Posted on 05/18/2008 1:06:02 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
Recent polls are showing trouble for Obama. His numbers are tanking at an unprecedented rate. As of late, a poll from ccAdvertising shows that Obama's numbers are way worse than any one of us thought. This company is mostly used by the GOP, but they have shown to be more accurate than other polls in the past. Still, I don't use these numbers in my map, but there's a point to be made after you see these numbers.
From May 1, 2008 through May 5, 2008, ccAdvertising completed a survey to a combined total of 90,000 homes in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania (10,000 homes from each state) extracted from the ccAdvertising database.
Results for McCain vs. Hillary and McCain vs. Obama. Scores are how much Hillary or Obama are ahead of McCain. +is a win for Hillary or Obama. -is a loss.
Hillary Obama Difference (for Obama from Hillary) California +15.82% +12.88% -2.94 Colorado -5.44 -1.98 +3.46 Florida -11.46 -25.52 -14.06 Illinois -2.29 +9.23 +11.52 Missouri +3.97 -10.61 -14.58 New Hampshire -5.9 -6.67 -0.77 New York +7.88 +1.31 -6.57 Ohio +1.02 -18.18 -19.2 Pennsylvania +7.51 -5.95 -13.46
From what I'm hearing on the ground and from Nebraska and Colorado is that there is ZERO chance of Obama carrying these. For some numbers, look at the Feb caucus where Obama took it 68% to 32%. In the May 13th non-binding primary, Obama won 49% to 46%. Either his numbers are tanking horribly or caucuses aren't a valid way to gauge voter preference. Some may argue that non-binding primaries don't mean anything. That same argument may be used for polls. But these are people that came out even though they knew it did not count. That leads one to believe that these people have firm commitments for their candidates. When people do things even when they don't have to, that shows true intentions. And you can bet they will vote in November.
So what is going on with Obama's numbers? No doubt they are tanking. I can no longer put CO, NM or FL in Obama's column. It's simply not realistic. And I never did put NE in Obama's column because I knew that was not realistic. If I put it in his column, I'd have to give Hillary the same chance as Obama. This goes for VA, NC & SC as well where they are polling identical in one case and nearly identical in others. I have doubts with Obama's capability to carry OH & PA, but we'll leave them alone for now.
Let's take a look at IA and WI.
On April 27 & 28, Obama was polling with these numbers against McCain.
IA: Obama vs. McCain: 49% vs. 41% (Obama +8%) (Research 2000) WI: Obama vs. McCain: 47% vs. 43% (Obama +4%) (U of WI)
On May 7th for WI and May 15th for IA.
IA: Obama vs. McCain: 44% vs. 42% (Obama +2%) (Rasmussen) WI: Obama vs. McCain: 43% vs. 47% (McCain +4%) (Rasmussen)
Obama went down 6% in IA and went down 8% in WI.
Yes, some of this can be due to different methodologies. But note that Rasmussen regularly polls Obama higher than reality. If you'll also note that there have been no recent polls in FL for a very long time. This is no coincidence. There are indications that neither Democrat has a really good chance of carrying that state because of the delegate removal fiasco. Hillary has a long shot. But Obama has no shot at all.
Let's see what Obama's map looks like today.
(more at source)
WI often “flirts around” and looks like it could go GOP for President but usually stays loyally to the plantation masters election after election. And to think how WI people hated slavery!
I’m having a hard time following..
Caucuses aren’t a valid way to gauge voter preference.
I still want Obama to get the nomination first - THEN we can talk about his demise.
According to Rove, caucuses are not good predictors of election results. Not that many people show up for caucuses, so those that elect nominees may well represent a minority of the party’s voters. This, he believes, gives Mohammed Barak delegates from states where the majority of Dem voters may not back him.
Lots of vote fraud in Milwaukee. Democrats have blocked requring a photo ID. Gore won WI by only 4,000 votes in 2000 and Kerry by 11,000 in 2004.
Ping FWIW
ya, let Obama get the nomination, then we can see him fall in a McGovern style landslide. And if we’re lucky, maybe Republicans will gain seats in Congress; he might hurt the down ballot races too.
No...! - not yet. He can tank in September.
Well, McCain does like to "reach across the aisle".
I do believe that pa and nj are voting blue, just like they have for 2 decades now.
Well, I am another one who worries about that, and I sincerely hope that we are wrong about an Obama/Clinton ticket.
A short video every American should view.
http://www.frugalsites.net/911/attack/
The numbers are in columns at the actual site and make more sense there. I don’t really see much evidence of Obama’s numbers tanking, but I do agree with the author’s view that Obama faces a tough electoral vote map.
There appears to be a direct correlation between KNOWLEDGE about Mr.& Mrs. Obama’s history and positions and his loss of support from NON-Black voters.....
There simply aren’t enough racist blacks, loony Leftists, white guilt self loathing assholes and Islamists in America to elect an Obama to the Presidency......
EXCEPT - an Obama running against McCain....
McCain is perhaps the ONLY candidate who could lose to Obama...
We’ll soon learn....
The rnc nor mccain have been demonstrably attempting to define bho as the flawed candidate he is. The conundrum the dems have is how to pull the tablecloth from that table without upsetting the place settings. Deep down, they know bho can not win the general....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pennsylvania.html
That aside, JSM beats both of them in Nov per those stats, with BHO being down 8 more electoral votes than HRC.
PA might be tough for Obama - lots of blue-collar white guys in PA and lots of them don’t like black folk.
I cried. How can any American watch that without crying.
For all the talk about national polls and Obama’s momentum etc, it still comes down to a handful of states.
It is hard not to look at Ohio and PA as being advantage McCain, while it is very hard to see Obama winning Florida or Missouri.
The only major Bush 04 state I could possibly see flipping besides Ohio is maybe Virginia, if Obama has a massive turnout or something. I just have a hard time seeing Ohio and PA voting for Obama over McCain. If it were Huckabee or Romney maybe, but McCain plays well in Ohio, PA, FL and MO. While at the same time, the south and west aren’t going to magically flip to Obama.
The Dems should have gotten the first hint when Obama won many of the Dem states he can’t possibly carry in the Fall, and lost a lot of states he MUST carry.
I would agree with one exception. NJ is hopelessly lost. We ran a conservative (Schundler) and lost. We ran a RINO (Kean) and lost. We’re done. Write us off. (Although we do send a lot of $ to the RNC and Nominees).
Why don't we seize the opportunity provided by the MSM's deification of Obama to permanently de-claw the IRS?
This post (<-click), while addressing taxes, helps to explain why government "leaders" like Obama are actually in contempt of the Constitution that they have sworn to defend, foolishly following in the footsteps of FDR's dirty federal spending politics. In fact, the article referenced below shows that Obama is the #1 federal spending proposer in the Senate for '08; Clinton is #2.
Obama, a big-shot federal spenderThe people need to reconnect with the Founder's division of federal and state government powers. The people then need to wise up to the major problem that the federal government is not operating within the restraints of the federal Constitution, particularly where constitutionally unauthorized federal spending is concerned.
The bottom line is that the people need to send big-shot, Constitution-ignoring federal spenders like Obama home as opposed to trying to send people like him to the Oval Office. The people need to get in the faces of the feds, demanding a stop to constitutionally unauthorized federal spending while appropriately lowering federal taxes - or get out of DC.
I said it before. If Clinton does very well against Obama in all of the remaining primaries, and the Michigan and Flordia delegates are seated, she has a good chance of taking the nomination. It would be controversial though.
I was convinced from the beginning that Clintons would get the nomination. I have only lately begun to waver but if I had to make a bet on it I would probably still bet Clintons.
The ticket that worries me is a McCain/Clintons ticket. McCain said he would take Democrats into his administration.
I have to agree with you on Pa.
That's my home state and I still have a home there near Valley Forge.
I am returning in the fall to help defeat Obama.
To me, that would be a stunning achievement to reverse 20 years of Democrat voting, but I am under no illusions.
Thank you for your post. - bill
Riots at the convention would be kind of nice.
Michelle Obama alienated a lot of people with her comments in Zanesville just before the Ohio primary, where she told the audience she could identify with the struggle of raising a family. After all, her daughters’ piano lessons, etc. cost $10,000 a year (that figure may not be in the link posted below but rather from other sources).
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/reiland/s_556214.html
When they called her an elitist she whined about that, too!
I agree 100%. All that you said, IMHO, points to Hillary being on the ticket.
While I definately see PA going for McCain, I see Obama taking NJ by 2-3%.
It’s been my opinion all along that Urkel will be easier to beat in the general election than Hillary.
NO WAY CAN HILLARY PULL THIS OFF AND GET THE NOD. It is possible and can not happen. The numbers are not there. The Magic Negro has it all locked up in the lock box.
There is as much chance of this happening as Ron Paul getting the Republican Nod. Same for a Hillary VP slot. She is going to stay a senator until the end of time. The days of the Clintons and the Bushes is SO OVER. Fear not! The Obama House has fallen on the Wicked Witch of the west. BUT, Hillary did the nation a real service by blooding Obama much like the Picadors weaken the bull before the Matador comes into the ring. For that we owe her thanks.
PA and OHB may have some Latter-Day-Copperheads that I had not thought about, but the Copperheads were loyal Democrats too.
This is your best case map, but I wonder about NM, IA, WI, and VA.
NM and IA I agree...but no way Obama wins VA against McCain.
Hillary could beat McCain in VA though.
Bttt
I used to hang out at an all-night diner about 5 or 6 years ago. Most of the clientele were middle aged white blue collar men, mostly Union, mostly auto worker types.
Listening to these guys talk, there were only two things they hated more than Republicans. Black people, and Muslims.
Lotsa guys like that in PA and OH.
Furthermore, it’s gonna hit like a ton of bricks when the Dems realize that Obama lost because of racism...when they see that it was racist DEMOCRATS that didn’t vote for him. Let’s see them blame THAT on the GOP...
(I’m sure they’ll find a way...)
I suspect the same thing will happen in Detroit.
Obama is not only polling badly in Pennsylvania but has fallen within the margin of error in New Jersey and New York. If he can’t carry New York and New Jersey, he’s toast.
I’m not convinced that Obama can take New Jersey.
I still see it as a 2-3 point win for Barry, but if NJ is called for McCain early in the evening, the election is over.
One might think so, but the 'rats have a potentially bottomless capacity for self-deception. That's why they are 'rats after all.
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