Investment & Finance Thread (week Aug. 24 - Aug. 30 edition)

Daily investment & finance thread ^ | Aug. 24, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

Just started. Actually when you mentioned it I got the torrent for the .mobi for my kindle. Gotta love this info age...

[Wyatt's Torch]

:-) I’ve done that as well (shhhhh!)

Let em know what you think.

[BipolarBob]

I sold off everything but three defensive stocks this morning. This August has been very good for my portfolio. Made my year really.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

I’m still hangin tuff.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

We tacked on another .10 to that S&P 2000 close from yesterday. Woo Hoo!

[1010RD]

That’s the future. Dedicated fans, interactive and easy to make money. How could you say no?

[1010RD]

Why should that be illegal? Why is it wrong?

[expat_panama]

Why should that be illegal? Why is it wrong?

This thing about HFT's is a fuss that Wyatt & I have been at odds w/ for a while now.  From what I can see the core of the disagreement is whether HFT'ers actually interfere with other people's trades by blocking and somehow stealing access.  I've seen no clear evidence they're doing that, other than they simply act first, and in my book being first is how the market's been run for tens of thousands of years.

What (imho) is really going on here is that loony lefties like to 'prove' that capitalism is wrong --though fighting freedom is such a hopeless cause that apparently griping about HFT's is really about the best they can do.   The charge does in fact stick for a lot of the public though, because so many people either hate technology in general, or they hate what ever they don't understand --which is a lot!

[Wyatt's Torch]

HFT’ers actually interfere with other people’s trades by blocking and somehow stealing access.

Lewis’s book says the opposite. Get back to me on this after you finish.

[expat_panama]

Lewis’s book says the opposite. Get back to me on this after you finish.

The problem I'm having w/ the book is that it's in storybook form.  Positive reviews for the book on Amazon highlighted on how they thought it was a page-turner tale that they enjoyed.   I like a good page-turning tale when it's spun about something like war or sex, but when it comes to money and business all I want is the bottom line and the supporting data I can check with. 

I may be spoiled w/ the book because when it first came out I read the write-ups and debates and formed an opinion and now everything I'm reading just kind of confirms my negative opinion.   I can't help but thinking I'm reading something by yet another snarky opinionated pompous pundit from Rolling Stone.  Don't worry, I'll bludgeon my way through it but personally I really don't care what some guy's book says, I care about what I can verify for myself. My idea is to mine the book for what I can research myself.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Just follow what Katsuyama has been doing. With IEX and the hedge funds that are using the exchange. Lewis is just documenting it.

[Wyatt's Torch]

BTW had a meeting with an IHS economist today. I’ll try and post a link to download the slides if anyone is interested.

[expat_panama]

post a link to download the slides

Yes please!

[expat_panama]

Yo!  We had a quiet flat stock trade session yesterday and soft gains in metals, but this morning's futures have soaring metals and falling stocks.  Big data dump today too--

Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
GDP - Second Estimate
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate
Pending Home Sales
Natural Gas Inventories

--but remember that we're in a low volume month end before a 3-day weekend and that always means...  something.  My personal tack will be to send congrats to BipolarBob's  post 63 "...sold off everything but three..." and rejoin the thread Chgogal turned me on to Two experts warn correction could total 60%.  Other reading:

• Euro-Area Confidence Falls as Spain Price Drop Fuels ECB Woes Bloomberg - 1 hour ago Euro-area economic confidence fell more than forecast, Spanish consumer prices dropped the most in five years and German unemployment unexpectedly rose in a burst of data backing Mario Draghi's warning that more stimulus may be needed.
• Russia Stocks Drop Most in 3 Weeks, Ruble Falls on U.S. Comments Russian stocks declined the most in three weeks and the ruble weakened with government bonds as the U.S. OAO Aeroflot retreated after reporting a loss. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) lost 2 percent to 1,419.01 by 12:56 p.m. in Moscow, the sharpest slide since Aug. 7. The yield on ruble-denominated bonds… Bloomberg
• FBI investigates alleged Russian cyber attack on Wall Street Telegraph.co.uk - 4:40am The FBI is investigating whether Russian hackers staged a cyber-attack on major Wall Street businesses this month in retaliation for US sanctions imposed over Ukraine, Bloomberg News reported last night.
• Obama's Delusional View of the Economy - Editorial, Investor's Business
• Yes, It's Time To Be Defensive..Very Defensive - Zero Hedge
• S&P 500 future corrective risk for 1992.25, maybe to 1981.5/80.75 Steve Miley - Market Chartist - Thu Aug 28, 1:16AM CDT S&P 500 downside correction bias (full story)
• Associated Press Americans' pessimism on economy has grown

[Wyatt's Torch]

Hopefully this works:

IHS Macro Outlook 0814

[Wyatt's Torch]

German yields. Insane.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Another good chart for discussion:

[Wyatt's Torch]

GDP 1st revision 4.2% vs 3.9% consensus estimate

[expat_panama]

ahaaa..... index futures improving.

[expat_panama]

Another good chart...

Tx!  I'd heard that China and Japan were facing demographic problems but I hadn't seen it quantified that way.  My guess is that U.S. strength is largely because of immigration, both in terms of population and culture.