...

15 posted on 09/03/2012 12:00:37 PM PDT by exnavy (The time is upon us, fish or cut bait, may God guide your heart.)
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To: exnavy

isn’t it great!

when you look at who they are polling, they twist it up so bad that they try to make it look best for the person they are supporting.

i am old, i remember when they tried that with Reagan against carter.

it was a dead heat. Reagan destroyed carter. polls are for pollsters, pollsters are liars, they only give the correct results the day before, so they won’t look like buffoons.

otherwise, they try to manipulate the public.

ya think that the majority of the people changed their mind a day before the election to put Ronald Reagan in office?

the MSM are liars.

Blessings, bobo


16 posted on 09/03/2012 12:27:29 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: Happy Rain
The capacity for Leftist stupidity among the arbitrarily anointed intellectual elite has always been a challenge for gifted psycho historians to describe—some call it hyper altruism—a mental illness born of intentional negative personal displacement which leads to the self genocides of lemmings and March hares when a drone in their ranks decides to lead from ignorant boredom alone.

William F. Buckley, in a long-ago National Review piece, called it "moral elephantiasis."

Google now reveals that he wasn't the first to conjoin this pair of words.

17 posted on 09/03/2012 12:32:51 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Could you please give a reference to your post. Thanks!


18 posted on 09/03/2012 2:43:46 PM PDT by netmilsmom (Romney scares me. Obama is the freaking nightmare that is so bad you are afraid to go back to sleep)
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