Born and raised in Iowa!
Right, Mitt “won!”
So if anyone else drops out, who gets their votes? Mitt? Not no, but hell no!
Mitt has a percentage problem — 25% maximum support gets Mitt nothing; by week’s end, Santorum will surpass any lead Mitt thinks he gained from this “win” in Iowa.
I believe there’s a strong case that many Freepers heads will be exploding in the next two months. Mitt can loose but most people don’t take into account all the work he’s done to win. Let’s look at the primary schedule:
January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus)
— Mitt wins with a two week blitz
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary)
— Can be a surprising state but unlikely to swing too far from Mitt in a week. Maybe a smaller win can be spun as a loss.
January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)
— Best chance to slow Mitt - but he’s working the state hard and has Establishment and some Tea Party support
January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)
— Newt could win the state but if he didn’t win SC, I’d be very surprised to see his numbers hold. FL has not been in the business of picking new front runners.
February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)
— Large Mormon state and Romney is already working it. If Gingrich is tanking, we’re likely to see Romney break into the high 30’s.
February 411, 2012 Maine (caucus)
— Not a conservative bastion and likely friendly to a NE liberal republican
February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)
— Last I saw Gingrich was killing it here, could keep him in the game (if he’s still in the game)
— No thoughts here other than Romney’s got a ground game, Pawlenty, and (if Freeper conspiracy is right) Bachman
— Show me
February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)
— Mitt’s got to have some family ties here that can help.
Don’t think Mitt is unstoppable, but I can see so many ways he can win and very few for Gingrich or Santorum. I guess it’s easy for me - when Cain left the race I stopped “Waiting for Superman” and got more analytical. I get it that people get mad when you call it in the opening plays of the first quarter. I do think we need to focus in part on “what if” Mitt wins and how to make the best of it. We’ll need much more than a conservative VP to act as a band-aid. We’ll need to primary out a number of liberal congress critters to make it right.