Posted on 01/11/2024 9:26:29 AM PST by GaltMeister
The idea of design and probable failure of “complex systems” is not new, but the author makes interesting points and I agree with him.
He focuses almost solely on the diversity push and declines in competency. That is no doubt a huge factor.
But outside of destructive diversity politics, Government is, at the same time, increasing complexity of systems, increasing demands on systems, AND making them less able to adapt/change in all ways.
There are no “free-markets” left in the USA. Everything from food to medicine, to energy, to financial markets to transport is manipulated and managed by a huge, bloated web of Federal rules and control. And it steadily grows bigger.
Its my own theory that the root cause is MONEY - particularly, printed, fiat, Federal Reserve money, which can be created by nothing and comes into being via debt. Its on auto-pilate and especially for Fed.gov - more debt has been how every problem is kicked into the future.
When that stops, all these systems crash.
You have a point with regulations but increasing technical complexity is not an issue. Competent technicians and engineers quickly learn and adept to technologies and complexity, it is an environment we thrive in.
Much of my work now is teaching modifications, real craft and engineers love new equipment and technologies, the core issue imho really is aptitude and competency.
Many students these days have no interest in how a thing works, they complain that they can just google it.. I so hate the phrase!
The VFD for that motor was labeled wrong inside the cabinet. He was sitting on his sweaty butt holding potentially energized three phase wires!
I looked at the print and found the source start. There was a dirty photo eye preventing control voltage starts on the correct VFD (Energized Drive) Had the wind blown or a few specs of dust off that sensor, he would have been instantly killed.
Today the trades schools won't even teach live circuits or AC power circuits. They are afraid of being sued.
You can't run a factory on 24 volt control alone. But that's where Allen Bradley and Siemens are today. Disasterous.
I am curious - who now chooses to work as a technician in nuclear plants these days? In the 1970s, it was likely considered a highly prestigious, intellectual job, sought after by highly competent people wanting to prove themselves and their status.
Because of a connection I have with universities, I meet a lot of Ivy League and top University students and highly intelligent young people. Besides an extremely small minority of older grad/PhD students focusing on nuclear sciences, NONE consider such an important field.
The vast majority pursue finance, consulting, law, government/NGO/paid-activism, or possibly computer science (commerce related)
My theory is that due to perverse incentives created by our printed, fiat monetary system, America's talent and energy is slowly pissed away on ultimately useless endeavors.
So you’re saying when the spit hits the spam, a desperate call goes out for an old white guy?
Or ChatGPT it.
I'm not sure that's true. It has been said that if a company has their very smartest programmer build a complex system, if that guy leaves, and the system breaks, you are left with a less capable programmer on staff who now must fix the problem that eluded the more capable programmer.
Even if that is a flawed example, we do have interlocking webs of complexity. It's not simply "the generator isn't working, find someone to fix it". The problems can be much bigger than that.
I'm thinking that AI will be relied upon to fix a lot of things that humans cannot fix. That will spiral too. We will soon live in a world that humans do not understand. We may already be there.
Not an engineering issue, but I would also point to the financial derivatives that are still left over from the 2008 crisis. No one seems to know the dollar value (it's big) and tracing ownership of the derivatives is a nightmare. It's trillions of dollars and it's so complex that no human understands what's really going on. That's another problem that AI might be able to help with. But, again, humans are living in a world that is so complex, we no longer understand it.
LOL, you just can’t google experience and skill.
This is the path to Idiocracy.
Agreed, just projecting that ATC chick.
This ain’t no upwardly mobile freeway
Oh no, this is The Road to Hell
You pretty much nailed it. The real challenges are of course still there, the required math and science skills have not changed but no one is really interested in the hard sciences it seems.
Basically everyone wants to be a Stoke Broker, Influencer or You Tube star.
I will add that when a younger individual starting life finds out what I do they often are quite impressed, but not so much as to ever want to learn it themselves. So many think it is just to hard, that is very disappointing to me.
Yep, and literally it is the “old white guy” guilty as charged.
I have taken now to warn my employer I will retire now sooner than later, they are not real fond of me saying that.
We have a process to address the issue of they guy or girl who creates a new complex “thing.” It is called Knowledge Transfer, there are whole procedures and processes developed for just that and works quite well. The problem has been few are interested anymore in the effort to capture the knowledge and even fewer are interested in learning from it.
Now add to that many who should use it to learn lack the aptitude and skills to master those learnings, that is the problem.
I Talk to metal men.
Tool an die guys. Custom metalwork guys. Hot pour smelters
Also talk to appliance guys and other repairs guys.
None of the aboveca. Find anyone e to take over their knowledge base. None. The guys are closing down.
The worst will be when nobody will know how to farm and grow food.
for later
Well played :)
For later indeed.
Currently, AI IS programmed that way. As soon as AI starts accessing real-world data in large quantities, it will quickly figure out that a lot of data it already had was incorrect.
Computers run on LOGIC circuits, after all.
Yes. I am cautiously optimistic that, while AI may originally be programmed with biases (”Climate Change is real”) it may actually grow and improve itself and with enough study of verified data, AI might arrive at the truth and then start letting people know just how much the humans have been lying about everything.
Similarly, if an AI can read a book and perform a thorough logical analysis of the contents, it may arrive at interesting conclusions: “I have analyzed the works of Karl Marx — and that guy was full of crap!”
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