Can Obama Really Win North Carolina?

North Carolina has emerged as one of the more interesting swing states in the election this year. Last year, few thought it would be in play. It's gone to the Republican Presidential candidate in every election since 1976. It's a state most figured would be safe for the Republicans. Instead, we now have several polls showing the race as very close, as evident by the two latest polls:

* Rasmussen 07.15-07.15 - McCain 47%, Obama 45% * SurveyUSA 07.12-07.14 - McCain 50%, Obama 45%

We already know that Obama is competing in the state. He has already run ads in it and has listed it among the states his campaign is viewing as battleground states. We don't know how John McCain will respond. One view is that with the state so close, he has no choice but to spend time and money to defend it. Another view is, if he is going to lose North Carolina, it will probably be part of a larger Obama landslide win, so McCain shouldn't defend it and should continue to focus his resources on Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and the other "classic" swing states.

In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry in North Carolina, 56% to 44%. Whites made up 71% of the electorate, and Bush won them 73% to 27%. Blacks made up 26% of the electorate, and Kerry won them 85% to 14%. 3% of the electorate was Hispanic or other. Kerry got roughly 80% of the other vote.

So under what scenario can Obama win? We can assume that African American turnout will increase in North Carolina this year because of the historic nature of Obama's candidacy and because he is investing big in turning out the state's black vote. We can also assume that the Hispanic/other vote will, in the least, stay the same. There isn't much reason to think the white vote will increase, as all data shows that white voters are not as enthusiastic about John McCain this year as they were for Bush in 2004.

So let's say, then, that African Americans end up accounting for 30% of the North Carolina electorate this year, whites account for 67% of the vote, and 3% falls into Hispanic/other. If Obama gets 95% of the African American vote, and he very easily could, that puts him at 28.5% of the vote. Now, Kerry got 27% of the white vote. The SurveyUSA poll has Obama getting 31% of the white vote. Let's say that holds, and Obama finishes with 31% of the white vote. That gives him another 20.77% of the vote, bringing his total to 49.27%. Now, let's assume he gets 65% of the Hispanic/other vote (remember, Kerry got close to 80% of this vote in 2004). That adds another 1.95% to his vote total, bringing his final vote to 51.22% of the vote, ensuring a victory in the state. His chances would improve even more if Bob Barr managed to get 1% or more of the vote, or if he did better than 31% of the white vote (which is possible in a state like North Carolina that has several highly educated cities and a lot of young people, two of Obama's stronger groups), or if he gets African American turnout higher than 30%.

So to sum up, North Carolina is a state that McCain should absolutely take seriously. Obama has more than a slim chance of winning it. Assuming a 4% increase in African American turnout is far from crazy. It could actually be higher than that. But even if African American turnout is at 30%, Obama could get 51% of the vote or more, even if Bob Barr is not a factor.

North Carolina isn't a state that favors Obama as a few things have to go right for him to win it. But it is absolutely a state he can win under a fairly reasonable set of circumstances and one that the McCain campaign will have to pay attention to or risk losing.

The question should be “Can McCain win ANY state against Obama?”

I doubt he could even carry FL at this point.

That ‘Bush vs. Kerry’ crap is meaningless...there is no grassroots support for McCain like before. None. Nada. Zip. Zero.

Do you know anyone who is giving money to his campaign?

I don’t.

For McCain being such a crappy candidate how is he staying so close nationally, this early in the season? Republicans normally are double digits behind this time of the campaign season. I think democrats are in for a big surprise when the booths open up. We Americans don’t like having someone crammed down our throats like the MSM is doing right now with Obama, when we draw the curtain closed behind us, we don’t have to answer to anyone. I don’t care who our candidate is!!

A lot will depend upon what the gas prices are in November and where the stock market is at the time. I have heard some Democrats say they “can’t vote” for Obama. I have not heard any enthusiasm for McCain. I think many people around feel that there just isn’t anyone to rally around. Huckabee was popular with a lot of Democrats and Republicans in NC.

Do you know anyone who is giving money to his campaign?

I am. I don't want to wake up the day after the election and hear the words "President Barack Obama." I can't think of many worse horrors. (And frankly, the gloating of the mainstream media would be almost as bad.)

I'm not going to sit on my hands like a spoiled brat, stamp my feet, and cry, "I'm not voting for that RINO McCain." RINO he may be, but he beats a left-wing, naive, dangerous fool any day. I care about the future of this country too much to let Obama loose on it for four or eight years.

So you admit Obama is most likely going to win, you just want to feel better about yourself...that’s OK.

McCain’s only chance to sex up his campaign hinges on his VP selection. That’s about it. He might get some lukewarm blood flowing if he hits on a good choice.

ABB (anybody but Barack) won’t be hacking it this time.

It all depends on how much of the state is populated by morons on the level of those in Durham....

Remember Durham — Home of the black racists in pursuit of 3 innocent White Lacrosse players......

So you admit Obama is most likely going to win, you just want to feel better about yourself...that’s OK.

I "admit" (loaded word, there) nothing of the kind. In fact, I think McCain will win in a landslide. I think Obama might get 5-10 states, that's it. I just refuse to pout at home on election day, and I'd like to see McCain pull more than 45 states.

By the way, it isn't "anybody but Barack," it's McCain versus Obama. A clear choice -- for grownups, anyway.

"I think Obama might get 5-10 states, that's it."

Kerry carried 19 states (plus DC). Which 9-14 Kerry states do you think McCain can flip? He's currently trailing in the polls in every single one of them.

He might have a shot at Pennsylvania. Pawlenty as VP might give him a shot at Minnesota. Otherwise, his obvious strategy is to focus on trying to hold all the Bush states. That will keep him busy. Ohio will be close; the OP notes Obama's shot at taking North Carolina; and Obama has an even better shot at taking Virginia.

"McCain’s only chance to sex up his campaign hinges on his VP selection.

Agreed, but there aren't a lot of stellar choices out there. A pick like Duncan Hunter or Haley Barbour would mollify the base but gain no new ground for McCain.

He could roll the dice with a really unexpected pick. A VP like Colin Powell (presumably wouldn't do it) or Joe Lieberman would improve McCain's appeal to independents. He'd be gambling that the base, after screaming bloody murder, would end up having nowhere else to go. Or he might go after Clinton supporters by picking a woman, with the most unorthodox choices being Sarah Palin (strikingly young) or Carly Fiorina (no previous electoral experience).

Any of those picks might bring in a bonanza of votes. Any of them might also backfire horribly and lead to a crushing defeat.

My guess is that McCain won't even try to "sex up his campaign". He'll make a safe, conventional pick (probably a middle-aged white male current or former governor) and hope Obama does something stupid.

I’m a realist....I can’t imagine Obama’s support just dissolving away come Nov....so McCain has to do something more than “just keep it close”...that’s like waiting around for Fred to poop or get off the pot...and we all know how that turned out.

Where are his new votes going to come from?

With any luck, he takes Mitt as VP then drops out due to health concerns.

Then Mitt selects the governor of Alaska as VP, and we are back in business!

I have lived in NC all of my life and IMO there is no way Obama can win the state. For one reason, we have three major military bases that provide many of the jobs in Eastern NC. Obama's desire to cut the military and his all around lack of qualifications to be CIC will work against him. I think the polls are reflecting what people SAY that they are going to do in November rather than what they WILL do when they get in the voting booth.

Despite the fact that our state government is controlled by Democrats, NC is a fairly conservative state. In fact, the race for Governor is very tight right now and we have the best chance in many years of electing a Republican Governor. The current Governor, Mike Easley, is so unpopular that even the Democrats are publicly criticizing him.

"With any luck, he takes Mitt as VP then drops out due to health concerns.

Then Mitt selects the governor of Alaska as VP, and we are back in business!

LOL. I'll give you 10 out of 10 for creativity, but let's call that scenario a longshot.

I'm predicting "a safe, conventional pick", which would include Romney. (In the mold of picking the second-place contender, e.g. Reagan-Bush, Kerry-Edwards.) If the ticket is McCain-Romney, then I think Obama wins unless his support does indeed just dissolve away.

As for the talk about health concerns... McCain does have the occasional senior moment. He'll be vulnerable to jabs like "confused" and "out of touch", dog-whistling that he's too old. Nevertheless, he'll be the nominee unless, over the next several weeks, he suddenly skids several years further into senility, which is pretty unlikely.

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