What magically delicious lucky charms have Pats used upon fumble-free footballs? [Ballghazi Vanity]

Colofornian | Feb. 25, 2015 | Colofornian

[Colofornian]

Sunday -- March 1-- begins the 25th annual recognition of Irish-American recognition month as recognized by the United States Congress. Why, St. Patrick's Day parades have been going on in Boston for over 275 years to the delight of crowds' cheers and whistles.

And, for these past 40 days, it appears a distinct type of whistle-blowing has entered the New England landscape: Whistle-blowers of alleged East Coast NFL shenanigans have been turned up to high volume. The pursuit? To discover if any roguish tricksterism by Brady & his Boston-based Patriotic Leprauchans these past eight years might be evidenced by “the stats.”

In fact, the latest turn in the unfolding drama is late last week when the Colts General Manager unveiled that the Colts had alerted the NFL about possible Patriot shenanigans before its January 18 playoff game! (And, 'twas e'en a hint of the NFL possibly running a “sting” on the Pats!) See: There’s a glaring contradiction in NFL’s Deflategate timeline ['Ballghazi' Pats' sting?] for more details!)

Trolling for trickster-based Super-Bowl bound treasure

Indeed, some analysts have been...
...trolling for statistical patterns which might...
...unearth...
...certain NFL buried treasure
(In this case -- underinflated footballs that become easy-peasy to catch in pelting rain and, as a follow-up, almost-magical footballs which seemingly refused to become fumbled ones. Ah, such is the making of end-of-the-rainbow Super Bowl treasure indeed!)

The named 'knomes': 'DeflateGate' & 'Ballghazi' & 'Pat-Flattened Pigskins?': Leprechauns on the Loose in New England?

These knomes have even acquired names – and, of course, they come in triplets like the Shamrock:

'Deflategate'

How was it 11 of a dozen Patriot footballs came to be deflated below NFL standards by halftime of the Jan. 18 playoff game with the Colts?

'Ballghazi'

How was it that the Patriots were your average 1.6 to 1.8-fumble-per-game football team 1999-2006 and by 2007 not a single Patriot running back fumbled on a running play...as in NO rushing fumbles all season long...stretching into the post-season for all three playoff games as well? (And then that type of fumble-free patterns stretched not only three extra games, but eight YEARS!)

'Pat-Flattened Pigskins?': Leprechauns on the Loose in New England?

How might a statistical analyst give his “best case” that leprechauns are indeed at large in New England?

Well, what if I told you that the Patriots' defense fumbled the ball...
...more often in (take your pick which of these following seasons) – 2003, 2002, 2001, 1999 than the Patriots' running backs did rushing the ball in 2007 – even including all three playoff games?
...Or their defense fumbled the ball as often in 2001 as the Patriots' running backs did rushing the ball for the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons combined (35 games including three playoff games)?!
...Or their defense fumbled the ball as much combining regular seasons 1999-2003 as did the Patriots running backs' rushing the ball combining regular seasons 2007-2008 and 2010-2011?

(Now you know what the job description of a New England leprechaun is every pre-game!)

Beyond that, just compare the 2006-2007 seasons and broader patterns (either 2000-2014, or 2003-2014)

Charting a Snapshot of 'Ballghazi's' 'Ghost': A

Category	2006 NE Season	2007 NE Season
Overall fumbles	31 (27 regular season)	17 (14 regular season)
Rushing fumbles by Patriot running backs	7 (19 games, including 3 playoffs)	0 (19 games, including 3 playoffs)
Fumble rate per game	Avg team: 1.5 vs. NE's 1.6	Avg team: 1.6 vs. NE's 0.8 (Less fumbles by half!) Note: Even indoor based teams averaged 1.55 fumbles per game)
Brady's Completion %	61.8%	68.9%

Charting a Snapshot of 'Ballghazi's' 'Ghost': B

Fumbles by Teams Per Game
2003-2006 NE	2003-2006 Other 31 teams	2007-2014 NE	2007-2014 Other 23 Outdoor teams	2007-2014 Indoor-based teams (8)
1.46	1.6	0.96 [this is improvement of 1 less fumble every 2 games vs. previous NE teams]	1.46 [this means one more fumble every 2 games than NE]	1.29 [this means one more fumble every 3 games than NE]

Source for most raw fumbles-per-games stats: NFL Team Fumbles per Game: Per Year 2014 → 2003

Shenanigan naysaying

Yet despite an NFL-on-the-record fine for a certain Bostonian coach's reputation for shelling out shenanigans ensued by a current NFL-paid attorney investigating the whole football shakedown, many naysayers still doubt these knomes actually exist beyond the legion of urban legends.

So, for certain NFL attorneys who may want to delve into local Boston lore, what pot o' gold nuggets of evidence seems to suggest shenanigans on the loose going back about 8 years?

Note: before assessing chart below, it might be of help to review Warren Sharp's original chart on 19 of these players below:

* Jan. 28, 2015 “update”: New England Patriots Fumble More Often When Playing for Other Teams)

* See also: January 22, 2015: The New England Patriots Prevention of Fumbles is Nearly Impossible and...

* January 23 2015 Slate: Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.

Pat stats: Considerations Weighing Against/For – Sudden Shameful Shamrock Shenanigans in New England

Indicators of 'Deflategate' & 'Ballghazi' as Urban Legend	Red Flags in Pat Stats Suggesting Shenanigans
1. Warren Sharp's analytics case of embellished fumbles (what was he thinking – or not thinking – anyway?) Sharp treated all fumbles as “equal” & “relevant” research. But, alas, they aren't. Simply put, if a team is accused of doctoring their own footballs, & if special teams use a common pool of balls providing no competitive advantage, then special teams' fumbles are irrelevant & need special segmenting from all analytical charts. This impacted Sharp's charts how? One Sharp chart lists 19 players who were either former Patriots or played elsewhere prior to coming to New England. These 19 lost 124 overall fumbles. The problem is three dozen fumbles occurred during returning a punt or kick. (That's 29% of fumbles in list).	1. The “however” to this is it's an “equal-opportunity” application mistake: On the other side of the ledger – those tracking Pat fumbles 2007-2014 – 9 of 39 fumbles were likewise special teams (23% vs. 29% on other side). In other words: Most of fumbles removed from the balance sheet prove to be “a wash.” All it does is to heighten the number of touches on each comparison side per fumble. It is true -- for sake of only including 'relevant' fumbles as it applies to this case study -- that Sharp's "44 touches per fumble" & "73 touches per fumble is a myth. The actual touches are much higher on both comparative sides. Also, when playoff stats are added to Sharp's charts along with one additional measurement – RB Kevin Faulk – it fleshes out an even a greater “measurement”: The lopsided “touches per fumble” ratio Sharp arrived at – 98 – 67 among those 19 players & 107-53 among the five players with 300+ Patriot touches...grows to 145-87 among 20 players & an astounding 190-70 split among 8 players with 274+ touches (Wes Welker, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Faulk, Danny Woodhead, Sammy Morris, LeGarrette Blount, & Randy Moss)
1a. How did (1) above play out? Wes Welker, for example, returned punts/kickoffs for both Pats & other teams: Therefore, half of his Pat fumbles were irrelevant to case study & ALL of his non-Patriot fumbles were likewise irrelevant. Same with Brandon Tate re: his non-Patriot fumbles (all irrelevant). One would think that including Tate's 11 fumbles in only 35 touches would greatly skew the results to work against Sharp's hypothesis. A dozen other fumbles were likewise removed on the non Pats' side: (Amendola, 5; Moss, 3; Stallworth, 2; + Jordan & Gaffney, 1 apiece).	1a. How the above played out on Pat stat side '07-14: Welker returned punts & kicks for the Pats, too: So half of his fumbles were special teams' related. Amendola & Morris also had each had a special teams' fumbles removed. And tho Sharp didn't include Kevin Faulk in his chart because Faulk only played for the Pats, Faulk is perhaps THE most interesting case study, but not for special teams' sake (Faulk had one special teams' fumble removed from his stat total; beyond that, he only fumbled once in his last five seasons with the Pats - & it was a reception, not a rush. By comparison, in the alleged pre-Ballghazi era, Faulk fumbled it 24 times (4 special teams) over eight seasons: 13 rushing, 7 after catches. IoW, he averaged 1 'relevant' fumble every 35 touches thru 2006; suddenly it mushroomed to 1 'relevant' fumble every 433 touches 2007-2011. IoW, Kevin Faulk himself is the face -- the poster boy -- for 'ballghazi shenanigans'!
2. 'Relevant' fumbles & fumble ratios: When the raw fumbles #s are scrubbed & only 'relevant ones remain, 8 of 19 players Sharp analyzed don't match the “we fumbled more wearing non-Patriot shirts” narrative: Danny Woodhead, Fred Taylor, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Lafell, Deion Branch & Lamont Jordan all have similar fumble ratio numbers no matter which team they've played for; + Wes Welker, Randy Moss – when properly stripped of those special teams' fumbles – even showed significantly more of a penchant to fumble when playing for the Patriots.	2. Collective stats for 11 Patriots 2007-2014 show only 1 fumble every 472 touches! While some of the Patriot fumble “miserliness” 07-14 are indeed attributable to guys who tend not to fumble often (beyond special teams at least) – Welker, Woodhead, & Laurence Maroney. Yet when the other 15 Rbs & Wide-outs are surveyed, 'twas an “almost impossible” scenario to look @ the stats of 11 of them & realize these 11 combined for almost 1900 touches between them during those 8 seasons, & yet they fumbled only four times: 1889 touches & only four collective fumbles by Green-Ellis, Faulk, Branch, Taylor, Amendola, Lloyd, Lafell, Jordan, Gaffney, Evans, Stallworth – that's only one fumble per 472 touches
3. A fumble-by-fumble review turns up that the players most responsible for Pat fumbles were quarterbacks! “NFL Fumble Pie” is cut up into 5 pieces: Fumbles by Qbs, Rbs, Receivers, Special teams, & the occasional post-interception fumble. For 1999-2006, Pats Qbs made 45% of fumbles; that was reduced to 33% 2007-2014. Sharp (& others including myself) don't want to include Qbs for analysis purposes because they already tend to have an untucked ball in most play situations. The key point here, though, is between 07-14, Pats Qbs + special teams accounted for over half of all team fumbles, leaving less room to “shenanigize” anything	3. The so-called “flip side” of this argument is actually the same argument: Yes, review the fumbles to see who was actually making them, or rather, no longer coming even close to making them. How is it that the Patriot Rbs averaged less than 3 fumbles per season 2007-2014? How is it than when you include playoff games, the Pats average a rushing fumble by a RB or wide-out about once every six games? How did the Pats go through '07 –19 games including playoffs – without its Rbs managing to fumble the ball on a rushing play? (Kevin Faulk had one fumble – but even that came on pass he caught)
4. If you're trying to explain why Brady had his sudden 2007 completion % surge, look no further than Randy Moss. Moss had previously had two 100+ reception years; his new presence in '07 accounted for 98 receptions.	4. Indeed, personnel are very important considerations. And it's personnel breakdown charts like the one below – a corrective revision of Warren Sharp's – listing 19 players that makes the 'Ballghazi' case. (Note: added Kevin Faulk as a 20th player because Faulk had over 430 touches post 2006 & that can be readily compared to his 1999-2006 Patriot seasons where he had 700 touches) – that also provides a “face” to this “ghost” of “Ballghazi.”

Chart Summary: Distinctions between Warren Sharp stats and those below (See Jan. 28, 2015 “update”: New England Patriots Fumble More Often When Playing for Other Teams)

Fumbles-per-touch analytics
STATISTICAL BOUNDARIES	COLOFORNIAN'S ANALYTICAL BOUNDARIES	WARREN SHARP'S ANALYTICAL BOUNDARIES
Are only 'relevant' fumbles -- non-special teams' fumbles -- included in fumbles per touch comparisons?	YES	NO (Sharp's are accumulative)
Are playoff stats included in 'relevant' fumbles by touch comparisons?	YES	NO (Sharp uses only season stats despite very controversy arising in playoff context)
Are pre-2007 Patriots stats included in 'relevant fumbles by touch comparisons?	YES	NO (Sharp didn't include Kevin Faulk as he only played for NE; & he didn't use Deion Branch, Ben Watson & Laurence Maroney pre-2007 Pat stats: Yet these stats are relevant for comparison sake)

Comparing Individual Player Statistics when Playing for New England Patriots 2007-->2014 vs Playing for other NFL teams or playing for the Patriots before 2007

Left side: NE PLAYER: 07-14	Right side: NON-NE PLAYER + NE PLAYERS PRE-2007
NAME	RECEPTIONS	RUSHES	TOUCHES	'RELEVANT' FUMBLES*	'RELEVANT' FUMBLES PER TOUCH	RECEPTIONS	RUSHES	TOUCHES	'RELEVANT' FUMBLES	'RELEVANT' FUMBLES PER TOUCH
Wes Welker	741	21	762	6 relevant (other 6 on special teams)	1 per 127	237	1	238	0 relevant (all 13 on special teams)	Less than 1 per 238
Laurence Maroney	45	644	689	5	1 per 138	5	67	72	3	1 per 24
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	31	557	588	0	Less than 1 per 588	28	517	545	5	1 per 109
Kevin Faulk	181	252	433	1 relevant (1 special team)	1 per 433	301	700	1001	20 relevant (4 special teams)	1 per 50
Danny Woodhead	104	285	389	3	1 per 130	160	95	255	2	1 per 128
Sammy Morris	52	335	387	3 relevant (1 special team)	1 per 129	117	402	519	8	1 per 65
LaGarrette Blount	6	275	281	3	1 per 94	27	491	518	All 10 relevant	1 per 52
Randy Moss	271	3	274	All 5 relevant	1 per 55	765	23	788	8 relevant by comparison (3 special teams)	1 per 98
Deion Branch	130	0	63	0	Less than 1 per 63	452	11	463	1 relevant (2 special teams by comparison)	1 per 463
Fred Taylor	4	108	112	1	1 per 112	293	2555	2848	All 26 relevant by comparison	1 per 110
Danny Amendola	90	2	92	0 relevant (1 special team)	Less than 1 per 92	196	12	208	5 relevant by comparison (5 special teams)	1 per 42
Ben Watson	91	1	92	2	1 per 46	210	1	211	6	1 per 35
Brandon Lloyd	86	0	86	0	Less than 1 per 86	325	1	326	4	1 per 82
Brandon Lafell	83	2	85	1	1 per 85	171	7	178	2	1 per 89
Lamont Jordan	0	80	80	1	1 per 80	163	856	1019	7 relevant (1 special team)	1 per 146
Jabar Gaffney	78	0	78	0	Less than 1 per 78	394	9	403	3 relevant (1 special team)	1 per 134
Heath Evans	8	48	56	0	less than 1 per 56	59	121	180	3	1 per 60
Donte Stallworth	55	1	56	0	Less than 1 per 56	280	20	300	3 relevant (2 special teams)	1 per 100
Brandon Tate	24	6	30	1	1 per 30	31	4	35	0 relevant (11 special teams by comparison)	Less than 1 per 35
TOTALS	2080	2620	4700	32	1 in 145	4214	5993	10107	116	1 in 87
8 Players' collective totals who had 274+ touches for Patriots	1431	2372	3803	20	1 per 190	Non-NE or Early NE	1640	2296	56	1 per 70

Note: Relevant' Fumbles Defined: Fumbles committed while rushing the ball or after reception – not special teams' fumbles.

[Pearls Before Swine]

The Pats won the SuperBowl, albeit just barely, with the balls being scrutinized like Obama’s resume should have been. I don’t think the rest matters, although it’s fun to speculate.

[jjotto]

Awaiting the statistical analysis of Babe Ruth compared to other players of the era and of the Yankees compared to other teams. I have a strong suspicion that the methods used would also ‘prove’ they were cheating.

[Veggie Todd]

New England won the game. It’s settled science.

[Colofornian]

(If you look at the “Pat Stats” chart — left side under weighing stats contributing to notion of “urban legend”...I did my best to review stats which might reinforce the notion that this is all myth)

[Colofornian]

New England won the game. It’s settled science.

Well, hey, wherever a Democrat has "won" a settled November race, that's "settled science" as well.

Yet, if present & later articles unveil that she won her Democratic primary with the help of dead voters, repeat voters, etc. what? You don't comment on that? You just defend her with "settled science" comments?

[Veggie Todd]

Relax. I was being sarcastic.

[Colofornian]

: }

Well, your impersonation of other FREEPERs was so perfect, that, of course, I was taken in. :)

[Dilbert56]

Maybe the coach unloads players who fumble and doesn’t run plays, like options, that lead to fumbles.

[mkleesma]

Sooner or later, ALL must come to realize the supreme greatness of Tom Brady and The New England Patriots.

This is one of the great truisms of life.

[bicyclerepair]

This country would be so much better off if MA NY and KA seceeded.

[Lakeshark]

To all our delusional conspiracy theorists on FR; I’m sure you’ll figure out how to attack them even more next year: http://www.theonion.com/articles/resilient-tom-brady-critics-already-looking-ahead,37959/

[Colofornian]

Maybe the coach unloads players who fumble ..

Not a bad surmisal to check out if you haven't yet looked @ the individual stats...

What you say might be so if you go all the way back to 1999...didn't recognize some names from that season...and they seemed to have a lot of rushing fumbles that year.

If you look @ the 20 players on the last chart of the thread, you'll see players like BenJarvus Green-Ellis that doesn't fit your theory.

He carried the ball over 500 times for the Pats...almost 600 total touches...zero fumbles...THEN he goes over to the Bengals for a few years and fumbles 5x.

Kevin Faulk is another one...he's fumbled the ball 25x in his career...including a playoff game. Before the 2007 season, he already had 23 TOTAL fumbles to his name.

2007 comes along and he only fumbles twice more thru 2011...and one of those was on a punt return.

Yeah, Welker fumbled it 6x as a Pat WR...but considering he had 762 touches...it's a pretty good "rate" to fumble only once at WR every 127 touches.

I'd say half of the players on that list started careers elsewhere ...Morris, Moss, Taylor, Amendola, Gaffney, Lloyd, Stallworth, Lafell, Evans ..most of them fumbled more elsewhere before coming to the Pats... (Moss had more fumbles elsewhere but a better fumble ratio with Pats)

A few of those ... Amendola, Lafell still with NE.

Other guys that went elsewhere...like Maroney and Woodhead...really didn't have that bad of a fumble rate either...similar to Welker's ratio...

[Berlin_Freeper]

JumpedTheLakeShark is the Conspiracy Nut and Crazy Liar who, three weeks later, is still pinging me like a sore crazy cheater who got caught. LoL! :D

[Colofornian]

:)

[edzo4]

Wow you really need to get a life.. BTW Ben Jarvis never fumbled At all till after he played for the patriots not pee wee not high school not in college. So I imagine you have some spreadsheet to prove the patriots did that too.

[Colofornian]

:)

(Yeah, the level of inconsistency on the part of FREEPERs sometimes becomes WAY too obvious)

[dfwgator]

[Colofornian]

BTW Ben Jarvis never fumbled At all till after he played for the patriots not pee wee not high school not in college.

(But, of course, he fumbled NUMEROUS times for the Bengals in a few years' time with them)

[Berlin_Freeper]

More cheating!
Looks like a bad psycho day for you, JumpedTheLakeshark.

New England Patriots face fresh allegations over Deflategate game