Posted on 08/06/2014 6:49:27 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Remember how CO2 is supposed to cause warmer winters, and warmer nights? Well now CO2 also produces cold snaps. No matter what weather you get, there is a citation to blame CO2. Nature (the formerly great science journal) and Northeastern University have produced another permutation of outputs from models we know are broken.
The first line in the press release is false and smugly so: “most scientists — 97 percent of them, to be exact — agree that the temperature of the planet is rising and that the increase is due to human activities….” 10 seconds on Google would have shown — 60% of geoscientists and engineers don’t agree.
If Kodra and co were trying to be accurate, they could have said “97% of annointed climate scientists agree… “. If they were trying to be scientific, of course, they wouldn’t mention a consensus at all. If they had good evidence, they’d talk about that instead.
They dug deep in The-Book-of-Cliches for the press release. Strip away the advertising spin and I think this is the nub of the work:
“While global temperature is indeed increasing, so too is the variability in temperature extremes. For instance, while each year’s average hottest and coldest temperatures will likely rise, those averages will also tend to fall within a wider range of potential high and low temperate extremes than are currently being observed. This means that even as overall temperatures rise, we may still continue to experience extreme cold snaps…
Essentially, by using a models that didn’t predict the pause, nor the missing hot spot, and with homogenized, reanalyzed data that probably does not resemble the observations, they found something “interesting”. The modern witchdoctors are at work. Runestones, tea-leaves, broken models, what’s the difference?
“The study used simulations from the most recent climate models developed by groups around the world for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and “reanalysis data sets,” which are generated by blending the best available weather observations with numerical weather models. The team combined a suite of methods in a relatively new way to characterize extremes and explain how their variability is influenced by things like the seasons, geographical region, and the land-sea interface. The analysis of multiple climate model runs and reanalysis data sets was necessary to account for uncertainties in the physics and model imperfections.
So because the models don’t work, they did a lot of runs, and because there are infinite ways to reanalyze data, they used several different datasets too. (It’s not like history ever has one correct “temperature”.) They felt the average of all these errors showed something about the variability of artificial simulations of our climate. Bravo.
They also felt they should tell us this big news: “It suggests that the natural processes that drive weather anomalies today could continue to do so in a warming future.” It would have been something special indeed if they found that nature had stopped.
This study was done by “Evan Kodra, PhD’14″. (I guess he must be quite excited about graduating then? Congrats to Evan… )
Evan Kodra & Auroop R. Ganguly | doi:10.1038/srep05884
A statistical analysis reveals projections of consistently larger increases in the highest percentiles of summer and winter temperature maxima and minima versus the respective lowest percentiles, resulting in a wider range of temperature extremes in the future. These asymmetric changes in tail distributions of temperature appear robust when explored through 14 CMIP5 climate models and three reanalysis datasets. Asymmetry of projected increases in temperature extremes generalizes widely. Magnitude of the projected asymmetry depends significantly on region, season, land-ocean contrast, and climate model variability as well as whether the extremes of consideration are seasonal minima or maxima events. An assessment of potential physical mechanisms provides support for asymmetric tail increases and hence wider temperature extremes ranges, especially for northern winter extremes. These results offer statistically grounded perspectives on projected changes in the IPCC-recommended extremes indices relevant for impacts and adaptation studies.
Producing something this bad costs a lot of money — it took some part of $10 million from an “Expeditions in Computing Grant “. An expedition indeed. The duo used, wait for it… “computational tools from Big Data science to systematically examine this aspect of climate change for the first time.” (That’ll show those climate modelers using slide rules with Small Data science. And us naive types who use a spreadsheet.)
It’s water vapor and the only reason they don’t cite it is they cannot control it. CO2? Nonsense! Wait, they will come after water too. Science will no longer be science, but an inquisition against anyone who disagrees. Wait, that is what is happening now, sorry.
What a joke “science” has become.
Yes, EVERYONE knows that greenhouse gasses trap COLD and will not allow it to escape to outer space-—at least for the time being.
We’re the Carbonation Generation!
Pop the top and watch us fizz!
Even Lysenko was plausible...
I thought cow farts and the current volcano’s were the primary reason global warming has stalled for the last 22 years.
I watched a really neat documentary on Netflix the other night called “Particle Fever.” It documents the Large Hadron Collider in Switzerland and the quest to find the Higgs-Boson particle. Theorists from all over the world have their theories and hypotheses about what will be discovered. There is a great scene where one theorists says, “If that is the result (the weight of the particle) then I’m completely wrong and we have to start from scratch.” There were theorists from all over the world debating their theories and pursuing measurements using the new LHC. In other words, these scientists were challenging each other and the science that exists.
Global Warming is the ONLY self declared science that is non-debateable. Anyone who dares question or challenge the “settled science” is cast out as a heretic. Global ‘whatever’ is a superstitious religion. It use to be all manner or terrible things were caused by a succubus, incubus, bad vapors, poisoned humours, misaligned chi, ying yang imbalance...Now, all evil things are caused by carbon and require a statist all powerful government to control. .
Well said.
These environmental wackos sure know how to speak “Bullshit” in explaining their Voodoo Science.
Hot is cold; cold is hot. The sky is falling.
Not Chicken Little, but the new Orwellian “Chicken Shits”.
These environmental wackos sure know how to speak “Bullshit” in explaining their Voodoo Science.
Hot is cold; cold is hot. The sky is falling.
Not Chicken Little, but the new Orwellian “Chicken Shits”.
and hows the weather in New York this week?
It rarely goes over 85, and most of the summer has been below 80. And these past winters have been freezing with snow snow just like it use to be 20 years ago, 30 year ago and 40 years ago (I’m 51)...This whole global warming scam is slowly crashing down on the left and all I want to know is when am I getting back all the money they stole from me in taxes because of it? That fat drunken pig Al Gore made $500 MILLION from this scam, maybe we should all file a class action lawsuit against him for fraud.
CO2 bad! So, which path will fix it? Should the world be deforested to remove that nasty CO2 or should entire cities be leveled to reforest? Which is it?
In the past, it was difficult to find errors in scientific articles. Now it is difficult to find correct statements.
Please do not put us fat drunken pigs in a class with Al Gore. We have some standards of honesty when sober but he has none sober or drunk but he is a fat pig.
Evolution too holds itself as non-debatable.
I believe that we are in the beginning of a long cyclic coming bad winter. It might not be this winter, but it will come, in resemblance to the winters of the 1700’s.
Having polar wind dips, with resultant chills in the middle months of summer, are not ‘anomalies’, but are part of the nation’s recorded weather past.
I am not a ‘college-bred meteoroligist’, but I’ve been alive 62 years, and was taught how to read and gauge the weather, back when the local weather guys had to use all those funny symbols, all the different barometer readings, windspeeds, and area temperatures, to come up with their forecasts, with an occasional slide rule usage.
CO2 is put out by every little plant on the face of the earth. Are they attempting to stop that? NO! Are they attempting to stop Red China, India, and any other 3rd world country from even thinking of producing CO2? NO! Are they thinking of some way to stop any volcano from producing any greenhouse gases? NO!
But are they attempting to stop me from breathing, and producing CO2? I’m sure they are!
Taake a handful of Co2, rub it on your tires and they will never go flat AND the tread wil last 100,000.
Really!
A Gorbul Warming believer assured me the above is true. He is not an unbalanced nutter, either.
He isn’t! He drools out of both sides of his mouth.
Now will you believe me?
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