Posted on 09/29/2008 3:24:56 AM PDT by ari-freedom
US Congress to approve a government bailout of banks on/before 30 Sep 2008 Last Price: 17.6 \/40.4
The US Economy will go into Recession during 2008 Last Price: 13.0 \/ 7.0
The recession contract is basically free money. I had no clue it was at 20...that would’ve really made me consider throwing some money at it.
Q1 and Q2 were positive...in fact Q2 was 3.3% growth. The only way for us to enter a recession this year is to have negative growth for Q3 and Q4.
But I assume the point of your post is more about the correlation between the decrease in likelihood of “bailout”/socialism and the decrease in likelihood of recession.
I see Lehman units being sold off, Buffett putting money into Goldman, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo fighting over Wachovia...hopefully we’ll get a couple more deals announced tomorrow, and that’ll convince on the fence Republicans to revolt against the deal and let the market work.
exactly. if the economy was doomed we would see completely different numbers. And the American people would be begging for a bailout instead of the opposite.
My bet is on depression with deflation. There will be a huge CASH shortage. The banks do not have enough cash to cover a run. I doubt if the fed can print enough in time to pay off if we run the banks. They are already closing out credit card loans because people are way over their heads and no way to pay.
well you’re betting against the market
Market?? The market is over with. It will continue to be called a market. Markets have risks and rewards. Sucess and Failure. Free choice. The new “market” under Obama and the marxists will have none of that.
So why do they keep upping my credit limit? Twice in the last six months.
Maybe you have assets they can come after. Or maybe you have not maxed out like most people.
Just wanted to clear that up.
Believe it. Alot of people with “perfect” credit scores are at the limit. They can not borrow any more. They have 1st and 2nd mtgs. Lots of credit cards they have been using to pay regular bills. This ponzi scheme is going down.
That money didn't just disappear. Someone has it and will be filling the void left by these other institutions.
I don't know about other states but, if I went down to buy a car or a house here in Texas, the deal would be done TODAY.
You might want a few historical facts, though, before you drink the kool aid.
Since 1896, Americans have increased their personal credit indebtedness every single year. Rain, shine, good, bad, prosperity, depression. Never changed.
Since 1600---thats over 400 years, right?---England and/or America have as nations traditionally ran higher per capita debt than any other empires/nation states on the planet. Throughout that time, the assumed world leadership, never lost a war (no, Vietnam was a front in the Cold War), and have enjoyed the longest periods of prosperity in human history.
In the 1800s, some of the periods of most rapid growth were accompanied by large trade deficits, mostly capital (sound familiar?). The 1820s boom was in large part sponsored by the Brits; the 1850s boom too.
I don't like debt personally. I do everything I can to avoid it. But there are sufficient studies that show that neither Britain nor the U.S. have been substantially hurt by debt, ever. In fact, the Great Depression was brought on by an inadequate money supply combined with an incredibly stupid protectionist tax (Hawley-Smoot).
I am really not a great student of economics. Just a chief mate on an oil drilling supply ship. But I know a lot o mariners who are maxed to the limit. Some are getting the credit cards maxed and can not get any more to transfer balances to. Now they have to pay them off to get more credit but can not pay the 20% plus intrest. They are stuck.
You hit the problem. There is no cash. It is fiat currency. When the banks loan a mtg. They “create” credit. It is all on paper backed by the federal reserve. Trillions and trillions of it. There is very little actual printed currency.
As much as *some* would like us to think the economy has frozen, I have inside info indicating Sept. as being one of the busiest months this year.
If a person with bad credit or no down payment can’t currently get a loan.. TFB!
My bank wachovia just failed. It was taken over by citigroup.
Wolfcreek is that colorado. We have land up arond Ft. Collins at high alt.
BTW, when you pay off a card, Clark Howard ("the Consumer Warrior") says never close the account---it looks bad on your credit. Just keep it. Use it once a year and immediately pay it off. So I screwed up years ago by closing out two or three cards and closing the accounts.
Nope. Texas.
Wolf = spirit guide
Creek = the Native American tribe.
I axctually stole it from my Wife.
Like I said, the money’s (credit) there, just in other’s pockets.
Good on ya. Spirit water is a friend of mine.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.