Posted on 11/03/2016 8:55:59 AM PDT by Signalman
The following results are based on 600 completed interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire (209 Republicans, 191 Democrats, and 200 undeclared voters). The interviews were conducted October 31 through November 2, 2016.
The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 600 likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Question wording and responses:
If the election for US President were being held today between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party, for whom would you vote - Clinton, Trump, Johnson, or Stein? (names rotated)
Trump: 48
Clinton 43
Johnson: 4
Stein: 1
Very nice!
Is 35 R, 32 D a good sampling for NH?
Sweet!
Helmut Norpoth basically said TRUMP will be POTUS by seeing how strong TRUMP performed in NH
I just don’t see how TRUMP loses NH!
Probably not a good sample.
Lots of MA voters moved to NH after messing up their own state.
Not to be a killjoy, but probably not a good sample. However, this election may be different as there will be many crossovers, so even if it were sampled more heavy Dem, the outcome after the vote may be the same.
“Is 35 R, 32 D a good sampling for NH”
Yes...there are more registered Republicans in NH.
“Not to be a killjoy, but probably not a good sample.”
The sample is fine...see #8
It would be nice to have NH back in the “Make America Great again “ fold!
The changing poll numbers in all the swing states are creating multiple paths to victory for President Trump.
Take a look at this scenario, where Trump wins Michigan(which is now a 3 point race)and he wins NH and 1 CD from Maine. He does not need PA or VA and only needs to hold AZ (for 274) or UT(for 269).
Or look at this...he wins Michigan and Ohio along with the east coast up to and including Virginia. He doesn’t need NH, Maine, or PA, and the race would be over at 271 EV before the western states (UT, AZ, CO and NV) even start counting!
Of course if Trump wins Michigan, he most likely will end up at 292-301 or more by the end of the night.
Trump/Pence Victory 2016
I can’t believe its even that close. Driving around southern New Hampshire it is at least 5 or 10 to 1 Trump to Hillary signs (and some of the Hillary signs also include the phrase ‘for prison’). I was over in Nashua this morning (one of the larger cities) and the entire downtown area and the route to the highway were solid blue with Trump signs. Lots of folks out holding signs for Trump, none for the Dems.
Remember, NH has no state income tax. IMHO that says something about the political views of the people living there.
Hope we can trust this poll from the Pirate Polling Group///
So does Nevada. Nevada would be a solid red state if it wasn’t for Las Vegas.
Just because you’re used to seeing every poll as “D+x” doesn’t mean every state is a D+ sample. Romney won NH 17k to 15k. This sample looks about the same, percentage wise.
NH does indeed have a +3 GOP registration advantage.
No, true, and I guess that's part of the issue :)
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