Posted on 08/19/2009 3:26:57 AM PDT by jay1949
Hearing from some very good national R sources that the NRCC was polling the 9th district in the last few weeks. Apparently the environment is so bad out there that Delegate Terry Kilgore is leading Congressman Rick Boucher by 6 points!
Background posts: "Boucher (D-VA9) Vacillates On Health Care Reform" - - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2306593/posts
"Boucher Responds To Carbon Tax Critics" - - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2290344/posts
(Excerpt) Read more at notlarrysabato.typepad.com ...
Bye, bye Ricky you and several of your Rat buddies here in the Commonwealth are going to get crushed. The revolution begins November 4, 2009 at the state level.
Hopefully Glenn Nye (Va Beach) will go with him.
I will pass out if Boucher is FINALLY sent home to the ‘private sector’...
Also say bye to Nye, Pereillo, Conolley and Senator Larry Flynt (Dim Webb)
Be prepared to pass out.
I didn’t even know that Kilgore was running and I am on FR. The GOP needs to start getting the word out now, that someone is running against Boucher again.
Rick Boucher.
I would love to see this bed-wetter retired once and for all.
He’s not formally running but there is a “Draft Kilgore” movement
I will keep the smelling salts handy as the returns roll in...
If these numbers are true and hold up (and Kilgore is successfully drafted), the Dems are going to have serious trouble even in districts with entrenched incumbents (though absent Boucher, this district would go GOP). This seat was held by Republican William Wampler, Sr. before Boucher defeated him in ‘82 (Wampler was in the Class of ‘52, lost after a single term and made a comeback in the anti-LBJ backlash of ‘66, holding it for the next 16 years). Wampler’s same-name son holds a State Senate seat within Boucher’s district (Bristol) for over 20 years (oddly, he’s never tried to run against him - as you’d think he’d like to beat the man who beat his dad).
Boucher has been exceptionally lucky, since after 1984, his closest race was in ‘94, but he still won 59-41%. He had no opponent in ‘08 (his last was in ‘06, when he annihilated State Del. Bill Carrico, 68-32%).
Surprised that a Dem has held the conservative 9th district for so long.
Power of incumbency, and mostly second-tier or desultory challengers. Had Wampler, Sr. won reelection in ‘82 (he only lost by less than 1%), the seat probably would’ve stayed in GOP hands for awhile longer. Of course, the district is sort of a Baja WV including some mining areas, so it’s not that difficult to see a Dem holding it (after all, Nick Joe Rahall sits in the district above Boucher’s in Southern WV, and he’s had that seat since 1976 (when he was the youngest member of Congress for 1977-79 - a distinction Wampler held, at 26, in the 83rd Congress), and that district now goes GOP for President - but still hasn’t voted for a GOP Congressman since 1956).
This is amazing. It’s like 1993 all over again. Perhaps some being polled are confusing Terry Kilgore with Jerry Kilgore.
They’re twin brothers (Terry wears a moustache to distinguish himself from Jerry). Terry is the State Delegate for the 1st district since 1994, the westernmost in the state (he’s actually closer to Nashville than to Richmond).
Okay let's get a couple of things straight. This is the blogger who first edited and posted the "macaca" video.
DO. NOT. TRUST. HIM.
That said, 1) no the people of the Fighting 9th would not confuse Jerry and Terry. And they don't think they talk funny.
And 2) I've not heard any rumblings about Terry running and would be quite surprised if he chose to do so. But I might add, quite pleasantly surprised.
Do you think Keith Fimian would take on Connolly again? I really liked him. Even my 20-something IDIOT son who voted for BHO voted for Fimian.
When that 11th CD was formed, Byrne won first time out, then Davis came in and held it thru last year. It has become more ‘blue’ but not totally and certainly not super liberal (’cept them thar furners who’ve moved in from New York/New England, etc). They put the most liberal areas of NOVA into Moron’s 8th district.
George Allen was on Hannity tonight!
I saw him there...sigh...
Actually they both used to have a mustache. Jerry shaved his off either when he became Secretary of Public Safety or Attorney General.
The ground is moving out from under these people.
Top GOP Leaders Recruiting Kilgore to Challenge Boucher
Aug. 19, 2009, 3:46 p.m.
By John McArdle
Roll Call Staff
RICHMOND, Va. — State Del. Terry Kilgore (R) acknowledged Wednesday that top Republican leaders in Washington, D.C., are encouraging him to challenge Rep. Rick Boucher (D) in the Southwestern Virginia 9th district next year.
If he were to run, Kilgore would immediately be considered a top recruit in the conservative district, where Republicans have been frustrated by their inability to field a top-tier candidate to challenge the popular 14-term Congressman.
House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) has talked to Kilgore “a couple of times” about a Congressional bid and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas) has called to talk to Kilgore about the possibility, although Kilgore said he and Sessions have been playing phone tag and have yet to have a conversation on the subject.
Kilgore said he has not seen a poll on his chances in the race.
First elected to the House of Delegates in 1993, Kilgore is the twin brother of former Virginia Attorney General Jerry Kilgore (R), who lost the 2005 gubernatorial race to now-Gov. Tim Kaine (D).
But for the moment Kilgore said he’s happy with his job in the House of Delegates and he is focused on Virginia’s state elections in November rather than any Congressional plans. Kilgore is running unopposed for re-election in November.
“Am I closing any doors? No. But I’ve got to wait until next year to do anything because we’ve got a lot going on [at the state level]. … We have the big [gubernatorial] race going and we’ve got to maintain control of the [state] House so I’m concentrating on that right now.”
Kilgore said he has a good relationship with Boucher and “we work quite well together.” But Kilgore also said there are issues, especially Boucher’s support of the cap-and-trade bill, where he has serious differences with the Congressman.
“For my district, the cap-and-trade bill is a non-starter because we represent a lot of coal interests,” Kilgore said. “I know he spoke about trying to make it better but we really don’t want a bill period until India and China step up to the plate.”
http://www.rollcall.com/news/37847-1.html
Great !!! I thought he might be the case, but I (unfortunately) moved out of that CD a few months ago, so am not quite up on things (not that I ever was).
Fimian is running again and I will not be suprised to see him win this seat back for the GOP. Obama is becoming toxic throughout the state and he is dragging down Rats all across it. We can call it the “Obozo Effect”.
I don’t even understand how Connolly was elected to County Supervisor or Chmn of that board, much less Congress. (and tho I supported Herrity for Chmn, Bulova is an improvement over Connolly).
I hope he IS voted out next year. May even have to move back to that district to help the cause ;)
I kept thinking he is so good and so calm sitting next to the nitwit Juan Williams from the Fox panel. I wanted to put tape on Williams’ mouth as he talked over Allen and Allen calmly handled him.
I still want him for President! Only one I really like that is out there! :)
I could always start a one person Draft Allen for President movement!
Come on Virginia, we need to take back our country!!!
LOL.
Kilgore hasn’t appeared on any lists of potential candidates that I’ve seen.
A top-tier recruit would be good to have for this seat. It was Obama’s weakest district in Virginia. Boucher is well entrenched.
Jay Katzen failed 2001 nominee for LT Guv carried the district over Tim Kaine but I don’t think he lived in it. Nevertheless he ran against Boucher in 2002 and was crushed. Last year Bocuher was unopposed.
The first I'd heard of it was last night. But I've confirmed it from several sources (in addition to the ones posted) that the NRCC polling is correct and that Terry is being encouraged to run. And he'd be a top tier candidate in that district.
Boucher will be hard to beat. He hasn't really had a serious challenger in years.
Jay Katzen's problem was that he had to move into the district to run. People in the 9th are territorial. I grew up there. Terry would be considered one of their own. Katzen was seen as an outsider.
How does your son rate Obozo now? Any buyer’s regret yet?
“Boucher will be hard to beat. He hasn’t really had a serious challenger in years.”
This time is looking different. His consituents have viciously mauled him at his town meetings and I think they are finally seeing through his smokescreen.
“How does your son rate Obozo now? Any buyer’s regret yet?”
interestingly ... he says he has no regret because he had no expectations! Says the only reason he voted for O was that he talked about education and, in searching JM/SP websites, there wasn’t anything to be found on that, HIS issue.
He now claims ‘at least’ BHO ‘saved’ scholarships for some kids in DC to attend private v. public school, overriding a Dem Congress. I’m not so sure about that.
And, he really didn’t believe SP was ready for prime time. (as if BHO and Biden were) He went with me to a M/P rally in Septemer and liked her then, so I don’t know that he didn’t fall prey to the MSM/SNL portrayals. But he does do his homework before voting. And comes to his own conclusions (however erroneous at times).
He did tell us that on election day he was in a long line and convinced a few people he got to chatting with to vote for Fimian. That should be an easier job in ‘10.
Last Fall was NOT a fun time in our house.
“Jay Katzen’s problem was that he had to move into the district to run. People in the 9th are territorial. I grew up there. Terry would be considered one of their own. Katzen was seen as an outsider.”
Speaking of which, it would have been easy for the GOP to split the 9th three ways, with the SE part going to Goode (which would have kept him safe, since it would have allowed him to shed Charlottesville and Albemarle County), the Roanoke area and a few counties to the west going to Goodlatte (who already represented part of Roanoke) and only the counties on the KY and WV borders staying in the 9th (which would be expanded north to include part of Loudon if they so desired, making it far less likely to elect a Democrat). The GOP decided to “play it safe” instead of going for the jugular. If the GOP can retake the VA legislature and governorship prior to the 2012 maps being drawn, I hope they grow a pair.
Of course, given changes in the state’s demographics, it would be wise for the GOP nowadays to draw a map with 7 safe GOP districts and 4 safe Democrat districts, instead of with 9 GOP CDs and 2 Democrat CDs as would have been possible after the 2000 Census. The 4 Democrat districts would be (i) a black-majority, overwhelmingly Democrat CD in the Tidewater (including Democrat parts of Virginia Beach that gave Nye the victory), (ii) a second black-majority, overwhelmingly Democrat CD, stretching from Richmond to the black areas in the eastern part of Goode’s old CD and the western parts of Forbes’s CD, (iii) an overwhelmingly Democrat CD in NOVA taking most of Moran’s current 8th and a few libera areas to its west, and (iv) a heavily Democrat district stretching from the Charlottesville area to Democrat parts of eastern Fairfax.
Check this out:
The suggestion was to stretch it up to Clarke County, not Loudoun, but still the idea was ludicrous.
North would have been different. I don't know if he could have won. But he would have had to move into the district, not have the district come to him.
Lol. One of the reasons I'm thinking I don't ever want kids.
Boucher has the strong support of the United Mine Workers and runs well ahead in coal-mining areas, like Buchanan County, which voted for McCain in 2008.
I have heard some support for running Carrico again, but he got shellacked on his first try, so I believe that is doubtful. It would be better to have a candidate from one of the coal counties - - Kilgore fits that description.
Nick Rahall looked at me with a straight face last week and said the town hall attendees were ‘terribly misinformed.”
Rahall would be the poster boy for term limits in WV if Robert Byrd wasn’t in the way. 34 years for Nicky by 2010 is long enough.
I agree
Right now theyre trying to find a way to put Joe Manchin into Byrd’s spot. I heard about that this week.
Ugh. Well, here’s hoping it backfires. WV has the unfortunate distinction of having gone the longest currently of any state without a GOP Senator. One hasn’t been elected since 1956 (and that for a 2-year term, the last time one won a 6-year term was in 1942, by the same guy who won in ‘56, Chapman Revercomb. Revercomb was beaten by, yup, Robert Byrd in ‘58).
The 06 candidate huh. I didn’t realize he was a Delegate. He picked the wrong year to run.
I’m planning a run against Boucher in 2010. Come by my (temporary) page for more info.
Uh, good luck.
the web address of my pages:
myspace.com/votefordustin
facebook.com/votefordustin
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