Coronavirus live thread 1-27

freepers

[mrsmith]

“It’s showing up”

Not in DC or NYC.

[LilFarmer]

#BREAKING China virus death toll jumps to 106, nearly 1,300 new cases: govt

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Coronavirus&src=typed_query&f=live

[BusterDog]

“As far as I know, trying to contain a city of 11 million people is new to science.” This was how Dr. Gauden Galea, the World Health Organization’s country representative in China, described the situation facing the city of Wuhan when asked late last week for his update on the coronavirus outbreak.”

. . .

“I am now one of 11 million people in Wuhan who are living through this grand experiment, a measure that, Galea also said, shows “a very strong public health commitment and a willingness to take dramatic action.” From inside the curtain that now encloses my city, I wish to offer my thoughts on this “dramatic action,” and to judge what we have actually seen and experienced in terms of commitment to public health.”

. . .

“Everyone must understand, first of all, that this epidemic was allowed to spread for a period of more than forty days before any of the abovementioned cities were closed off, or any decisive action taken. In fact, if we look at the main efforts undertaken by the leadership, and by provincial and city governments in particular, these were focused mostly not on the containment of the epidemic itself, but on the containment and suppression of information about the disease.”

http://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/

[eyedigress]

What is the source of that Twitter?

[BusterDog]

The number of official cases in Wuhan went from 692 to 1590 in one day— Steve Lookner (@lookner) January 28, 2020

[grey_whiskers]

Oh sh!t. My first websearch showed Lopinavir and Ritonavir.

My first search for "Lopinavir cost" showed a $375 / 160 mL *cash* price (www.drugs.com › Price Guide › lopinavir/ritonavir).

My first search for "Ritonavir cost" showed a price of $95 / 30 tablets (www.drugs.com › Price Guide › ritonavir).

The first dosage I found -- naiive, as this is I presume for AIDS, so the dosage might be different for coronavirus -- would be 800 mg lopinavir/day and 200 mg ritonavir...

Sounds (handwaving) *rather* spendy, eh?

[Black Agnes]

China makes the stuff so their cost is probably...cost.

OUR cost on the other hand...

[BusterDog]

100,000 Hospital Beds to be Added in Hubei, China, Ground Zero of Coronavirus Outbreak

https://www.theepochtimes.com/100000-hospital-beds-to-be-added-in-hubei-china-ground-zero-of-coronavirus-outbreak_3217726.html

[BusterDog]

“Taiwan on Monday tightened curbs on Chinese visitors to the island amid the coronavirus outbreak and said it will make sure people are not breaking a temporary ban on exporting face masks.”

http://news.trust.org/item/20200127154757-nicyu/

[BusterDog]

“By using an estimate of 10 days from exposure to detection and an effective population of 20 million people in Wuhan catchment area the estimated median size of the Wuhan outbreak is 26,200 infections [95% CI: 19,200-34,800]. Technical details are in the full report available below. “

https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html

[Black Agnes]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ffj.3252

[palmer]

That jump and the forty day admission from the WHO guy says to me that the spead is much wider, therefore the lethality is much lower than 2%. Probably 0.2% or maybe even 0.02% if the symptoms are mild and mostly unreported. Keep in mind the 1919 had 4% mortality in more advanced countries and maybe 10% worldwide

Obviously I could be wrong, and it could be a difficult-to-spread virus with high lethaliity. But I don't think so and we'll know in a few short weeks if I am right.

[PA Engineer]

Thanks. I'm looking closely at Monolaurin and N-Acetyl-L-Cysteine (NAC). NAC has been found to be helpful in reducing cytokine storms. Monolaurin as anti-microbial and anti-viral. NAC dosage is substantial (minimally 4X day orally and higher IV). Monolaurin is 3000mg a day, however requires dosage titration over two weeks.

I'll post some papers on NAC tomorrow. Jarrows 600mg NAC Sustain is one of our choices. Much more shelf stable.

[Black Agnes]

Monolaurin is good stuff.

[PA Engineer]

Oh. Just noticed the author. Horváth is good and has done some substantial reviews on Panthine.

[PA Engineer]

For your reference:

Dr. Eric Ding Twitter

Last post should have read pantethine. Panethine may also play a role in viral control because of the recent findings on PANK4. Panethine and NAC are critical imputes to the sulfur cycle.

[justa-hairyape]

Got me thinking about tattoo parlors.

[Black Agnes]

Yup.

Beauty parlors too.

[justa-hairyape]

100,000 ? That’s a lot of beds. This must have a very long recovery period, if any.

[muggs]

I wonder if the illicit fentanyl will be contaminated.