Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia
“...Findings: Model forecasts until Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of having reached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing, improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantial impact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficient to halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceutical intervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecasted trajectory of the epidemic.”
Three of four new suspected Ebola cases test negative for virusFour people were admitted to hospital in Madrid and Tenerife on Thursday due to fears they may have contracted Ebola. However, three of the four have already tested negative after preliminary tests for the presence of the virus in their bloodstreams.
Two people were put in isolation in Madrid’s Carlos III Hospital on Thursday, while a third arrived shortly after midnight. The three new patients in Madrid include a person who was transported in the same ambulance as Spain’s only confirmed Ebola case, Teresa Romero; a Nigerian man who arrived in Madrid on a flight from Paris yesterday, having started his journey from Lagos; and a Spanish missionary who had been working in Liberia.
According to government sources cited by news agency EFE, first tests have come back negative, although the patients will remain at the hospital for a 72-hour period under observation. José Manuel Echevarría, the head of Virology at the National Microbiology Center at the Carlos III Health Institute, reported that the Nigerian man has tested positive for malaria.
(snip)
WTH are these people thinking? Or is it that they trust the CDC and believed they were at zero risk because the CDC said so?
The Twilight Zone continues. . ..
Local Dallas grapevine says the Lab Tech’s cruise ship trip was approved of by CDC ahead of time, as the Tech was not in a “Exposure risk pool” prior to Pham and Vinson coming down with Ebola.
By Jason Hanna and Faith Karimi, CNN
updated 8:08 AM EDT, Fri October 17, 2014
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/17/health/us-ebola/index.html
(CNN) — A Texas hospital health worker who may have handled Thomas Eric Duncan's fluid samples has been quarantined on a cruise ship in Belize — another reminder of the widespread fears of the deadly virus.
Though the employee did not have direct contact with Duncan, he or she “may have had contact with his specimen,” the U.S. State Department said Friday.
A doctor at the cruise ship has declared the worker symptom-free and in good health, but the worker will remain under isolation as a precaution, it said.
It's been 19 days since the worker handled Duncan's fluid samples — two days shy of the 21-day incubation period for Ebola.
The Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital worker boarded the commercial cruise ship Sunday from Galveston, Texas.
At the time, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had not updated its monitoring requirements, and required only self-monitoring, said Jen Psaki, a spokeswoman for the State Department.
“The hospital employee and traveling partner have voluntarily remained isolated in a cabin,” Psaki said. “We are working with the cruise line to safely bring them back to the United States out of an abundance of caution.”
The Belize government turned down a request by the United States to evacuate the worker through the international airport in Belize City.
“We remain in close contact with U.S. officials ... we have maintained the position that when even the smallest doubt remains, we will ensure the health and safety of the Belizean people,” the government said in a statement.
Duncan, the first person diagnosed with Ebola in the United States, died last week.
[snip]
Dr. Frieden is doing substantial damage to the CDC. He knows this. Yet he refuses to resign. This is a very bad time to have a Director of the CDC that is not trusted by the American people.
Poll: CDC approval drops since Ebola crisis
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/poll-cdc-ebola-approval-111976.html
KENDALL BREITMAN | 10/17/14
Americans’ approval of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has seen a dramatic drop since Ebola emerged in the United States, according to a new poll.
A CBS News poll found that only 37 percent of those polled said that they think the CDC is doing an “excellent or good job.”
Democrats were more likely to have positive views of the CDC, with 49 percent saying that it was doing an “excellent or good job,” while only 35 percent of Republicans held that view.
In May, a Gallup poll found that 60 percent of Americans thought that the CDC was doing an “excellent/good” job — making it the highest-rated agency — above the FBI, NASA and the CIA. According to CBS News, new polling results show that only the FBI receives an approval rate above 50 percent.
Criticism of the CDC has been mounting since Thomas Eric Duncan, the first person in the U.S. to be diagnosed with Ebola, died on Oct. 8. Since then, two health care workers have been diagnosed with the virus. CDC director Tom Frieden appeared on Capitol Hill on Thursday to answer questions from Congress.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 15 to Oct. 16, surveyed 1,008 adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=5725&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=3705
Pixie
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Nov 2006
Posts: 64213
Location: CT, USA
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:56 am
The CNN banner up right now asks: “Why are potential Ebola cases traveling freely?
All of these HCWs who had what any rational individual would term “contact with an Ebola patient” were free to travel, free to go wherever they wished. It is not poor decision making on the part of individuals that is at the heart of the problem, it is poor institutional decision making that has led to this mess.
What still hasn't been completely understood out there is that CDC’s own rules allowed for individuals who had had the MOST direct contact with Duncan, the Ebola patient, and his bodily fluids, to be considered to be in NO “at risk for exposure” category.
There was no list for “risk of exposure” that those 78 HCWs were on. There was no list - that's why CDC didn't even have a clue as to who these people were after Nina Pham tested positive. There was no list. CDC thought these HCWs had “no exposure” to Ebola.
The HCWs who cared for Duncan were not on the “low risk for exposure” list, according to CDC.
The HCWs who cared for Duncan were not on the “high risk for exposure” list, according to CDC.
The HCWs who cared for Duncan were not on any “at risk” list for exposure to Ebola.
None. Why?
CDC considered HCWs who cared for Duncan to be at NO “exposure to Ebola.”
None of the HCWs who had anything to do with Duncan's care was placed on a “low risk” or “high risk” list by CDC as long as they were wearing the CDC recommended PPE of gloves/gown/mask/shield at the time!
If the nurses and lab technicians and custodians were wearing the CDC recommended PPE while caring for Duncan or while coming in contact with his bodily fluids they were considered to have NO risk of exposure to Ebola!
So all the HCWs who had anything to do, at all, with Duncan at Presbyterian were completely free to go, to travel, to kiss newborn babies, to attend weddings, to serve food at the weekend potluck, to care for other patients, to do whatever!
This is so utterly insane that both top medical reporters and the congressional representatives are having a very hard time getting their heads around it. It is so utterly insane that no one in the public would ever DREAM that CDC could possibly ever think such a thing.
But CDC, until it suddenly changed its rules the other day after Nina Pham tested positive, did think such a thing. They only “changed” their guidance on this group of 77 because now they could say that there had been some breach in PPE or protocol. It wasn't their asinine recommendations that were at fault, it was the HCWs breach of them. So Frieden yesterday stood by his original asinine guidance without blinking.
It's the very definition of CDC hubris.
If HCWs caring for an Ebola patient were wearing the CDC recommended PPE (gloves/gown/mask/shield) they were protected by a magic force field and, according to CDC, they were at zero risk of contracting Ebola from their patient, his blood samples or other bodily fluids, or his environment.
It's CDC hubris at an unimaginable level.
And there is absolutely no one out there who willingly can believe that this is true, that CDC would consider the people who had the most contact with an Ebola patient during his most infectious period would be at no risk of Ebola exposure. As long as they played the CDC PPE game.
This is the big red flag that this agency has become utterly dysfunctional under Frieden’s ideological leadership.
So what drove this? Why did American’s lead health agency engage in such idiocy?
It is ideology and Frieden’s vision of a “grand plan” that drove this pivotal decision, this inane guidance.
HCWs caring for an Ebola patient HAD to be at zero risk, or “every hospital in America” couldn't care for them.
HCWs caring for an Ebola patient HAD to be outfitted in only “standard infection protocol PPE” or “every hospital in America” couldn't care for them.
HCWs caring for an Ebola patient had to be free to move about, anywhere they wished, anytime both during and after caring for an Ebola patient or “every hospital in America” couldn't care for them.
If Frieden’s premise is not true, and it has rapidly proven to be false, then “every hospital in America” CANNOT care for Ebola patients.
“Every hospital in America” cannot outfit their HCWS in “standard infection protocol PPE” if they are caring for an Ebola patient.
“Every hospital in America” cannot allow unlimited free movement of HCWs who are caring for an Ebola patient.
“Every hospital in America” cannot fail to monitor HCWs who are caring for an Ebola patient.
And if “every hospital in America” cannot be expected to welcome these restrictions and adhere to a much, much, stricter protocol as they care for Ebola patients, then “every hospital in America” cannot care for Ebola patients!
Which means only one thing: travel from the affected areas must be restricted because “every hospital in America” cannot care for Ebola patients!
The HCWSs cannot do this. They cannot take this risk - and they won't. They cannot be so restricted - and they won't. The hospitals cannot afford it - they simply cannot.
This entire mess — including the infections of Amber Vinson and Nina Pham — is a direct result not of bad science at CDC - that would be easier to fix.
This fine mess is the logical outcome of Frieden’s personal “right to travel” and “open borders” globalist philosophy.
Frieden is an embarrassment to Science and to the United States of America.
Sanity arrives in Texas, as the Public Health Department ditched CDC guidelines on regards travel and quarantine.
via the PFIF —
Travel ban for Texas health care workers in Ebola case
Doug Stanglin, USA TODAY 10:33 a.m. EDT October 17, 2014
Texas health officials have ordered any person who entered the room of the first Ebola patient at a Dallas hospital not to travel by public transport, including planes ship, buses or trains, or visit groceries, restaurants or theaters for 21 days, until the danger of developing Ebola has passed.
The instructions, issued by the Texas Department of State Health Service late Thursday, cover more than 70 health workers involved in providing care for Thomas Duncan, the Liberian national who became the first patient to test positive for Ebola in the United States.
[snip]
Duncan, 42, died Oct. 8 at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas.
The hospital workers were ordered to undergo monitoring twice a day, including one face-to-face encounter.
The health department said anyone failing to adhere to the rules “may be subject to a communicable disease control order.” The health workers were asked to sign a written acknowledgement of the directions when they appear for monitoring.
The new rules were issued in the wake of reports that one of the hospital nurses who treated Duncan — 29-year-old Amber Vinson — later flew to Cleveland and then took a return flight Oct. 13 on Frontier Airlines despite having a low-grade fever, indicating the possible onset of Ebola.
Vinson, who tested positive for Ebola on Tuesday, was hospitalized in Dallas and later transferred to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta. Another nurse, Nina Pham, 26, was the first nurse to test positive and has been transferred to the National Institute of Health hospital in Bethesda, Md.
Before Thursday’s order, the health workers involved in the Duncan case had only been asked to self-monitor for symptoms of infection after two nurses were diagnosed with the virus.
The order, signed by David Lakey, commissioner of the state health department, said any of the health-care workers affected can stay at the hospital to facilitate monitoring for the three-week period.
Comment:
Note that this “no travel” order was issued by the TEXAS public health authorities, not by CDC
And by the State, not the County morons
Since when did it become our job to be the Jerry Lewis (nothing against Jerry Lewis) of nations, going around begging other countries to send more money..
“WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State John Kerry is pleading with diplomats from around the world to donate more money and aid to West African nations battling the Ebola virus.”
http://www.morning-times.com/national_news/article_904994dc-39cc-5f97-86b8-0a6955876530.html
Any takers for a bet that some countries will ban travel from the US to them before the US bans travel from any other country?
Belize already did for the Carnival Cruise ship with a Dallas Lab tech for Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, along with everyone else on the cruise ship.
New Patient ‘Screened Positive’ For Ebola At Baylor Hospital, Testing Not Confirmed
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3216479/posts?page=1
.
I think this was posted up-thread, but it bears repeating.
It appears we have to extend the US Ebola quarantine clock over the CDC’s head.
About 1 in 20 Ebola infectees take longer than 21 days to show symptoms.
http://www.naturalnews.com/047267_Ebola_outbreak_incubation_period_viral_transmission.html
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/14-october-2014/en/
Shock W.H.O. report: Ebola has 42-day incubation period, not 21 days!
(NaturalNews) A jaw-dropping report released by the World Health Organization on October 14, 2014 reveals that 1 in 20 Ebola infections has an incubation period longer than the 21 days which has been repeatedly claimed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
This may be the single most important — and blatantly honest — research report released by any official body since the beginning of the Ebola outbreak. The WHO’s “Ebola situation assessment” report, found here, explains that only 95% of Ebola infections experience incubation within the widely-reported 21-day period. Here’s the actual language from the report:
95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval. [1]
Unless the sentence structure is somehow misleading, this passage appears to indicate the following:
• 95% of Ebola incubations occur from 1 – 21 days
• 3% of Ebola incubations occur from 21 – 42 days
• 2% of Ebola incubations are not explained (why?)
If this interpretation of the WHO’s statistics are correct, it would mean that:
• 1 in 20 Ebola infections may result in incubations lasting significantly longer than 21 days
• The 21-day quarantine currently being enforced by the CDC is entirely insufficient to halt an outbreak
• People who are released from observation or self-quarantine after 21 days may still become full-blown Ebola patients in the subsequent three weeks, even if they have shown no symptoms of infection during the first 21 days. (Yes, read that again…)
Any declaration that an outbreak is over requires 42 days with no new infections.
$39,643,352 Worth of NIH Funding That Could Have Gone to the Ebola Vaccine
Obama to name longtime political aide as 'Ebola czar,' bypassing senior health official
Ron Klain to be Ebola czar: report
New Patient ‘Screened Positive’ For Ebola At Baylor Hospital, Testing Not Confirmed
Obama: We'll Keep Ebola Out by Letting West Africans In
McConnell wants to stop flights from nations with Ebola outbreaks, supports sending...
Ebola outbreak: How Nigeria is beating the killer virus
Breaking: Ebola Scare at the Pentagon
Dark-lights of the Morning [as hideous as ever -- FR notes]
CDC trucks raise questions in Hickory
Ebola-Handling Healthcare Worker Currently On A Caribbean Cruise Ship
Two male strippers in quarantine after flying with Ebola-stricken nurse faced 81 MINUTE WAIT on CDC
Ebola Stricken Cruise Passenger Denied Entry to Belize
Dallas health official being monitored for Ebola
Fresh fears after passenger flying from to Nigeria to JFK dies in his seat after vomiting profusely
Could YOU be immune to Ebola? Scientists claim some are naturally protected from the virus
Nurse may have had symptoms of Ebola longer than first thought
Army Secretary: 'I Certainly Would Not Suggest to Any Family, Don't Be Worried'
Obama to bring non-American Ebola victims to U.S. for treatment
Update on Carnival Magic "Ebola Patient" cruise
Unreal: With Ebola Crisis Raging, Obama Administration
Second Strain of Ebola Identified in The Congo: Mortality Rate at 71 Percent
Report: Cruise ship carrying Texas Ebola health worker refused entry in Belize
U.S. Soldiers Get Just Four Hours of Ebola Training (Unbelievable!)
(White House Spokesman) Earnest: ‘Maybe Likely’ More Dallas Hospital Workers Will Get Ebola
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-29649572
Keep in mind that there are 4-5 vaccines under development, and the one being developed in Canada is closer to production.
www.ctvnews.ca/health/canada-s-ebola-vaccine-how-does-it-work-1.1959082
IMO the real purpose of the 5000 - 7000 person US military mission in Liberia is to conduct field trials of Ebola vaccines and medications. They'll need controlled populations for true medical trials, which requires convincing the Liberian subjects to stay around to be monitored. The most effective means of doing that is to offer the subjects full medical and subsidence care while they are being monitored.
Which is why the US force is the size it is. They'll probably operate multiple camps for a few hundred medium-term Liberian residents per camp. This will be a humanitarian God-send for the Liberians, as well as making it easy for the US Army medical technicians to monitor the Liberians.
But they need real Ebola vaccines as well as treatment that is more than palliative care, and that means new medications under development. Which there are of both.
The timing of the camp building and projected availability of the Canadian vaccine, plus the known production lead-time for the vaccine based on the Novartis article I posted above, all look like field trials starting in Liberia in January.
This group might include those infected by fomites, wind borne droplets, skin contact (sweaty or dry), or contact with unknown but asymptomatic people or animals
. This is the gray area where we don't know how little it takes to get infected.
We know sure ways to get the disease, but these others are not well understood because the routes of infection are not easily documented (this is the stuff there is no evidence of, but we are being told that absence of evidence precludes anything but the better known vectors).
Allocation of Ebola vaccines and cures may be THE big issue for months in 2015.
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-u-requests-production-plans-ebola-drug-zmapp-183307513--finance.html
"U.S. requests production plans for Ebola drug ZMappby Sharon Begley
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. officials have asked three advanced biology laboratories to submit plans for producing the experimental Ebola drug ZMapp, which ran out after it was given to a handful of medical workers who contracted the disease in West Africa, government and lab officials said on Friday.
The "task order" issued on Thursday by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) asks that detailed plans, including budgets and timetables, be submitted by Nov. 10.
... The U.S. government "is working with partners around the world as quickly as possible to advance the development of multiple vaccine and therapeutic candidates for clinical evaluation and future use in preventing or treating Ebola," BARDA Director Robin Robinson said in a statement.
The three advanced labs, called Centers for Innovation in Advanced Development and Manufacturing, were established by the U.S. government in 2012 with $440 million in seed money. They are required to develop flexible manufacturing capabilities to allow them to produce countermeasures against chemical, biological, and other threats.
One of the three, run by Texas A&M Health Science Center in partnership with Britain's GlaxoSmithKline Plc, "is swiftly responding" to the government request, Dr. Brett Giroir, chief executive officer of the health science center, said in a statement, and will submit detailed proposals for scaling up production of ZMapp.
The other two centers are a facility led by Emergent Biosolutions in Baltimore and another in Holly Springs, North Carolina, led by Swiss drug company Novartis AG."
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