Posted on 11/06/2012 10:28:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Blumenthal warns:
[T]he initial results of the exit poll interviews have had frequent problems with non-response bias, a consistent discrepancy favoring the Democrats that has appeared to some degree in every presidential election since 1988. Usually the bias is small, but in 2004 it was just big enough to convince millions of Americans who saw the leaked results on the Internet that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush. It didn't work out that way.
The resulting uproar led the networks, beginning in 2006, to hold back the data from their news media clients in a sealed quarantine room on Election Day until 5 p.m. Eastern time. The quarantine means that any numbers purporting to be "exit polls" before 5 p.m. are almost certainly bogus.
Sarah Kliff's advice on exit polls:
Keep an eye on the demographics. [Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling] and [David Flaherty, CEO of the right-leaning Magellan Strategies] both say this is going to be one of the crucial things they’ll watch [tonight].
“Here in Colorado, for example, Latinos were 13 percent of the vote in 2008,” says Flaherty. “If it comes back at 5 pm, that they’re 18 or 20 percent of the vote, that would be a key observation. Then the folks in Chicago are going to be extremely pleased. If we see it at 9 percent, it might cause the Romney folks to start thinking that group isn’t as enthusiastic.”
Here’s Jensen’s take: “What I’m going to be looking out for are the demographics of who voted along racial and age lines. We Democratic pollsters think that the African American and younger voters will have as high turnout as they did in 2008. Republican pollsters are projecting enthusiasm won’t be there.”
I really sense the media liberals are going all out to keep hope alive so they don’t depress Dear Reader’s vote. They don’t want to lose what little audience they have by telling the truth and being blamed for the low turnout of their political party.
For example, illegals might not take the risk to vote if they suspect Romney is going to be in office and they will get caught. Students won’t bother getting out of bed...Liberals, dealing with their nasty mentalities, are easily depressed and hopeless.
It’s going to be interesting to see.
Why would they be in trouble because of the exit polling? Just wondering I’m trying to find everyone’s logic on this.
Who would you recommend to follow today on Twitter?
They could be right, their voters are dumber than stumps. Low information doesn’t quite cover it.
Where did you see / read Dan Rather’s comments?
Sounds interesting.
Nate Silver, Andrew Sullivan or pick your favorite leftist.
Well that will change the outcome.
It was Susan Esterich.
Thanks FRiend.
Ace of Spades and Michelle Malkin at the very least.
More heavy breathing from the left re exit polls.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/2012-exit-polls_n_2038617.html
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet. I’ve never been exit-polled in my life.
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