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Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.
slate.com ^ | Jan. 23 2015 | Warren Sharp

Posted on 01/24/2015 1:08:10 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper

...One can clearly see the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays per fumble lost. The league average is 105 plays per fumble lost. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

I spoke with a data scientist whom I know from work on NFLproject.com and sent him the data. He said:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win.

(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...


TOPICS: Sports
KEYWORDS: nfl; superbowl
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To: Berlin_Freeper

;)


101 posted on 01/24/2015 7:05:20 PM PST by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: ICE-FLYER

Thanks for breaking my thread past 100 posts.
I always get a kick out of that :)


102 posted on 01/24/2015 7:08:44 PM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Berlin_Freeper

The analysis may be top rate, but the fundamental assumption that fumbles are randomly distributed needs to first be proven, including in the case of the Patriots.

BTW - I am no supporter of the Pats. I grew up a Jets fan. LOL


103 posted on 01/24/2015 7:10:31 PM PST by MortMan (All those in favor of gun control raise both hands!)
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To: MortMan

There is no such assumption, otherwise we would be looking at a chart that showed all the teams as almost a single horizontal line. The skills, techniques and cheating are inherent in the counts themselves. That is why the cheating Patriots stick out like a big sore thumb.


104 posted on 01/24/2015 7:34:23 PM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Berlin_Freeper

Happy to be of service :)


105 posted on 01/24/2015 10:20:27 PM PST by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: Berlin_Freeper

Loser


106 posted on 01/24/2015 11:35:49 PM PST by Figment
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To: Berlin_Freeper
 photo 4397f3fc-b963-40e9-9d0d-446ec6f8a36a_zpscvm7nkn3.jpg
107 posted on 01/24/2015 11:49:41 PM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
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To: Figment

9 out of 10 FReepers agree, Trolls who get caught attempting to slam an article without bothering to read it are Losers.


108 posted on 01/25/2015 2:08:06 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: timestax

I noticed the Pats like to talk about balls a lot when the fact is these are footballs.

What’s up with that??

Did I just say what’s UP with that?

Now we know what is up... Ick!


109 posted on 01/25/2015 2:13:06 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
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To: Berlin_Freeper; All

Well, you know some teams do have challenges that effect performance, it could be a blood flow issue...

They should talk to their doctor about this condition, and Viagra-Air may be the solution...

Do not drink alcohol, or operate a no-huddle offense without knowing how Viagra-Air effects your gameplan...

Seek medical help immediately if the team experiences an route of more than 40 points...

So be ready when the time is right...Talk to your doctor about Viagra-Air...


110 posted on 01/25/2015 8:29:44 AM PST by stevie_d_64 (I will settle for a "perfectly good, gently used" kidney...Apply within...)
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To: TruthShallSetYouFree
“Bingo! I am a Giants’ fan, but I am also a math guy who doesn't like to see statistics being misused. Perhaps there are reasons other than cheating to account for the Patriots’ low fumble rate. Maybe Brady's quick, short passes and excellent decision-making allow him to get the ball out of his own hands quickly, thus reducing the number of strip-sacks, a very common means of turning the ball over. Maybe Belichick stresses ball security more than most, and makes that a priority when finalizing his roster.”

I will never understand the vitriol so many Giants fans have for Belichick. He single handily won you a Superbowl against the Bills.

111 posted on 01/25/2015 4:23:19 PM PST by HenpeckedCon (What pi$$es me off the most is that POS commie will get a State Funeral!)
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To: lepton; DugwayDuke; Clemenza; rmlew
Paleo Conservative: P=nRT

lepton: You lost the V...which *may* also come into play.

Well I think I might have been just a little distracted when I posted that. I got married just about 7 hours later.

112 posted on 01/25/2015 7:02:38 PM PST by Paleo Conservative (Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not really out to get you.)
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To: timestax
 photo 178a11d2-c82b-4a25-9612-b96ca7bca388_zpsww9ygju8.jpg

113 posted on 01/25/2015 7:12:39 PM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
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To: Paleo Conservative

Congratulations!


114 posted on 01/26/2015 3:20:09 AM PST by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: Paleo Conservative

Congrats again!


115 posted on 01/26/2015 8:31:45 AM PST by Clemenza (Lurking)
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To: mac_truck
Concurring bump.

It's amazing to see the lengths some folks go to with this non-story.


I find it amazing the lengths some people will go to ignore simple facts - add that to the disgusting Alinsky tactics that those people use against others, who fail to ignore the facts.
116 posted on 01/27/2015 10:15:40 AM PST by MMaschin
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To: timestax
 photo 1879d08a-6351-4055-bb7f-e9a41e310db9_zpsmzihxtjp.jpg
117 posted on 01/28/2015 1:20:34 PM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
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